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Is there even a shred of credible evidence for any of the following: > Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” > The Amazon is not “the lungs of the

Is there even a shred of credible evidence for any of the following: > Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” > The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world” > Climate change is not making natural disasters worse > Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003 > The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska > The build-up of wood fuel and more houses near forests, not climate change, explain why there are more, and more dangerous, fires in Australia and California > Carbon emissions are declining in most rich nations and have been declining in Britain, Germany, and France since the mid-1970s > Netherlands became rich not poor while adapting to life below sea level > We produce 25% more food than we need and food surpluses will continue to rise as the world gets hotter > Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change > Wood fuel is far worse for people and wildlife than fossil fuels > Preventing future pandemics requires more not less “industrial” agriculture Beyond the literal truth or falsity of the claims, how do they fit together into an argument that shows climate change is not an existential threat to human civilization? Last I checked, there was broad scientific consensus that climate change was real, caused (or, at least exacerbated) by humans, and would have massive impacts on human civilization. And then there's this person coming along and saying "Nahhh, none of this is a problem." Who should I believe?

npongratz 6y ago
FTA: "In reality, the above facts come from the best-available scientific studies, including those conducted by or accepted by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and other leading scientific bodies." I would like to see those studies as well; wish the claims were better sourced.
magneticnorth 6y ago
Agree - some of these really, really need some sources - e.g. humans are not causing a "sixth mass extinction"? Is he arguing that there's not a threat of mass extinction, or that it's not human caused? Either way I'd love to see the reassuring evidence. Some of these seem true(ish) but misleading - isn't habitat loss often driven by climate change? And as far as I know no one is advocating a switch from fossil fuels to wood fuels; the fact that wood is worse is orthogonal to the fact that fossil fuels are problematic and nuclear, wind, and/or solar are often a better solution.
aquova 6y ago
I get the impression that this guy is primarily out to sell his book, which he spends quite a bit of time talking about how great it is. As for the points he mentions, some are clearly false. > The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska With global population trends, even if average meat consumption is starting to decrease, the amount of livestock raised will still increase. I actually found it difficult to find a good measurement, but this site seemed to be credible https://ourworldindata.org/land-use https://ourworldindata.org/land-use > Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003 This seems to be untrue, at least in the US - https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica... > Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change > Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” Which is it? Are we not causing any issues, or are we destroying native habitats? In the end, I don't really know who this guy is, but for all the fundraising he did as a teenager, I don't think he's doing environmentalists any favors anymore.
- iamstupidsimple 6y ago
  Developed nations are shrinking. Why won't global population do the same, long term?
  - pmiller2 6y ago
    Bold of you to assume we'll reach the long term.
yongjik 6y ago
> Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” Just from skimming about the Holocene extinction[1], with mountains of documented evidences from every continent, denying its existence seems untenable. I'm not even sure why the author started with this line, because it instantly cuts his reliability by 90%. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction
czzr 6y ago
This is the key point - even if all these claims are true, they don’t add up to any coherent argument about the substance of climate change. At best they seem to be arguing against some cultural sub-trends, such as those who argue for “organic farming” or are “anti-nuclear”, or those who make some mistakes such as overestimating the contribution of the Amazon to global oxygen production. Perhaps some of the more breathless claims are overstated, but none of that materially changes the climate change argument. I wonder what he is trying to achieve.
- timmytokyo 6y ago
  The very article makes it clear that one thing he's trying to achieve is to sell his book.
boogies 6y ago
I believe there's a "broad scientific consensus" that the climate isn't staying exactly the same and human's effect on it is existent, but could someone please cite a source claiming there's "broad scientific consensus" that it "would have massive impacts on human civilization"? Edit: Here's an oldish article: "Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don’t Trust the Media’s Coverage of Climate Change" https://web.archive.org/web/20100111104946/http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html https://web.archive.org/web/20100111104946/http://stats.org/... Edit 2: "In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. 97% of the scientists surveyed agreed that global temperatures had increased during the past 100 years; 84% said they personally believed human-induced warming was occurring, and 74% agreed that "currently available scientific evidence" substantiated its occurrence. Catastrophic effects in 50–100 years would likely be observed according to 41%, while 44% thought the effects would be moderate and about 13 percent saw relatively little danger. 5% said they thought human activity did not contribute to greenhouse warming." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change#Surveys_of_scientists_and_scientific_literature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climat... (Edit²: emphasis added)
- pmiller2 6y ago
  What would you accept as evidence of a "broad scientific consensus" that climate change "would have massive effects on human civilization"? It's not 84% like the number you cite who believe humans contribute, but the 41% figure you cite does tell me that roughly 1 in 2 climate scientists think we're doomed if we do nothing. I would call that a broad consensus, given that a huge majority believe there will be at least a "moderate" effect on human civilization. Incidentally, why are the choices "catastrophic effect," "moderate effect," "relatively little danger," and "humans aren't contributing to climate change, anyway?" Why is there nothing in between "moderate" and "catastrophic" effect? That seems a little suspect to me.
mooshmoosh 6y ago
I think the "fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003" is referring to this: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-d... It's till 2015, not till 2020, and the explanation for the fall is 4 paragraphs in. It seems to be a move away from slash and burn agriculture and towards more modern, permanent farming.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
> Netherlands became rich not poor while adapting to life below sea level Yes, there is credible evidence, at least for that one.
- pmiller2 6y ago
  I believe it, but this is the least relevant of any of the rather broad claims the author is making without citation other than "see my book." What happened in a single, tiny European country that wasn't exactly poor to begin with is unlikely to scale worldwide as sea levels rise.
belorn 6y ago
> The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world” 50-80% of atmospheric oxygen are estimated to come from algae and cyanobacteria in the ocean. This seems pretty clear cut. - http://www.greenlineprint.com/blog/where-are-the-lungs-of-the-earth http://www.greenlineprint.com/blog/where-are-the-lungs-of-th... > Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change 1: Illegal wildlife trade, 2: Habitat destruction, 3: Invasive species, 4: Pollution, 5: climate change. While I could see an argument that the ordering is incorrect depending on scope, the numbers from 1-3 is pretty clear from an short term perspective as being the major issues right now. - https://www.wanderlust.co.uk/content/biggest-threats-to-wildlife/ https://www.wanderlust.co.uk/content/biggest-threats-to-wild... The other ones I am more unsure about. I would had guessed that Netherlands status as a rich country came from their past as a colonial empire, but it might be correct that it is because their current status as an massive exporter of farmed food. That statement is likely scope dependent.

