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> What exactly do we gain from building better model of climate change? Knowing where it's going to hit us hard? No? Models are useful for making predictions.
by fluffything 6y ago
> What exactly do we gain from building better model of climate change? Knowing where it's going to hit us hard?
No? Models are useful for making predictions.
If somebody like the POTUS tells you that nuking thunderstorms would be great against climate change, you don't have to just take their word for it. You can input that into your climate change model, and it will tell you how much of an impact this will have, and whether the impact is good or bad.
The difference between a better model and a worse model is that the better model will agree better with reality.
A shitty model, like the one POTUS is using, might tell you that nuking all thunderstorms would be great. Then we go ahead and do it, and we all die.
A better model, like the mental model that every 14 year old child that starts studying physics and radiation has, might tell you that nuking thunderstorms is a pretty bad idea that would kill us all due to dozens of reasons.
Given that we cannot make accurate predictions today of what the weather tomorrow will look like. If you want to predict the 50 year impact of more subtle changes like, e.g., covering the Sahara with black mats, you need a pretty good model to get an output that isn't multiple orders of magnitude off.
So..... what do we expect from better climate change models? Avoiding the apocalypse to begin with. Worth every penny.
- X6S1x6Okd1st 6y ago>If somebody like the POTUS tells you that nuking thunderstorms would be great against climate change, you don't have to just take their word for it. You can input that into your climate change model, and it will tell you how much of an impact this will have, and whether the impact is good or bad. You have an odd concept of both how to determine if nuking a thunderstorm, which was not what was allegedly suggested, but also what large scale climate models actually capture.
- trekrich 6y agoAnd this is the problem with climate change models, they are just models. And get changed to suit the narrative thats currently being portrayed. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dozens-failed-climate-predictions-stretch-80-years-back https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dozens-failed-climate-pr... All this based on models, and look how wrong they where.
- TJSomething 6y agoAll non-random decisions are made against models of the world. Some of those models are more detailed than others. All detailed models are made by people who care a lot and have interests at stake. It's not possible to make decisions outside the context of a narrative.
- trekrich 6y agoexactly, so why believe climate models? They are biased one way or the other?
- fluffything 6y agoWhy believe any model? Just act completely random. Don't wake up, and go to your job, under the assumption that you will get paid. Don't avoid jumping down a 15 stories building under the assumption that you will die. Don't breathe. Your model is biased towards breathing.