6 ms·

> so small and unimportant that some say the EU faces an existential crisis as a result of its departure Eh, exactly who is facing existential crisis over UK l

> so small and unimportant that some say the EU faces an existential crisis as a result of its departure Eh, exactly who is facing existential crisis over UK leaving? No signs of any of that here on mainland.

mellosouls 6y ago
From my reading of several articles, some have raised the question that Brexit will be a potential path-setter for other dissatisfied EU members (for whatever reason), but the general tone has been that it's unlikely. So the EU probably isn't facing an existential crisis due to Brexit but it's significant enough to raise those questions.
- toyg 6y ago
  The effect has been the opposite - Brexit single-handedly wiped the anti-European elements of most populist parties on the continent, in a similar way as the Greek crisis wiped most anti-Euro objections. When power imbalances are revealed in such stark contrast, people tend to go with the bigger guy.
  - nicky0 6y ago
    Temporarily at least. A lot will depend on whether Britain makes a success of Brexit or not.
  - Ma8ee 6y ago
    Did the Greek crisis wipe most anti-Euro objections? How? At least for me the Greek crisis tipped me over to the side that thinks the Euro was a colossal mistake. (I’m strong proponent of the EU, but the euro only works well for Germany).
    - toyg 6y ago
      Countries that were flirting with the idea of backtracking on the Euro, like Italy and (to a lesser degree) Spain, have effectively removed the item from their political agenda for the time being. It has become radioactive in electoral terms. Even the anti-EU (and Putin-backed) parties stopped mentioning it. People are scared shitless of ending up like Greece did in those fateful weeks, without functioning banks and with a bankrupt State. It’s better to have an expensive mortgage for a solid house, than living for free in a shack. The Euro is not perfect but you cannot realistically have a strong EU in the long run without a common currency. More tweaking is absolutely necessary (and effectively happening, slowly and under the political cover of this or that crisis, by introducing more mechanisms to move more money out of Germany), but losing a common currency would be the end of the project.
      - Ma8ee 6y ago
        You do know that a big part of EU isn’t in the Euro zone? The problem with the Euro is that countries can’t devalue their currency to become competitive after any bubble. So Greek, Spain etc. have to suffer much more than necessary. Not only Southern European countries that some argue had themselves to blame, but also countries like Finland. Germany who’s goods are cheaper on the global market is of course happy.
        toyg 6y ago
        > You do know that a big part of EU isn’t in the Euro zone? Technically they are all committed, one way or the other, to eventually join - the only exception being Denmark. It's also mandatory for any new member. In practice, Eurozone governments already set the overall economic policies for the block (since they command a large majority and have their own institutions, formal and informal), so staying out is effectively a substantial loss of power and influence. This process will likely speed up now that the largest "holdout" economy (the UK) has left. > The problem with the Euro is that countries can’t devalue their currency I know the current Euro structure is not balanced; the solution is not to abandon the project, but to compensate with improvements like shared debt, more transfers, and a reform of the ECB. Some of these are slowly slotting into place already. The model for European development must be the US - where you would never argue for, say, North Dakota to switch to some Mud-Pizza currency to escape budgetary issues.
        Ma8ee 6y ago
        No, they aren't committed one way or another. Why do you believe so? Thinking that the Eurozone governments is one block that votes as one and therefore get larger influence is also wrong. Often there's a larger division between north and south Europe than it is between Euro and non-Euro countries. Yes, the Euro could work with much more transfers between the countries, including shared social security. But I have a hard time believing that German voters ever will vote for a government that allows their savings help paying Greek or Spanish social security. But maybe I am wrong there. The US is such a crappy example right now. It was not long ago that their president suggested that the states that couldn't handle the economic hardship of the pandemic just simply declared bankruptcy.
- jnurmine 6y ago
  Brexit becoming a path-setting event encouraging other EU members would only happen if Great Britain gets a visibly good deal while EU makes a visibly lousy deal. However, it would make absolutely no sense for the EU to make such a deal that benefits Great Britain more than EU. Leaving the EU must be seen to have its consequences; political, economical and otherwise. The question to ask then is: is it reasonable to expect Great Britain to get a good deal? The answer is no, a good deal won't happen. The EU will negotiate, but only to get more gains, they won't agree on anything that is even remotely bad for the EU. The EU doesn't need to accept just any deal for the sake of a deal. And actually, to me it looks like the EU is content with a no deal as a starting point. If they get anything else, nice. If not, shrug. My reading from the British newspapers and articles is that the pro-Brexit elements of the GB government have an almost cargo cult like belief in Great Britain carving out a fantastically awesome deal, somehow emerging as the sole victor from the process and taking down the EU in flames as they go. I don't see any way how this could happen unless the high leadership of EU were to somehow sell out the entire block in favor of British interests. It is simply not going to happen. As for more speculative thoughts, I think the next big things in a post-Brexit Great Britain will be Scotland becoming independent and also perhaps joining the EU later down the line; the two Irelands probably end up doing something similar.
  - TomMarius 6y ago
    > Leaving the EU must be seen to have its consequences; political, economical and otherwise. This is the reason why I despise politics, states and superstates, and am leaning to the anarchist side. No, it absolutely makes sense to make a deal that is good for both sides. These are people and their lives you're playing with. The EU 'sending a message' by fucking UK over with its political/economical might is a mafia move, straight out of Putin's playbook, and the EU told us it was different. I am very disappointed and probably won't trust the EU ever again (that's been ongoing since the Lisboa agreement, though). (Am EU citizen)
    - burmanm 6y ago
      You forgot so soon that the EU did not start this process? UK was given opportunities, they did not want them.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  I think people was more concerned about that three years ago before Brexit became the long embarrassing debacle it is now.