npongratz 6y ago

FTA: "In reality, the above facts come from the best-available scientific studies, including those conducted by or accepted by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and other leading scientific bodies." I would like to see those studies as well; wish the claims were better sourced.

magneticnorth 6y ago

Agree - some of these really, really need some sources - e.g. humans are not causing a "sixth mass extinction"? Is he arguing that there's not a threat of mass extinction, or that it's not human caused? Either way I'd love to see the reassuring evidence. Some of these seem true(ish) but misleading - isn't habitat loss often driven by climate change? And as far as I know no one is advocating a switch from fossil fuels to wood fuels; the fact that wood is worse is orthogonal to the fact that fossil fuels are problematic and nuclear, wind, and/or solar are often a better solution.

aquova 6y ago

I get the impression that this guy is primarily out to sell his book, which he spends quite a bit of time talking about how great it is. As for the points he mentions, some are clearly false. > The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska With global population trends, even if average meat consumption is starting to decrease, the amount of livestock raised will still increase. I actually found it difficult to find a good measurement, but this site seemed to be credible https://ourworldindata.org/land-use https://ourworldindata.org/land-use > Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003 This seems to be untrue, at least in the US - https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indica... > Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change > Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” Which is it? Are we not causing any issues, or are we destroying native habitats? In the end, I don't really know who this guy is, but for all the fundraising he did as a teenager, I don't think he's doing environmentalists any favors anymore.

iamstupidsimple 6y ago
Developed nations are shrinking. Why won't global population do the same, long term?
- pmiller2 6y ago
  Bold of you to assume we'll reach the long term.

