The Kelly Criterion is for making repeated bets on similar offered odds and probability of winning. Admittedly, it's harder to calculate your probability of wi

The Kelly Criterion is for making repeated bets on similar offered odds and probability of winning. Admittedly, it's harder to calculate your probability of winning in a stock market bubble than it is at the roulette wheel; but you can still do your best and use that number. If the rest wasn't clear, your offered odds are the delta in stock price minus the transaction costs.