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The U.S. Has Officially Unflattened the Curve
- redis_mlc 6y agoStill flat in Calif., same for months.
- minimaxir 6y agoNope; CA is one of the highest-growing states. The Bay Area was flat, but it just spiked yesterday and reopening is now paused.
- redis_mlc 6y agoNope, just checked the data on the Santa Clara hospitalizations link - only the number of tests is increasing, not admissions or mortality. Same for months. The press is saying one thing, but the official stats say flat - month after month. I guess newspapers value outrage over public service. You would need a magnifying glass to see anything significant. Only 72 hospitalized patients today (2,278 more available), historical average is a little less. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx Shame on HN for letting non-technical people dictate public policy with a false narrative. If anybody told me that a technical group the size of HN in 2019 was this oblivious, I would have been skeptical. But here we are - the center of SV refuses to actually read a graph, month after month. Can somebody explain that to me? Is everybody else incapacitated with fear, virtue signalling, mass hysteria, or what is behind that? Dr. VDH, who noticed the above in parallel with me, said something like, "[We're captive to 1%'ers who have a nice life and feel it's unfair they could lose that.]" Is that it? Destroy our economy for individual selfishness? Do I need to make a video on how to read the graphs?
- EliRivers 6y agoHopefully this undermines your belief that technical people are in some way immune to all the biases, emotions, fears, hopes and general humanity of people at large. Frequently, they're worse; they believe themselves to be hyper-rational cyborgs driven purely by evidence, giving themselves carte blanche to assume they're unaffected and thus don't even need to examine their own thinking. Yes, I too am a mental mess and use reasoning and convenient choice of evidence to justify decisions and opinions I already formed.
- hcknwscommenter 6y agoThe person you are approvingly replying to is overconfident and wrong.
- mikestew 6y agoThe person you replied to deserves for you to reread their comment if you think they are "approvingly replying".
- redis_mlc 6y agoI gave you the official stats link. I check it twice per week, including today. Wrong how? Or do you mean, "not-SJW enough for my taste"?
- hcknwscommenter 6y agoWrong how you ask? Wrong in the way that hospitalizations in SANTA CLARA only are a woefully inappropriate way to "support" your original contention that CASES in CALIFORNIA were flat.
- hcknwscommenter 6y agoAre you serious? You seem dangerously self-absorbed and misinformed. Your original comment referred to CALIFORNIA. Now you are arguing about Santa Clara hospitalizations (a very lagging indicator), which is many levels different from your original (and incredibly incorrect) point.
- m_mueller 6y agoAs always with the types of people who are in denial about environmental risks: They are constantly moving the goal posts when you try to argue with them. Not a psychologist but I think this is some sort of defense mechanism of the brain.
- redis_mlc 6y agoSanta Clara plus SF is 4 million people, and represents most of NorCal. If what I said is incorrect, why don't you provide some actual data?
- hcknwscommenter 6y agoYou are monumentally misinformed. You have cherry picked parts of California that are handling the surge the best. Why don't you look South? Oh that's right, it disproves your point.
- IAmGraydon 6y agoI'll just put the data in front of you and let you decide: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test Go to the chart for California. Percent positive tests and hospitalizations are the most important factors here. Hospitalizations have gone up, undoubtedly (from 4,500 to now almost 6,000). That said, percent positive tests has remained flat. Deaths in CA also continue to trend down. What conclusion do you draw from that? To me, it appears that the concentration of Covid in the population of California has not increased. At the same time, there are more hospitalizations. Perhaps Covid is not getting worse in CA, but more people are finding out that they have it due to increased testing and are then going to the hospital out of an abundance of caution. As an aside, you and the guy you're replying to are obviously extremely emotional about this. Learn to recognize that and realize that if you're feeling emotional when looking at data, some part of your brain cares way too much to remain objective. Both of you are clearly biased.
- hcknwscommenter 6y agoWhat information vacuum do you live in that makes you think that your statement is true?
- redis_mlc 6y agoThe official Santa Clara stats, as linked above, which represents 4 million people, most of NorCal. That's right - 72 people hospitalized for corona for 4 million people. What crisis? What are you reading?
- hcknwscommenter 6y agoI am not limiting my analysis to Santa Clara because I am not deluding myself.
- rwbhn 6y ago"California coronavirus hospitalizations jump 32% in two weeks" https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-25/newsom-coronavirus-hospitalizations-increasing-testing https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-25/newsom-c...
- vondur 6y agoThey don’t mention hospitalization or deaths. Those are the two to keep track of. I’m guessing far more people are getting tested than previously, hence the larger numbers.
- troydavis 6y ago> I’m guessing far more people are getting tested than previously, hence the larger numbers. Nationally that may be a contributing factor, but in hotspot states, the % of tests which are positive has actually gone up significantly: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states and select Florida or Arizona
- ketanmaheshwari 6y agoThe deaths are increasing too. 2500+ people passed away yesterday (June 25) in the US.
- fullshark 6y agoFrom all causes? Covid number is lower https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- Marsymars 6y agoThat can't be from all causes, there are around 8,000 deaths per day in the US from all causes.