yongjik 6y ago

> Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” Just from skimming about the Holocene extinction[1], with mountains of documented evidences from every continent, denying its existence seems untenable. I'm not even sure why the author started with this line, because it instantly cuts his reliability by 90%. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

czzr 6y ago

This is the key point - even if all these claims are true, they don’t add up to any coherent argument about the substance of climate change. At best they seem to be arguing against some cultural sub-trends, such as those who argue for “organic farming” or are “anti-nuclear”, or those who make some mistakes such as overestimating the contribution of the Amazon to global oxygen production. Perhaps some of the more breathless claims are overstated, but none of that materially changes the climate change argument. I wonder what he is trying to achieve.

timmytokyo 6y ago
The very article makes it clear that one thing he's trying to achieve is to sell his book.

boogies 6y ago

I believe there's a "broad scientific consensus" that the climate isn't staying exactly the same and human's effect on it is existent, but could someone please cite a source claiming there's "broad scientific consensus" that it "would have massive impacts on human civilization"? Edit: Here's an oldish article: "Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don’t Trust the Media’s Coverage of Climate Change" https://web.archive.org/web/20100111104946/http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html https://web.archive.org/web/20100111104946/http://stats.org/... Edit 2: "In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. 97% of the scientists surveyed agreed that global temperatures had increased during the past 100 years; 84% said they personally believed human-induced warming was occurring, and 74% agreed that "currently available scientific evidence" substantiated its occurrence. Catastrophic effects in 50–100 years would likely be observed according to 41%, while 44% thought the effects would be moderate and about 13 percent saw relatively little danger. 5% said they thought human activity did not contribute to greenhouse warming." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change#Surveys_of_scientists_and_scientific_literature https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climat... (Edit²: emphasis added)

pmiller2 6y ago
What would you accept as evidence of a "broad scientific consensus" that climate change "would have massive effects on human civilization"? It's not 84% like the number you cite who believe humans contribute, but the 41% figure you cite does tell me that roughly 1 in 2 climate scientists think we're doomed if we do nothing. I would call that a broad consensus, given that a huge majority believe there will be at least a "moderate" effect on human civilization. Incidentally, why are the choices "catastrophic effect," "moderate effect," "relatively little danger," and "humans aren't contributing to climate change, anyway?" Why is there nothing in between "moderate" and "catastrophic" effect? That seems a little suspect to me.

mooshmoosh 6y ago

I think the "fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003" is referring to this: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-detect-a-global-drop-in-fires https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/90493/researchers-d... It's till 2015, not till 2020, and the explanation for the fall is 4 paragraphs in. It seems to be a move away from slash and burn agriculture and towards more modern, permanent farming.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago

> Netherlands became rich not poor while adapting to life below sea level Yes, there is credible evidence, at least for that one.

pmiller2 6y ago
I believe it, but this is the least relevant of any of the rather broad claims the author is making without citation other than "see my book." What happened in a single, tiny European country that wasn't exactly poor to begin with is unlikely to scale worldwide as sea levels rise.

belorn 6y ago

> The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world” 50-80% of atmospheric oxygen are estimated to come from algae and cyanobacteria in the ocean. This seems pretty clear cut. - http://www.greenlineprint.com/blog/where-are-the-lungs-of-the-earth http://www.greenlineprint.com/blog/where-are-the-lungs-of-th... > Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change 1: Illegal wildlife trade, 2: Habitat destruction, 3: Invasive species, 4: Pollution, 5: climate change. While I could see an argument that the ordering is incorrect depending on scope, the numbers from 1-3 is pretty clear from an short term perspective as being the major issues right now. - https://www.wanderlust.co.uk/content/biggest-threats-to-wildlife/ https://www.wanderlust.co.uk/content/biggest-threats-to-wild... The other ones I am more unsure about. I would had guessed that Netherlands status as a rich country came from their past as a colonial empire, but it might be correct that it is because their current status as an massive exporter of farmed food. That statement is likely scope dependent.