TBH that's true for the original article too. I feel that most of these opinion pieces are 'just so' post-facto explanations. I'd rather have a prediction marke

TBH that's true for the original article too. I feel that most of these opinion pieces are 'just so' post-facto explanations. I'd rather have a prediction market where people put predictions and confidence values along with detailed explanations, and then we can see in a few years how things play along. It's very easy to make confident pronouncements when they are basically unfalsifiable.