7 ms·

"Believing people without symptoms didn't spread the virus, the agency limited testing, discouraged masking..." This is false by Fauci's own account (see below

by ed-209 6y ago

"Believing people without symptoms didn't spread the virus, the agency limited testing, discouraged masking..." This is false by Fauci's own account (see below interview) in which he states mask wearing was discouraged in order to secure availability for health workers. This is no small distinction as it raises questions about the importance of public trust/credibility during a health crisis. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0XHC5Kxxv_w https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0XHC5Kxxv_w

DanBC 6y ago
Can you link to the meta-analysis or RCT of mask wearing that were already published in March, or April, or June? But also, see this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-...
- gameswithgo 6y ago
  for covid in particular? it was widely known generally that masks reduce the spread of that class of virus.
- afthonos 6y ago
  Common sense dictates that the base belief should be “something that prevents my breath from going as far should be effective at reducing spread of an airborne illness.” The null hypothesis should be that masks help; alternatively, the prior should favor masks.
Icedcool 6y ago
This is critical. Personally as a result I’ve lost trust with the organization, and the statements they make.
ReticentVole 6y ago
There are a minimal number of excess deaths now associated with COVID, so what is the problem? Allowing the community to acquire immunity naturally during Summer is a good way to minimise the spread of the virus come Winter. COVID severity seems heavily linked with Vitamin D levels, so lockdown during Summer would possibly have been counter-productive for the general population. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Why should Governments force people into lockdown for a virus with a CFR of 0.26%, marginally more deadly than the Flu at 0.1%? In particular, COVID deaths are concentrated at those aged 70+ with existing health conditions, so broad-scale lockdown and enforced mask wearing doesn't make sense - when targeted support for the elderly and vulnerable would be effective and less disruptive.
- dvdkhlng 6y ago
  Looking at the "Weekly number of deaths" plot in the page you linked, I think what it says is, that the number of all-cause /excess/ deaths throughout april and may is more than 100 thousand people. This is without looking at the actual cause of death, but given the corona situation and lack of other factors explaining such an unusual rise in mortality, I'd assume that most of those excess deaths are in fact somehow related to COVID. Note also that the same mortality "signal" is much stronger in highly populated areas, e.g. New York City [1] and I don't see how this can be explained away as a "minimal number of excess deaths" or something "marginally more deadly" than the Flu. [1] https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/shared/P2PJTPX2D https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/sha...
- OminousWeapons 6y ago
  Regardless of your view on the necessity of mask wearing or lockdowns, the CDC should be releasing accurate information about the efficacy of treatments and prophylaxis, period. It is absolutely unacceptable to be lying to the public because it is politically convenient or because the government wants to steer the public in a certain direction. Whether masks fundamentally work or not has nothing to do with how many masks we happen to have at hand.
- darkerside 6y ago
  In a theoretical world this makes a ton of sense. In a world where people grow accustomed to life as usual, fail to make adjustments BEFORE flu season, and we end up with the virus having a kick-started boost to start flu season, we're heading full speed into a brick wall. If we can slow down beforehand, yes, we probably make beneficial progress towards herd immunity (albeit minimal). But in a leadership vacuum with an election ahead, this doesn't look good to me.
- tsimionescu 6y ago
  > There are a minimal number of excess deaths now associated with COVID, so what is the problem? I don't usually use such language on HN, but this is absolutely delusional. Covid19 has killed more people in 6 months, with lockdowns, than Malaria did all of last year. More than a third of those deaths are in the US. How can you possibly in good conscience claim this is even remotely comparable to the Flu?
throwaway062820 6y ago
Which is crazy, because in March the U.S. was shipping more masks overseas than at any point in the past decade[1], masks started getting recommended while there still was a PPE shortage, and after masks were recommended it seems like very few were N95 masks. So why were leaders at the time discouraging Americans from even wearing homemade cloth masks? It's hard to tell whether or not they were lying to us at the time in order to pursue a poorly thought out strategy or if they're lying to us now to defend their poor decisions (I'm guessing the latter). [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/05/08/u-s-companies-kept-shipping-masks-overseas-despite-warnings/3090505001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/05/0...
- Threeve303 6y ago
  It's difficult not to get cynical and conspiratorial when looking at the combination of political changes in the U.S., racial conflict, and the populations hit hardest by covid. Things like ventilators being confiscated and disinformation campaigns (hydroxychloroquine), preventing mail in voting, etc.. all seem very strange additions to the pandemic. Then you have social media driven protests where large numbers of the populations hardest hit by covid are rightfully protesting police brutality. The flip side of this is that hopefully these protests were not less than organic with the intent to spread the virus among the protesters. The total numbers of people dead are awful now, especially among the hardest hit populations. What's it going to look like if this doesn't stop in another year or two?
glenneroo 6y ago
Further in the article, this detail is mentioned (albeit without the reference to Fauci's own account): > But following the CDC’s playbook on flu pandemics, Messonnier discouraged the public from using face masks, echoing similar advice from the WHO and US Surgeon General Jerome Adams. Since masks were thought to prevent the transmission of a virus from coughing, health officials feared a run on surgical masks would keep them from reaching vulnerable public health workers in hospitals, where most infectious patients driving a coronavirus outbreak would be located. > In April, facing increasing pressure from public health experts, the CDC urged Americans to don cloth masks, citing the asymptomatic transmission risk first noted by Redfield and Fauci at the end of January. But the damage was done: Months later, the initial confusion over the utility of widespread use of face coverings has only made masks more of a political flashpoint.

by ed-209 6y ago

DanBC 6y ago

Can you link to the meta-analysis or RCT of mask wearing that were already published in March, or April, or June? But also, see this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-spread-asymptomatic.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/world/europe/coronavirus-...

gameswithgo 6y ago
for covid in particular? it was widely known generally that masks reduce the spread of that class of virus.
afthonos 6y ago
Common sense dictates that the base belief should be “something that prevents my breath from going as far should be effective at reducing spread of an airborne illness.” The null hypothesis should be that masks help; alternatively, the prior should favor masks.

