8 ms·

Is there evidence for this though? The great crime decline in cities like NYC were due to increased policing and the “broken window” policy, along with stop & f

Is there evidence for this though? The great crime decline in cities like NYC were due to increased policing and the “broken window” policy, along with stop & frisk.

thenewwazoo 6y ago
That is what its proponents would want you to believe, except that it's not borne out by evidence. There were similar drops in other cities that didn't violate the civil rights of the citizens. And that's putting aside the question of whether it's right to deny people their rights in order to deter crime.
- eanzenberg 6y ago
  It’s a challenging problem, but the way things are currently going, do you want a 70’s NYC in 2020+?
  - sambull 6y ago
    We only use lead in aviation fuels now.. so probably not.
    - kortilla 6y ago
      In case anyone misses this reference, there is a claim that the cause of all of the violence was exposure to lead on a society wide scale. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
- flyinglizard 6y ago
  Which other cities are you referring to in particular?
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. This tends to undermine arguments that broken windows or stop-and-frisk are effective policies. https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/ https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/
    - erichocean 6y ago
      > Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. I've never heard of anyone arguing that policing did not increase nationwide in the 90s. All of the data we have suggests otherwise, and pushing back on that is basically the entire point of the recent BLM protests. One simple way we know crime was more aggressively enforced in EVERY city beginning in the early 90s is because so many more people were locked up during that time period (just review the incarceration rates).
      - jeffbee 6y ago
        I'm not sure that your conclusion of universality can be supported by the evidence. For example Middlesex County, Massachusetts has had roughly flat incarceration rate for decades. https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends
        erichocean 6y ago
        The median household income in Middlesex is over $100K (that's where Harvard is located, right next to MIT). Incarcerations were also flat in Martha's Vineyard, but so what? My priors say Middlesex wouldn't show increased rates of incarceration regardless of the amount of policing, the passage of three-strikes laws, the passage of the Clinton crime bill, etc. due to the demographics of the area. What do your prior's say? Universality (to me) means "more criminals were incarcerated everywhere we expected them to be (based on demographics) and regardless of changes in local policies or funding, because there was a nationwide push to increase incarceration rates in the 90s." Do you mean something else by "universality"? Maybe we just disagree over definitions or something.
- throwaway894345 6y ago
  I'm of the impression that NYC experienced steeper decreases than other cities? I'll have to look into this more. Do you have any resources to recommend? (thank you for distinguishing between "did it work" and "was it ethical"--it's so tedious when these are conflated).
cosmodisk 6y ago
To some degree. Compare London and Paris: both large, multicultural cities.In Paris, the separation between rich and poor is very clear when it comes to housing location.In London, social housing is often buit even in very expensive areas. London doesn't have no go zones, however, large,purpose built social housing estates sometimes become 'city within the city' and the bigger the estate,the bigger the problems.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
rgoddard 6y ago
The drop in crime happened nationwide during this same time in places which did not include NYC. [1] The timing of this seemed to have been more coincidental with the drop in crime. [1] https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/500104506/broken-windows-policing-and-the-origins-of-stop-and-frisk-and-how-it-went-wrong https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/500104506/broken-windows-poli...
clawedjird 6y ago
Is there evidence for your claim? My impression was that the impact of those approaches/policies was found to be non-existent to relatively small (in terms of reducing crime, that is - they probably had a significant negative impact on the quality of life of the groups most affected by them).
wanderr 6y ago
I was under the impression that this is more likely related to the reduction in lead in the air. At first glance that seems plausible. See murders by year[1] and the presence of lead[2], the timelines seem to match. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_New_York_City#Murders_by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_New_York_City#Murders... [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/01/03/how-lead-caused-americas-violent-crime-epidemic/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/01/03/how-lead-c...
david422 6y ago
I believe Freakonomics ascribed this to abortion- an unwanted generation of people that never were, and subsequently a drop in crime.
basch 6y ago
Minneapolis. Seoul. “In the 1970s and early ’80s, we built 70 percent of our subsidized units in the wealthiest white districts,” Myron Orfield said. “The metro’s affordable-housing plan was one of the best in the country.” "Only three large metros where at least half the homes are within reach for young middle-class families also finish in the top 10 in the Harvard-Berkeley mobility study: Salt Lake City, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis–St. Paul. The last is particularly remarkable. The Minneapolis–St. Paul metro area is richer by median household income than Pittsburgh or Salt Lake City (or New York, or Chicago, or Los Angeles). Among residents under 35, the Twin Cities place in the top 10 for highest college-graduation rate, highest median earnings, and lowest poverty rate, according to the most recent census figures. And yet, according to the Center for Housing Policy, low-income families can rent a home and commute to work more affordably in Minneapolis–St. Paul than in all but one other major metro area (Washington, D.C.). Perhaps most impressive, the Twin Cities have the highest employment rate for 18-to-34-year-olds in the country." "In 2008, Seoul imported a version of Minneapolis’s tax-sharing scheme. Since then, the gap in funding for social services among the city’s districts has narrowed. According to a 2012 analysis by Sun Ki Kwon, then a graduate student at the University of Kentucky, this has helped Seoul’s poorest communities grow their tax bases while only minimally affecting the city’s richest districts." https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/the-miracle-of-minneapolis/384975/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/the-mir...
- erichocean 6y ago
  Are you suggesting Minneapolis is a…success story? I honestly can't tell, but if so, BLM would like a word…
  - basch 6y ago
    Did you read the article. Minneapolis, for close to 50 years, has been an example of how to do low income housing better than everyone else. Policy within the last decade has eroded this gain. It has gotten worse since these policies have rolled back. Is it perfect? No. Does low income housing alone prevent police from fracturing families and communities by enforcing drug law? No.