mellosouls 6y ago

From my reading of several articles, some have raised the question that Brexit will be a potential path-setter for other dissatisfied EU members (for whatever reason), but the general tone has been that it's unlikely. So the EU probably isn't facing an existential crisis due to Brexit but it's significant enough to raise those questions.

toyg 6y ago
The effect has been the opposite - Brexit single-handedly wiped the anti-European elements of most populist parties on the continent, in a similar way as the Greek crisis wiped most anti-Euro objections. When power imbalances are revealed in such stark contrast, people tend to go with the bigger guy.
- nicky0 6y ago
  Temporarily at least. A lot will depend on whether Britain makes a success of Brexit or not.
- Ma8ee 6y ago
  Did the Greek crisis wipe most anti-Euro objections? How? At least for me the Greek crisis tipped me over to the side that thinks the Euro was a colossal mistake. (I’m strong proponent of the EU, but the euro only works well for Germany).
  - toyg 6y ago
    Countries that were flirting with the idea of backtracking on the Euro, like Italy and (to a lesser degree) Spain, have effectively removed the item from their political agenda for the time being. It has become radioactive in electoral terms. Even the anti-EU (and Putin-backed) parties stopped mentioning it. People are scared shitless of ending up like Greece did in those fateful weeks, without functioning banks and with a bankrupt State. It’s better to have an expensive mortgage for a solid house, than living for free in a shack. The Euro is not perfect but you cannot realistically have a strong EU in the long run without a common currency. More tweaking is absolutely necessary (and effectively happening, slowly and under the political cover of this or that crisis, by introducing more mechanisms to move more money out of Germany), but losing a common currency would be the end of the project.
    - Ma8ee 6y ago
      You do know that a big part of EU isn’t in the Euro zone? The problem with the Euro is that countries can’t devalue their currency to become competitive after any bubble. So Greek, Spain etc. have to suffer much more than necessary. Not only Southern European countries that some argue had themselves to blame, but also countries like Finland. Germany who’s goods are cheaper on the global market is of course happy.
      - toyg 6y ago
        > You do know that a big part of EU isn’t in the Euro zone? Technically they are all committed, one way or the other, to eventually join - the only exception being Denmark. It's also mandatory for any new member. In practice, Eurozone governments already set the overall economic policies for the block (since they command a large majority and have their own institutions, formal and informal), so staying out is effectively a substantial loss of power and influence. This process will likely speed up now that the largest "holdout" economy (the UK) has left. > The problem with the Euro is that countries can’t devalue their currency I know the current Euro structure is not balanced; the solution is not to abandon the project, but to compensate with improvements like shared debt, more transfers, and a reform of the ECB. Some of these are slowly slotting into place already. The model for European development must be the US - where you would never argue for, say, North Dakota to switch to some Mud-Pizza currency to escape budgetary issues.
        Ma8ee 6y ago
        No, they aren't committed one way or another. Why do you believe so? Thinking that the Eurozone governments is one block that votes as one and therefore get larger influence is also wrong. Often there's a larger division between north and south Europe than it is between Euro and non-Euro countries. Yes, the Euro could work with much more transfers between the countries, including shared social security. But I have a hard time believing that German voters ever will vote for a government that allows their savings help paying Greek or Spanish social security. But maybe I am wrong there. The US is such a crappy example right now. It was not long ago that their president suggested that the states that couldn't handle the economic hardship of the pandemic just simply declared bankruptcy.
jnurmine 6y ago
Brexit becoming a path-setting event encouraging other EU members would only happen if Great Britain gets a visibly good deal while EU makes a visibly lousy deal. However, it would make absolutely no sense for the EU to make such a deal that benefits Great Britain more than EU. Leaving the EU must be seen to have its consequences; political, economical and otherwise. The question to ask then is: is it reasonable to expect Great Britain to get a good deal? The answer is no, a good deal won't happen. The EU will negotiate, but only to get more gains, they won't agree on anything that is even remotely bad for the EU. The EU doesn't need to accept just any deal for the sake of a deal. And actually, to me it looks like the EU is content with a no deal as a starting point. If they get anything else, nice. If not, shrug. My reading from the British newspapers and articles is that the pro-Brexit elements of the GB government have an almost cargo cult like belief in Great Britain carving out a fantastically awesome deal, somehow emerging as the sole victor from the process and taking down the EU in flames as they go. I don't see any way how this could happen unless the high leadership of EU were to somehow sell out the entire block in favor of British interests. It is simply not going to happen. As for more speculative thoughts, I think the next big things in a post-Brexit Great Britain will be Scotland becoming independent and also perhaps joining the EU later down the line; the two Irelands probably end up doing something similar.
- TomMarius 6y ago
  > Leaving the EU must be seen to have its consequences; political, economical and otherwise. This is the reason why I despise politics, states and superstates, and am leaning to the anarchist side. No, it absolutely makes sense to make a deal that is good for both sides. These are people and their lives you're playing with. The EU 'sending a message' by fucking UK over with its political/economical might is a mafia move, straight out of Putin's playbook, and the EU told us it was different. I am very disappointed and probably won't trust the EU ever again (that's been ongoing since the Lisboa agreement, though). (Am EU citizen)
  - burmanm 6y ago
    You forgot so soon that the EU did not start this process? UK was given opportunities, they did not want them.
Ma8ee 6y ago
I think people was more concerned about that three years ago before Brexit became the long embarrassing debacle it is now.