4 ms·

This is not how it works. You cannot "shift" cases into summer. The cases you "shifted" into summer will become the origin of the second wave - i.e. the more yo

This is not how it works. You cannot "shift" cases into summer. The cases you "shifted" into summer will become the origin of the second wave - i.e. the more you have it now the more you have it in October or September. I also keep hearing about "hundreds of thousands of death due to side effects of quarantine" and have not seen a single reputable study regarding that. The lowest death rate first of all is still very high, and secondly, it is because the demographic has shifted towards younger population. It will go up back soon. The best thing to do now is a) universal masking; b) close the businesses, causing biggest trouble, such as bars.

chrisco255 6y ago
There's no proof masks stop the spread. There's immense economic damage for shutting down businesses for a year or two, would likely trigger an economic collapse worse than Great Depression, and I have yet to see any scientific evidence that bars are the hot spots for spreading the disease right now.
- SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
  To get a proof about masks ust search the Google by the relevant keywords. Speaking of bars - just switch the news channel on, all the latest outbrakes are from bars and nightclubs. And that would be considered science by the way, just not made by degreed scientists. Unless of course someone is a conspiracy theorist, and distrust the local news when they go to some bar in Michigan, to make a report about a closure.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    Check out Sweden's results: http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/sweden_uk20jun.html http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/sweden_uk20jun.html You really just download your opinions from the top 10 results on Google and whatever the anchor person tells you? Fascinating. As for scientists, they do not agree on this point at all. The virus is nanometers thick and can easily sail through the vast majority of facial coverings people are using. It also easily becomes useless when worn for long periods of time, or when adjusting the mask with your hand or when eating or drinking, etc. How much of the outbreaks are attributed to the massive gatherings and protests of people over the past few weeks? Why are bars blamed for this?
    - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
      Swden results? Are you serious? The last country you need to listen to is Sweden (and it is not because their approach, it is because they kept saying things, which turned out to be false: covid won't hit Sweden, there will be little number of victims etc.). If someone wants for whatever reason consult Scandinavian sources, it is better be Norway or Finland. When I google something, I of course check only trustworthy sources such as CDC, Lancet, NHS etc. And they happen to come first by the way. Of course it can pass through. It does not to protect you mostly, it protects the others from your droplets, and also dramatically lowers the speed and momentum of the air and viral particles, because of air friction in the layers of textile. As the result, the particles do not fly too far from your mouth. Yes you are right, if you misuse, they become less useful for you personally; therefore do not adjust them with dirty hands, and change every 2 hours, as I do. Still, even misused mask prevents the others from you exhaled air and droplets. One thing though I agree with that gatherings (be it BLM or Trumps rallies) were harmful and probably more than bars. But they are already the past. Right now we need to think about the present.
      - armagon 6y ago
        It seems to me that the mass gatherings are ongoing -- not just in the past, but in the present and in the future. I know I read an article as the protests went on that said, "if we don't see an uptick in cases a couple of weeks from now, we need to re-evaluate what we know about the virus" and, more recently, I see articles that say, "there haven't been upticks in the virus due to the mass protests." Which leads me to conclude: 1) there is something we don't understand about the virus, 2) there is something we don't understand about the protests or protesters, or 3) the articles are not congruent with the real situation. Explanations might include: the virus doesn't transmit well outdoors; the protesters were in a demographic that didn't get or didn't notice getting the disease; the protesters have not been tested for the disease; the disease was not present at the protests; the reporter didn't have the facts; or, the reporter did not report facts because of some countering (most likely political) belief. I'm still perplexed about this. Wouldn't mind flexing some data science muscles but I don't have the time and my skills aren't up to snuff. If anyone has some clarity, please share!
zaroth 6y ago
> This is not how it works. You cannot "shift" cases into summer. Herd immunity is not binary, it’s a spectrum. Every person walking around with antibodies suppresses the R factor that much more. IMO this is a big reason new cases have been so low in NYC - so many people walking around with immunity it’s now highly suppressed. > I also keep hearing about "hundreds of thousands of death due to side effects of quarantine" and have not seen a single reputable study regarding that. Well, for example, the NY Times reported about 1/3 of excess deaths in NY were due to quarantine; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-new-jersey.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronaviru... And that’s just the immediate effects of quarantine. The long-term effects are actually worse.

chrisco255 6y ago

There's no proof masks stop the spread. There's immense economic damage for shutting down businesses for a year or two, would likely trigger an economic collapse worse than Great Depression, and I have yet to see any scientific evidence that bars are the hot spots for spreading the disease right now.

SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
To get a proof about masks ust search the Google by the relevant keywords. Speaking of bars - just switch the news channel on, all the latest outbrakes are from bars and nightclubs. And that would be considered science by the way, just not made by degreed scientists. Unless of course someone is a conspiracy theorist, and distrust the local news when they go to some bar in Michigan, to make a report about a closure.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  Check out Sweden's results: http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/sweden_uk20jun.html http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/sweden_uk20jun.html You really just download your opinions from the top 10 results on Google and whatever the anchor person tells you? Fascinating. As for scientists, they do not agree on this point at all. The virus is nanometers thick and can easily sail through the vast majority of facial coverings people are using. It also easily becomes useless when worn for long periods of time, or when adjusting the mask with your hand or when eating or drinking, etc. How much of the outbreaks are attributed to the massive gatherings and protests of people over the past few weeks? Why are bars blamed for this?
  - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
    Swden results? Are you serious? The last country you need to listen to is Sweden (and it is not because their approach, it is because they kept saying things, which turned out to be false: covid won't hit Sweden, there will be little number of victims etc.). If someone wants for whatever reason consult Scandinavian sources, it is better be Norway or Finland. When I google something, I of course check only trustworthy sources such as CDC, Lancet, NHS etc. And they happen to come first by the way. Of course it can pass through. It does not to protect you mostly, it protects the others from your droplets, and also dramatically lowers the speed and momentum of the air and viral particles, because of air friction in the layers of textile. As the result, the particles do not fly too far from your mouth. Yes you are right, if you misuse, they become less useful for you personally; therefore do not adjust them with dirty hands, and change every 2 hours, as I do. Still, even misused mask prevents the others from you exhaled air and droplets. One thing though I agree with that gatherings (be it BLM or Trumps rallies) were harmful and probably more than bars. But they are already the past. Right now we need to think about the present.
    - armagon 6y ago
      It seems to me that the mass gatherings are ongoing -- not just in the past, but in the present and in the future. I know I read an article as the protests went on that said, "if we don't see an uptick in cases a couple of weeks from now, we need to re-evaluate what we know about the virus" and, more recently, I see articles that say, "there haven't been upticks in the virus due to the mass protests." Which leads me to conclude: 1) there is something we don't understand about the virus, 2) there is something we don't understand about the protests or protesters, or 3) the articles are not congruent with the real situation. Explanations might include: the virus doesn't transmit well outdoors; the protesters were in a demographic that didn't get or didn't notice getting the disease; the protesters have not been tested for the disease; the disease was not present at the protests; the reporter didn't have the facts; or, the reporter did not report facts because of some countering (most likely political) belief. I'm still perplexed about this. Wouldn't mind flexing some data science muscles but I don't have the time and my skills aren't up to snuff. If anyone has some clarity, please share!

zaroth 6y ago

> This is not how it works. You cannot "shift" cases into summer. Herd immunity is not binary, it’s a spectrum. Every person walking around with antibodies suppresses the R factor that much more. IMO this is a big reason new cases have been so low in NYC - so many people walking around with immunity it’s now highly suppressed. > I also keep hearing about "hundreds of thousands of death due to side effects of quarantine" and have not seen a single reputable study regarding that. Well, for example, the NY Times reported about 1/3 of excess deaths in NY were due to quarantine; https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-new-jersey.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/01/us/coronaviru... And that’s just the immediate effects of quarantine. The long-term effects are actually worse.