2 ms·

That kind of rationalization can take you to literally any conclusion though. Especially with something as complex as climate change.

by Groxx 6y ago

rwmj 6y ago
Absolutely, it is quite likely bogus. I would love to know if the website really meant to connect this to climate change, and if so what the mechanism is.
- Zenst 6y ago
  What is needed is a graph of global lightning strikes increasing inline with global temperature rise and that does not exist, afaik - globally lightning strikes have been consistent year on year. But nowt jumping out google wise and would of thought if lighting increased, we would know. Equally if the strength of lightning increased, that would also be measured and known. However there is data of lightning in some area's increasing, others less so and does seem to balance out, but not clear cut data set to know for sure upon that one.
bdamm 6y ago
Increased thunderstorms is a fairly straight forward consequence of more heat in the atmosphere. Thunderstorm formation is basically enormous thermals/dust devils that keep growing. More heat == more vigorous thermals == more thunderstorms if the atmosphere is primed to create thunderstorms. Yes there is more to it, cumulus clouds form, convection sets up, etc, but the basic mechanism of a heat source triggering a convective storm is pretty well developed. Obviously there are a lot of variables at play so it wouldn't surprise me if there are not well conducted studies at this point.
- kaybe 6y ago
  There are many modelling studies I can find at first glance, eg this one (including references to older studies): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0072-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0072-6 > 'Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. [...] In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario.' or eg this one using data: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682618306229?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13646... > 'Many published analyses show that lightning activity is responsive to temperature on time scales ranging from the diurnal to the decadal. The hiatus in global warming is manifest in several global datasets in the decadal period 2002–2013. The statistically flat behavior of the global lightning record from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor over the same period is consistent with this hiatus in global warming.'

That kind of rationalization can take you to literally any conclusion though. Especially with something as complex as climate change.

by Groxx 6y ago

That kind of rationalization can take you to literally any conclusion though. Especially with something as complex as climate change.

rwmj 6y ago

Absolutely, it is quite likely bogus. I would love to know if the website really meant to connect this to climate change, and if so what the mechanism is.

Zenst 6y ago
What is needed is a graph of global lightning strikes increasing inline with global temperature rise and that does not exist, afaik - globally lightning strikes have been consistent year on year. But nowt jumping out google wise and would of thought if lighting increased, we would know. Equally if the strength of lightning increased, that would also be measured and known. However there is data of lightning in some area's increasing, others less so and does seem to balance out, but not clear cut data set to know for sure upon that one.

bdamm 6y ago

Increased thunderstorms is a fairly straight forward consequence of more heat in the atmosphere. Thunderstorm formation is basically enormous thermals/dust devils that keep growing. More heat == more vigorous thermals == more thunderstorms if the atmosphere is primed to create thunderstorms. Yes there is more to it, cumulus clouds form, convection sets up, etc, but the basic mechanism of a heat source triggering a convective storm is pretty well developed. Obviously there are a lot of variables at play so it wouldn't surprise me if there are not well conducted studies at this point.

kaybe 6y ago
There are many modelling studies I can find at first glance, eg this one (including references to older studies): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0072-6 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0072-6 > 'Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. [...] In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario.' or eg this one using data: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682618306229?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S13646... > 'Many published analyses show that lightning activity is responsive to temperature on time scales ranging from the diurnal to the decadal. The hiatus in global warming is manifest in several global datasets in the decadal period 2002–2013. The statistically flat behavior of the global lightning record from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor over the same period is consistent with this hiatus in global warming.'