5 ms·

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-s... you’re gonna

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-s... you’re gonna have to nav down and play with some toggles but I’ve enjoyed using their data. Also you’re gonna need to tune your radar towards Texas, Florida, Arizona and others, the New York line is only going to have a couple more weeks of legs.

tathougies 6y ago
So Texas and Florida have 7-day moving average daily death rates lower than New York. Texas's has been stable for a few weeks now. Texas and Florida have fewer exposures, so less herd immunity than New York. But really all of this is a distraction. The point of the shutdowns we were told was to prevent cases from growing out of control so as not to overwhelm hospitals. No region of the United States, including New York had overwhelmed hospitals that required patients to be triaged out of the ICU. In other words, no one who needed an ICU bed in the US was denied one. That was the point of the lockdowns. It is still the point. That Texas and Florida's rate is rising is not an indication that they are mismanaging their states. Even with the rising cases they have hospital capacity. In fact, before cases were rising they were at a very low historical hospital capacity. While the numbers seem scary (one hospital in TX is at 97% utilization), they also have plans to add a lot more ICU beds. Thus, they have been successful in accomplishing the initially stated goal -- not to overwhelm hospitals. Unless a vaccine is found -- and this is still a big if -- at some point every geography is going to have to come to terms with the fact that you have to either choose between never opening up to anything resembling freedom of movement or letting the disease take its course -- hopefully controllably. The US -- and most countries -- have currently chosen to let the disease take its course in a controlled manner. For the most part, that goal is being achieved, it would seem.
- awinder 6y ago
  Deaths trail cases, Texas and Florida currently have 10x the new cases as New York not adjusted for population. You’re making very basic mistakes with numbers, presumably to coach them towards the point you want to make.
  - tathougies 6y ago
    You're also coaching numbers. The point of the lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. 10x new cases in Texas and Florida while new York is trending down is not hugely surprising. It also doesn't say much both states are also testing more. Also population wise both are more populous. Either way... The point being to not overwhelm hospitals.. The question isn't whether they have 10x the amount of cases as ny now. Its whether they can handle the hospital numbers.
    - awinder 6y ago
      No, some people actually understand how the numbers interplay with a real scenario, which is why I gave you the raw numbers to see what you did. And you immediately jumped in and drew an illogical conclusion to support your point. You’re spreading disinformation. If you need to do this to make yourself feel better, do it. But don’t become a spreader.
      - tathougies 6y ago
        What was my illogical conclusion? Can you please reiterate what conclusion you think im trying to reach? My only point is That the point of the lockdowns was not to overwhelm hospitals and even with the increases in tx and fl, they are unlikely to do so? How is that illogical? I do not deny the rise on cases in those states. What i question is whether that means theyve failed in achieving their original goal of not overwhelming hospitals.

tathougies 6y ago

So Texas and Florida have 7-day moving average daily death rates lower than New York. Texas's has been stable for a few weeks now. Texas and Florida have fewer exposures, so less herd immunity than New York. But really all of this is a distraction. The point of the shutdowns we were told was to prevent cases from growing out of control so as not to overwhelm hospitals. No region of the United States, including New York had overwhelmed hospitals that required patients to be triaged out of the ICU. In other words, no one who needed an ICU bed in the US was denied one. That was the point of the lockdowns. It is still the point. That Texas and Florida's rate is rising is not an indication that they are mismanaging their states. Even with the rising cases they have hospital capacity. In fact, before cases were rising they were at a very low historical hospital capacity. While the numbers seem scary (one hospital in TX is at 97% utilization), they also have plans to add a lot more ICU beds. Thus, they have been successful in accomplishing the initially stated goal -- not to overwhelm hospitals. Unless a vaccine is found -- and this is still a big if -- at some point every geography is going to have to come to terms with the fact that you have to either choose between never opening up to anything resembling freedom of movement or letting the disease take its course -- hopefully controllably. The US -- and most countries -- have currently chosen to let the disease take its course in a controlled manner. For the most part, that goal is being achieved, it would seem.

awinder 6y ago
Deaths trail cases, Texas and Florida currently have 10x the new cases as New York not adjusted for population. You’re making very basic mistakes with numbers, presumably to coach them towards the point you want to make.
- tathougies 6y ago
  You're also coaching numbers. The point of the lockdowns were to not overwhelm hospitals. 10x new cases in Texas and Florida while new York is trending down is not hugely surprising. It also doesn't say much both states are also testing more. Also population wise both are more populous. Either way... The point being to not overwhelm hospitals.. The question isn't whether they have 10x the amount of cases as ny now. Its whether they can handle the hospital numbers.
  - awinder 6y ago
    No, some people actually understand how the numbers interplay with a real scenario, which is why I gave you the raw numbers to see what you did. And you immediately jumped in and drew an illogical conclusion to support your point. You’re spreading disinformation. If you need to do this to make yourself feel better, do it. But don’t become a spreader.
    - tathougies 6y ago
      What was my illogical conclusion? Can you please reiterate what conclusion you think im trying to reach? My only point is That the point of the lockdowns was not to overwhelm hospitals and even with the increases in tx and fl, they are unlikely to do so? How is that illogical? I do not deny the rise on cases in those states. What i question is whether that means theyve failed in achieving their original goal of not overwhelming hospitals.