4 ms·

I feel like there has been a concurrent pandemic of post hoc ergo propter hoc logic since the COVID-19 pandemic started. I can empathize with the desire for ce

I feel like there has been a concurrent pandemic of post hoc ergo propter hoc logic since the COVID-19 pandemic started. I can empathize with the desire for certainty but I feel like alot of the time it might be better just to say we don't know and still do whatever we think will help (e.g. masks, lockdowns).

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
I'd agree with lockdown if it didn't mean draconian measures for uncertain rewards. Precisely because we don't have any clue about it's effectiveness and now know quite a bit about the effects and prevalence of the disease - I think something so drastic should be less accepted. At some point flattening the curve avoiding any death or infection. And that's frankly nonsense and unsustainable. The current world is primed to be fearful.
- bsder 6y ago
  > I'd agree with lockdown if it didn't mean draconian measures for uncertain rewards. Erm, you have a quite concrete reward. New York (and the areas around it) is going to be mostly back to normal with some extra precautions by September. The areas that didn't take this quite so seriously? Well, they're not going to have football season. Congratulations, folks.
  - gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
    I think they're back to normal because they were hit so hard that most vulnerable people died and the rest have considerable immunity. This happened across Europe and elsewhere.
    - woodandsteel 6y ago
      No, testing shows none of the countries are anywhere near herd immunity. They beat the disease back with the standard program of testing, contact tracing, quarantine, social isolation, masks, and so on. The standard program works, and when a region or country doesn't follow it, sooner or later the disease runs wild. If we let that happen in the US, over a million would be dead before the disease was done. Oh, and I bet you think Trump has been correct for months when he says over and over again there is no shortage of tests. But actually we need twice as many as at present for holding steady, and 8 times as many to beat the disease back.
    - bsder 6y ago
      > rest have considerable immunity Data coming out of China is against you. People with mild cases of Covid-19 seem to have very few antibodies left after only a few weeks. Humans seem to have some cross-reactive immunity from other Coronavirii which helps some people, but won't prevent you from getting the disease if you have sufficient exposure. The growing evidence is that herd immunity simply isn't going to happen. This is unsurprising as we never achieved herd immunity to any other Coronavirus.

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago

I'd agree with lockdown if it didn't mean draconian measures for uncertain rewards. Precisely because we don't have any clue about it's effectiveness and now know quite a bit about the effects and prevalence of the disease - I think something so drastic should be less accepted. At some point flattening the curve avoiding any death or infection. And that's frankly nonsense and unsustainable. The current world is primed to be fearful.

bsder 6y ago
> I'd agree with lockdown if it didn't mean draconian measures for uncertain rewards. Erm, you have a quite concrete reward. New York (and the areas around it) is going to be mostly back to normal with some extra precautions by September. The areas that didn't take this quite so seriously? Well, they're not going to have football season. Congratulations, folks.
- gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
  I think they're back to normal because they were hit so hard that most vulnerable people died and the rest have considerable immunity. This happened across Europe and elsewhere.
  - woodandsteel 6y ago
    No, testing shows none of the countries are anywhere near herd immunity. They beat the disease back with the standard program of testing, contact tracing, quarantine, social isolation, masks, and so on. The standard program works, and when a region or country doesn't follow it, sooner or later the disease runs wild. If we let that happen in the US, over a million would be dead before the disease was done. Oh, and I bet you think Trump has been correct for months when he says over and over again there is no shortage of tests. But actually we need twice as many as at present for holding steady, and 8 times as many to beat the disease back.
  - bsder 6y ago
    > rest have considerable immunity Data coming out of China is against you. People with mild cases of Covid-19 seem to have very few antibodies left after only a few weeks. Humans seem to have some cross-reactive immunity from other Coronavirii which helps some people, but won't prevent you from getting the disease if you have sufficient exposure. The growing evidence is that herd immunity simply isn't going to happen. This is unsurprising as we never achieved herd immunity to any other Coronavirus.