Icedcool 6y ago

This is critical. Personally as a result I’ve lost trust with the organization, and the statements they make.

ReticentVole 6y ago

There are a minimal number of excess deaths now associated with COVID, so what is the problem? Allowing the community to acquire immunity naturally during Summer is a good way to minimise the spread of the virus come Winter. COVID severity seems heavily linked with Vitamin D levels, so lockdown during Summer would possibly have been counter-productive for the general population. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Why should Governments force people into lockdown for a virus with a CFR of 0.26%, marginally more deadly than the Flu at 0.1%? In particular, COVID deaths are concentrated at those aged 70+ with existing health conditions, so broad-scale lockdown and enforced mask wearing doesn't make sense - when targeted support for the elderly and vulnerable would be effective and less disruptive.

dvdkhlng 6y ago
Looking at the "Weekly number of deaths" plot in the page you linked, I think what it says is, that the number of all-cause /excess/ deaths throughout april and may is more than 100 thousand people. This is without looking at the actual cause of death, but given the corona situation and lack of other factors explaining such an unusual rise in mortality, I'd assume that most of those excess deaths are in fact somehow related to COVID. Note also that the same mortality "signal" is much stronger in highly populated areas, e.g. New York City [1] and I don't see how this can be explained away as a "minimal number of excess deaths" or something "marginally more deadly" than the Flu. [1] https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/shared/P2PJTPX2D https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/sha...
OminousWeapons 6y ago
Regardless of your view on the necessity of mask wearing or lockdowns, the CDC should be releasing accurate information about the efficacy of treatments and prophylaxis, period. It is absolutely unacceptable to be lying to the public because it is politically convenient or because the government wants to steer the public in a certain direction. Whether masks fundamentally work or not has nothing to do with how many masks we happen to have at hand.
darkerside 6y ago
In a theoretical world this makes a ton of sense. In a world where people grow accustomed to life as usual, fail to make adjustments BEFORE flu season, and we end up with the virus having a kick-started boost to start flu season, we're heading full speed into a brick wall. If we can slow down beforehand, yes, we probably make beneficial progress towards herd immunity (albeit minimal). But in a leadership vacuum with an election ahead, this doesn't look good to me.
tsimionescu 6y ago
> There are a minimal number of excess deaths now associated with COVID, so what is the problem? I don't usually use such language on HN, but this is absolutely delusional. Covid19 has killed more people in 6 months, with lockdowns, than Malaria did all of last year. More than a third of those deaths are in the US. How can you possibly in good conscience claim this is even remotely comparable to the Flu?

throwaway062820 6y ago

Which is crazy, because in March the U.S. was shipping more masks overseas than at any point in the past decade[1], masks started getting recommended while there still was a PPE shortage, and after masks were recommended it seems like very few were N95 masks. So why were leaders at the time discouraging Americans from even wearing homemade cloth masks? It's hard to tell whether or not they were lying to us at the time in order to pursue a poorly thought out strategy or if they're lying to us now to defend their poor decisions (I'm guessing the latter). [1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/05/08/u-s-companies-kept-shipping-masks-overseas-despite-warnings/3090505001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/05/0...

Threeve303 6y ago
It's difficult not to get cynical and conspiratorial when looking at the combination of political changes in the U.S., racial conflict, and the populations hit hardest by covid. Things like ventilators being confiscated and disinformation campaigns (hydroxychloroquine), preventing mail in voting, etc.. all seem very strange additions to the pandemic. Then you have social media driven protests where large numbers of the populations hardest hit by covid are rightfully protesting police brutality. The flip side of this is that hopefully these protests were not less than organic with the intent to spread the virus among the protesters. The total numbers of people dead are awful now, especially among the hardest hit populations. What's it going to look like if this doesn't stop in another year or two?

glenneroo 6y ago

Further in the article, this detail is mentioned (albeit without the reference to Fauci's own account): > But following the CDC’s playbook on flu pandemics, Messonnier discouraged the public from using face masks, echoing similar advice from the WHO and US Surgeon General Jerome Adams. Since masks were thought to prevent the transmission of a virus from coughing, health officials feared a run on surgical masks would keep them from reaching vulnerable public health workers in hospitals, where most infectious patients driving a coronavirus outbreak would be located. > In April, facing increasing pressure from public health experts, the CDC urged Americans to don cloth masks, citing the asymptomatic transmission risk first noted by Redfield and Fauci at the end of January. But the damage was done: Months later, the initial confusion over the utility of widespread use of face coverings has only made masks more of a political flashpoint.