That's not how I judge likelihood at all. If you were to say that there is more mathematical wiggle room for other explanations, I would be more likely to agre

That's not how I judge likelihood at all. If you were to say that there is more mathematical wiggle room for other explanations, I would be more likely to agree, but simply having to change models has no impact on likelihood. That thinking would make Quantum Mechanics, Special Relativity, Natural Selection, or Genetics unlikely. Your argument could even be used to explain why it's more likely that the earth is flat because that's the intuitive model.