I may not have made it clear enough, the Spectator was just an article I found equally flawed as TFA but from the opposite perspective. So basically I agree wit

I may not have made it clear enough, the Spectator was just an article I found equally flawed as TFA but from the opposite perspective. So basically I agree with the faults you found with that article. We are absolutely seeing an uptick in cases. Compared to early April we are also testing a lot more, and I’m not sure that the average positivity rate across the US is higher now than it was, e.g. April 1, but at a local level there are definitely places where this is true. Certainly positivity rate has increased dramatically since, e.g. June 1 in many places. We don’t see a concomitant increase in death rates because most cases must be in the 20-30 yrs age range, probably due to that age range predominantly being the ones going out in large groups over the last month. I think everyone is looking for the right balance of policies that minimizes overall suffering and loss of life. I’m not sure which European countries you would consider having locked down “early” rather than “late”. The decision to open economies at this point seems purely a political one and no longer based on objective facts like hospital capacity. I think the simple fact is the US saw a surge over the last month because millions of young adults held truly massive rallies. If rallies subside or the population becomes substantially infected and then immune, case counts will fall rapidly. That age range is largely unaffected by SARS-CoV-2 and the US doesn’t have a large number of multi-generational households, so luckily I think the case counts amount to a lot of smoke with little fire.