5 ms·

That is what its proponents would want you to believe, except that it's not borne out by evidence. There were similar drops in other cities that didn't violate

That is what its proponents would want you to believe, except that it's not borne out by evidence. There were similar drops in other cities that didn't violate the civil rights of the citizens. And that's putting aside the question of whether it's right to deny people their rights in order to deter crime.

eanzenberg 6y ago
It’s a challenging problem, but the way things are currently going, do you want a 70’s NYC in 2020+?
- sambull 6y ago
  We only use lead in aviation fuels now.. so probably not.
  - kortilla 6y ago
    In case anyone misses this reference, there is a claim that the cause of all of the violence was exposure to lead on a society wide scale. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
flyinglizard 6y ago
Which other cities are you referring to in particular?
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. This tends to undermine arguments that broken windows or stop-and-frisk are effective policies. https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/ https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/
  - erichocean 6y ago
    > Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. I've never heard of anyone arguing that policing did not increase nationwide in the 90s. All of the data we have suggests otherwise, and pushing back on that is basically the entire point of the recent BLM protests. One simple way we know crime was more aggressively enforced in EVERY city beginning in the early 90s is because so many more people were locked up during that time period (just review the incarceration rates).
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      I'm not sure that your conclusion of universality can be supported by the evidence. For example Middlesex County, Massachusetts has had roughly flat incarceration rate for decades. https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends
      - erichocean 6y ago
        The median household income in Middlesex is over $100K (that's where Harvard is located, right next to MIT). Incarcerations were also flat in Martha's Vineyard, but so what? My priors say Middlesex wouldn't show increased rates of incarceration regardless of the amount of policing, the passage of three-strikes laws, the passage of the Clinton crime bill, etc. due to the demographics of the area. What do your prior's say? Universality (to me) means "more criminals were incarcerated everywhere we expected them to be (based on demographics) and regardless of changes in local policies or funding, because there was a nationwide push to increase incarceration rates in the 90s." Do you mean something else by "universality"? Maybe we just disagree over definitions or something.
        jeffbee 6y ago
        And yet, the crime rate in that county (and in Cambridge and Lowell) reflects the same plunging nature as the rest of the state and nation, since 1990 peak. Take the big CSV from the github I posted, combine it with the FBI UCR data, and try to find a correlation between incarceration rate and crime rate.
throwaway894345 6y ago
I'm of the impression that NYC experienced steeper decreases than other cities? I'll have to look into this more. Do you have any resources to recommend? (thank you for distinguishing between "did it work" and "was it ethical"--it's so tedious when these are conflated).

eanzenberg 6y ago

It’s a challenging problem, but the way things are currently going, do you want a 70’s NYC in 2020+?

sambull 6y ago
We only use lead in aviation fuels now.. so probably not.
- kortilla 6y ago
  In case anyone misses this reference, there is a claim that the cause of all of the violence was exposure to lead on a society wide scale. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...

flyinglizard 6y ago

Which other cities are you referring to in particular?

jeffbee 6y ago
Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. This tends to undermine arguments that broken windows or stop-and-frisk are effective policies. https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/ https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/
- erichocean 6y ago
  > Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. I've never heard of anyone arguing that policing did not increase nationwide in the 90s. All of the data we have suggests otherwise, and pushing back on that is basically the entire point of the recent BLM protests. One simple way we know crime was more aggressively enforced in EVERY city beginning in the early 90s is because so many more people were locked up during that time period (just review the incarceration rates).
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    I'm not sure that your conclusion of universality can be supported by the evidence. For example Middlesex County, Massachusetts has had roughly flat incarceration rate for decades. https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends
    - erichocean 6y ago
      The median household income in Middlesex is over $100K (that's where Harvard is located, right next to MIT). Incarcerations were also flat in Martha's Vineyard, but so what? My priors say Middlesex wouldn't show increased rates of incarceration regardless of the amount of policing, the passage of three-strikes laws, the passage of the Clinton crime bill, etc. due to the demographics of the area. What do your prior's say? Universality (to me) means "more criminals were incarcerated everywhere we expected them to be (based on demographics) and regardless of changes in local policies or funding, because there was a nationwide push to increase incarceration rates in the 90s." Do you mean something else by "universality"? Maybe we just disagree over definitions or something.
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        And yet, the crime rate in that county (and in Cambridge and Lowell) reflects the same plunging nature as the rest of the state and nation, since 1990 peak. Take the big CSV from the github I posted, combine it with the FBI UCR data, and try to find a correlation between incarceration rate and crime rate.

throwaway894345 6y ago

I'm of the impression that NYC experienced steeper decreases than other cities? I'll have to look into this more. Do you have any resources to recommend? (thank you for distinguishing between "did it work" and "was it ethical"--it's so tedious when these are conflated).