- averros 6y agoThe deaths ATTRIBUTED to COVID-19. Not necessarily deaths FROM it. The difference is huge, as vast majority of people reported as died from COVID-19 were, in fact, seriously ill already, so the viral infection was a minor factor (or a last straw). Considering that hospitals have financial incentives to attribute deaths to COVID-19 thanks to the government largesse, it is not surprising that all these ambiguous cases are reported as COVID-19 deaths now. For all other illnesses the standards for reporting are quite different.
- nine_zeros 6y agoThis explains it: https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1276172320965636099/photo/1 https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1276172320965636099/... Jokes aside, I'm afraid this is truly the administration and leadership that will take down the US for good. We somehow made it through Bush Jr and Clinton but by golly, this administration cannot do anything constructive.
- krapp 6y agoGive us liberty, and give us death!
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- carterklein13 6y agoI have to say, living in NYC I'm pretty thankful for the quarantine requirement from anyone coming in from outside the tri-state area. I like to at least think we're on the downswing, although who really knows. It's not like anyone will listen anyway, but it's a nice thought...
- atyppo 6y agoFYI, only applies if coming from high-risk states. This included nine states originally. Not sure if further states have been added.
- habanany 6y agoTexas, California and Florida among the states with more tests
- tibbydudeza 6y agoWear a mask and do social distancing ... jeepers it is not difficult.
- ngcc_hk 6y agoNeed both raw and averages. But not ease for reporter. Stat telling “lies” and the truth at the same time. And said you have to dig in. Like % of test positive per test, death and hospitalised vs recovery. The fundamental is you want to use a number to say it all, but one number cannot tell the truth in many situation. One might not work, even simple like average vs median and mode. And a random bell shaped curve need two parameters. Multiple angles are hard.
- salmon30salmon 6y agoWe. Shut. Down. Too. Early. In. Most. Places. For the love of God. Texas didn't have an outbreak when they shutdown! Nor did Oregon, or California. That is the difference. All of Europe shut down _after the virus had already grown exponentially_ in most places. We shut down Oregon when there were fewer than 100 cases. After three months of being shut down in Oregon the curve had nowhere to go but up! What in the hell did people expect? We shut down before there is spread, wait three months and then reopen. How is that a plan? Did anyone really expect that places where shutdowns were early and strong would somehow come out unscathed? It has been true since day 1. You either need to shut down HARD until there is a vaccine (not possible, not sustainable, more deaths caused by this) or you deal with the surge of cases and do your best to protect the elderly/vulnerable. What you don't do is panic, shut down too early, burn through all your money and political capital, reopen and then be all "golly gee there are cases now!". If we had waited until there was growth in cases, we could shutdown and actually flatten the curve enough to handle the shock to the system. It is so. damn. frustrating. that this isn't more obvious to people. What materially changed between today and March 1? Lockdowns where a bad idea from there start as there is no way to continue them until there is a vaccine. I am very curious to see if NY and the other early hot spots avoid a resurgence like Europe has. That is what I am most interested now. If they do, perhaps the folks who are talking about cross-reactive immunity are on to something.
- craftinator 6y agoI think the intent from the chief medical advisors (Fauci et al) was to slow the spread to the point where people would continue to get sick, but at a constant and manageable rate. But it's a very tricky thing, turning an exponential process into a linear one; especially when you don't actually know what the exponential is. Of course they couldn't come out and say this without being crucified, but I can't imagine that they simply didn't think ahead towards an outcome; doctors and researches are very much outcome-conscious. Unfortunately, our lovely politicians are, for the most part, math illiterate, and PR-conscious. So here we are.
- perl4ever 6y agoBy and large, places that weren't hit as hard as NY and western Europe assumed that they had some inherent privilege or immunity, and many of them are being proved wrong. It's a basic human behavioral characteristic. Even if you don't understand why you are better off than someone else, the default assumption is that you are intrinsically better. It might be true! But it's dangerous to assume it when you don't know the reason why. So I think it's more of a tragic flaw of human nature than a particularly unlucky failure of timing. The other issue with human nature is that people need feedback, so when you have 2-4 weeks of delay in the loop, things get out of control. You have weeks of believing falsehoods before reality starts to kick in.
- thearchitect1 6y agoJeez the protests really took their toll
- throwaway6734 6y agoIf that were the case wouldn't we see a surge in places like NYC as well?
- Crye 6y agoIt's not apparent that the protest caused this sort of growth in infection. Plus you'd expect to see growth occuring simultaneously in places like New York and Seattle, which just isn't the case like Florida, Arizona, and Texas. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/24/883017035/what-contact-tracing-may-tell-about-cluster-spread-of-the-coronavirus https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- fallingfrog 6y ago47341 new cases yesterday. Skyrocketing fast. But you know, gotta reopen everything to keep the stock market happy.
- twblalock 6y agoNo, we have to reopen so people can have jobs and feed their children and pay their housing bills.
- fallingfrog 6y agoI really don’t understand why we’re not doing full contract tracing right now, especially in for example my state where there are only 50 new cases a day. Are we really going to wait till it’s 5000 to do something? It’s like there’s just literally nobody in a position of power with any initiative whatsoever.
- rsynnott 6y agoAre they really not doing contact tracing? In this country we've been contact tracing all cases since they fell to manageable numbers. It's expensive, but not all _that_ expensive in the scheme of things.