4 ms·

I agree with you about rational weight of risks. However there is a possibly implicit meaning that you consider the current efforts of preventing transmission

I agree with you about rational weight of risks. However there is a possibly implicit meaning that you consider the current efforts of preventing transmission of the virus to be overkill. Possibly in other parts of the world a little more measure and give might have been the best response in hindsight, but knowing what we did know then, rather than now, I believe most places* (in the 'first' world) made the correct adjustments. The USA is one of the places that had a fragmented, and insufficient overall, response. History will record how things were historically the worst in this country due to many factors. Among those factors, anti-intellectualism as a driving force in politics, which contibuted to rigidly sticking to bureaucratic processes rather than scientific evidence and results oriented decision making. Another is an absolute failure to modernize and take a long-term investment stance across many government agencies and processes: often lead by a reluctance to be socially responsible.

jackcosgrove 6y ago
There was a thread about the Swedish government's response a month or two ago which argued that Sweden was overly reliant on an evidence-based approach. The thrust of the argument being that there was insufficient evidence at the time to determine a meaningful response; we were flying blind. I'm bringing this up because the reasoning is the same as yours (policy should be evidence-based) and yet the outcome of that reasoning is so different.
tathougies 6y ago
Overall... The vast majority of the states have done really well. The us average is thrown off by a few states -- not even the largest states. I'm not sure where people get this idea the us has done poorly. New York and surrounds did terribly mainly due to not following issued guidance. But even with them pulling up the average, the us has done fine. If new York had closed down when told and then followed federal guidance about sending people to nursing homes, the US would be lightyears ahead of other countries In terms of testing, death rate, positivity rate, death rate amongst confirmed vases, the us has done as well or better than many developed nations. Could the us have done better? Absolutely. But we also are doing at least average... If not downright better. Can you cite per capita numbers in relation to other developed globalized countries?
- awinder 6y ago
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-s... you’re gonna have to nav down and play with some toggles but I’ve enjoyed using their data. Also you’re gonna need to tune your radar towards Texas, Florida, Arizona and others, the New York line is only going to have a couple more weeks of legs.
  - tathougies 6y ago
    So Texas and Florida have 7-day moving average daily death rates lower than New York. Texas's has been stable for a few weeks now. Texas and Florida have fewer exposures, so less herd immunity than New York. But really all of this is a distraction. The point of the shutdowns we were told was to prevent cases from growing out of control so as not to overwhelm hospitals. No region of the United States, including New York had overwhelmed hospitals that required patients to be triaged out of the ICU. In other words, no one who needed an ICU bed in the US was denied one. That was the point of the lockdowns. It is still the point. That Texas and Florida's rate is rising is not an indication that they are mismanaging their states. Even with the rising cases they have hospital capacity. In fact, before cases were rising they were at a very low historical hospital capacity. While the numbers seem scary (one hospital in TX is at 97% utilization), they also have plans to add a lot more ICU beds. Thus, they have been successful in accomplishing the initially stated goal -- not to overwhelm hospitals. Unless a vaccine is found -- and this is still a big if -- at some point every geography is going to have to come to terms with the fact that you have to either choose between never opening up to anything resembling freedom of movement or letting the disease take its course -- hopefully controllably. The US -- and most countries -- have currently chosen to let the disease take its course in a controlled manner. For the most part, that goal is being achieved, it would seem.
    - awinder 6y ago
      Deaths trail cases, Texas and Florida currently have 10x the new cases as New York not adjusted for population. You’re making very basic mistakes with numbers, presumably to coach them towards the point you want to make.

jackcosgrove 6y ago

There was a thread about the Swedish government's response a month or two ago which argued that Sweden was overly reliant on an evidence-based approach. The thrust of the argument being that there was insufficient evidence at the time to determine a meaningful response; we were flying blind. I'm bringing this up because the reasoning is the same as yours (policy should be evidence-based) and yet the outcome of that reasoning is so different.

tathougies 6y ago

Overall... The vast majority of the states have done really well. The us average is thrown off by a few states -- not even the largest states. I'm not sure where people get this idea the us has done poorly. New York and surrounds did terribly mainly due to not following issued guidance. But even with them pulling up the average, the us has done fine. If new York had closed down when told and then followed federal guidance about sending people to nursing homes, the US would be lightyears ahead of other countries In terms of testing, death rate, positivity rate, death rate amongst confirmed vases, the us has done as well or better than many developed nations. Could the us have done better? Absolutely. But we also are doing at least average... If not downright better. Can you cite per capita numbers in relation to other developed globalized countries?

awinder 6y ago
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mapping-s... you’re gonna have to nav down and play with some toggles but I’ve enjoyed using their data. Also you’re gonna need to tune your radar towards Texas, Florida, Arizona and others, the New York line is only going to have a couple more weeks of legs.
- tathougies 6y ago
  So Texas and Florida have 7-day moving average daily death rates lower than New York. Texas's has been stable for a few weeks now. Texas and Florida have fewer exposures, so less herd immunity than New York. But really all of this is a distraction. The point of the shutdowns we were told was to prevent cases from growing out of control so as not to overwhelm hospitals. No region of the United States, including New York had overwhelmed hospitals that required patients to be triaged out of the ICU. In other words, no one who needed an ICU bed in the US was denied one. That was the point of the lockdowns. It is still the point. That Texas and Florida's rate is rising is not an indication that they are mismanaging their states. Even with the rising cases they have hospital capacity. In fact, before cases were rising they were at a very low historical hospital capacity. While the numbers seem scary (one hospital in TX is at 97% utilization), they also have plans to add a lot more ICU beds. Thus, they have been successful in accomplishing the initially stated goal -- not to overwhelm hospitals. Unless a vaccine is found -- and this is still a big if -- at some point every geography is going to have to come to terms with the fact that you have to either choose between never opening up to anything resembling freedom of movement or letting the disease take its course -- hopefully controllably. The US -- and most countries -- have currently chosen to let the disease take its course in a controlled manner. For the most part, that goal is being achieved, it would seem.
  - awinder 6y ago
    Deaths trail cases, Texas and Florida currently have 10x the new cases as New York not adjusted for population. You’re making very basic mistakes with numbers, presumably to coach them towards the point you want to make.