4 ms·

I thought China would wait to take Taiwan first, so they could limit resistance in Taiwan by saying "we'll let you have your own system like we did in Hong Kong

I thought China would wait to take Taiwan first, so they could limit resistance in Taiwan by saying "we'll let you have your own system like we did in Hong Kong." Now that China has reneged on Hong Kong, Taiwan won't believe them.

chrischen 6y ago
That's basically exactly what happened with the last presidential election. The pro-China (conservative) party was heavily favored to win and then suddenly the Hong Kong protests ignited and reminded Taiwanese about China and the pro-USA party (liberals) ended up winning in a landslide.
- Teknoman117 6y ago
  I hope we (the US) can clean up our act so we can go back to having at least some credibility in the world again. (other than just being rich and having a lot of guns) I'd love for us to be worthy of the praise we get from some places. I can't say that I've been particularly "proud" to say that I'm an American when I started travelling abroad a few years ago. Hard for people to miss though, I sound like a stereotypical Midwestern radio announcer. Well, maybe except for that one very plastered German guy who kept yelling at us for being English at Oktoberfest.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - yung0 6y ago
    "at least some credibility in the world again." Might have to go back about 80 years.
    - dang 6y ago
      We've banned this account for political and nationalistic flamewar. If you don't want to be banned, you're welcome to email hn@ycombinator.com and give us reason to believe that you'll follow the rules in the future. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- est 6y ago
  > The pro-China (conservative) party was heavily favored to win Contrary to popular belief, mainland Chinese often hate the pro-Beijing party. Because all they want is more economical gain, rather than political unification. Some radicals even advocate Tsai's presidency and urge her to declare independence so PLA could have a Casus Belli to invade.
  - koheripbal 6y ago
    This exactly - and one of Xi's main goals is to take back Taiwan this century. This will likely include some degree of subterfuge exactly like this - and will probably happen when the US is distracted by divisive internal conflict.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
yung0 6y ago
This reads like a child's understanding of international relations.
- ralph84 6y ago
  This reads like an ad hominem.
politicdone 6y ago
they would have reneged had they not promulgated a law. the basic law which Britain and China agreed to and produced before 1997 requires article 23 and says matters of defense and foreign affairs are the responsibilities of the central government. it's not hard to consider that matters of national security also responsibilities of the central government. Hong Kong failed to fulfill its duty under the agreement. this law added to annex 3 is not a substitute for Hong Kong's unenacted article 23. it is there because Hong Kong failed to enact its own legislation. the notion that this is China breaking the basic law or the joint declaration is just fuel to stoke the fires of anti-china sentiment to distract from problems at home. this sort of emotive fake news is required in a democratic system as people need to be compelled to vote as well as not focus on undelivered results. what is occurring now in HK is only the inevitable consequence of the joint declaration and the basic law to which all parties agreed and about which no other country ever complained until now. isn't it a little hypocritical that countries want to protect their own national security then object when China wants to protect its? who's unhappy with a plan to catch a thief? only the thief. so who wants to make up such stories? only those who need to keep their people focused on the next two minutes of hate
- yung0 6y ago
  Western intellectuals and liberals don't listen to logic in matters concerning enemies of the US government. A purely emotional response, always.
koheripbal 6y ago
At the moment, there is no reasonably practical strategy for "taking" Taiwan. Hong Kong on the other hand - they probably thought they could get away with it under Trump, but maybe not under Biden, so best to do it now. Short term diplomatic "outrage" - long term gain.

chrischen 6y ago

That's basically exactly what happened with the last presidential election. The pro-China (conservative) party was heavily favored to win and then suddenly the Hong Kong protests ignited and reminded Taiwanese about China and the pro-USA party (liberals) ended up winning in a landslide.

Teknoman117 6y ago
I hope we (the US) can clean up our act so we can go back to having at least some credibility in the world again. (other than just being rich and having a lot of guns) I'd love for us to be worthy of the praise we get from some places. I can't say that I've been particularly "proud" to say that I'm an American when I started travelling abroad a few years ago. Hard for people to miss though, I sound like a stereotypical Midwestern radio announcer. Well, maybe except for that one very plastered German guy who kept yelling at us for being English at Oktoberfest.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- yung0 6y ago
  "at least some credibility in the world again." Might have to go back about 80 years.
  - dang 6y ago
    We've banned this account for political and nationalistic flamewar. If you don't want to be banned, you're welcome to email hn@ycombinator.com and give us reason to believe that you'll follow the rules in the future. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
est 6y ago
> The pro-China (conservative) party was heavily favored to win Contrary to popular belief, mainland Chinese often hate the pro-Beijing party. Because all they want is more economical gain, rather than political unification. Some radicals even advocate Tsai's presidency and urge her to declare independence so PLA could have a Casus Belli to invade.
- koheripbal 6y ago
  This exactly - and one of Xi's main goals is to take back Taiwan this century. This will likely include some degree of subterfuge exactly like this - and will probably happen when the US is distracted by divisive internal conflict.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

yung0 6y ago

This reads like a child's understanding of international relations.

ralph84 6y ago
This reads like an ad hominem.

politicdone 6y ago

they would have reneged had they not promulgated a law. the basic law which Britain and China agreed to and produced before 1997 requires article 23 and says matters of defense and foreign affairs are the responsibilities of the central government. it's not hard to consider that matters of national security also responsibilities of the central government. Hong Kong failed to fulfill its duty under the agreement. this law added to annex 3 is not a substitute for Hong Kong's unenacted article 23. it is there because Hong Kong failed to enact its own legislation. the notion that this is China breaking the basic law or the joint declaration is just fuel to stoke the fires of anti-china sentiment to distract from problems at home. this sort of emotive fake news is required in a democratic system as people need to be compelled to vote as well as not focus on undelivered results. what is occurring now in HK is only the inevitable consequence of the joint declaration and the basic law to which all parties agreed and about which no other country ever complained until now. isn't it a little hypocritical that countries want to protect their own national security then object when China wants to protect its? who's unhappy with a plan to catch a thief? only the thief. so who wants to make up such stories? only those who need to keep their people focused on the next two minutes of hate

yung0 6y ago
Western intellectuals and liberals don't listen to logic in matters concerning enemies of the US government. A purely emotional response, always.

koheripbal 6y ago

At the moment, there is no reasonably practical strategy for "taking" Taiwan. Hong Kong on the other hand - they probably thought they could get away with it under Trump, but maybe not under Biden, so best to do it now. Short term diplomatic "outrage" - long term gain.