Is there evidence for this though? The great crime decline in cities like NYC were due to increased policing and the “broken window” policy, along with stop & frisk.

thenewwazoo 6y ago

That is what its proponents would want you to believe, except that it's not borne out by evidence. There were similar drops in other cities that didn't violate the civil rights of the citizens. And that's putting aside the question of whether it's right to deny people their rights in order to deter crime.

eanzenberg 6y ago
It’s a challenging problem, but the way things are currently going, do you want a 70’s NYC in 2020+?
- sambull 6y ago
  We only use lead in aviation fuels now.. so probably not.
  - kortilla 6y ago
    In case anyone misses this reference, there is a claim that the cause of all of the violence was exposure to lead on a society wide scale. https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposure-gasoline-crime-increase-children-health/ https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/02/lead-exposur...
flyinglizard 6y ago
Which other cities are you referring to in particular?
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. This tends to undermine arguments that broken windows or stop-and-frisk are effective policies. https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/ https://crime-data-explorer.fr.cloud.gov/
  - erichocean 6y ago
    > Literally every city in America, regardless of their approach to policing, has experienced a massive drop in crime rates from 1990 forward. I've never heard of anyone arguing that policing did not increase nationwide in the 90s. All of the data we have suggests otherwise, and pushing back on that is basically the entire point of the recent BLM protests. One simple way we know crime was more aggressively enforced in EVERY city beginning in the early 90s is because so many more people were locked up during that time period (just review the incarceration rates).
    - jeffbee 6y ago
      I'm not sure that your conclusion of universality can be supported by the evidence. For example Middlesex County, Massachusetts has had roughly flat incarceration rate for decades. https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends https://github.com/vera-institute/incarceration_trends
      - erichocean 6y ago
        The median household income in Middlesex is over $100K (that's where Harvard is located, right next to MIT). Incarcerations were also flat in Martha's Vineyard, but so what? My priors say Middlesex wouldn't show increased rates of incarceration regardless of the amount of policing, the passage of three-strikes laws, the passage of the Clinton crime bill, etc. due to the demographics of the area. What do your prior's say? Universality (to me) means "more criminals were incarcerated everywhere we expected them to be (based on demographics) and regardless of changes in local policies or funding, because there was a nationwide push to increase incarceration rates in the 90s." Do you mean something else by "universality"? Maybe we just disagree over definitions or something.
throwaway894345 6y ago
I'm of the impression that NYC experienced steeper decreases than other cities? I'll have to look into this more. Do you have any resources to recommend? (thank you for distinguishing between "did it work" and "was it ethical"--it's so tedious when these are conflated).

cosmodisk 6y ago

To some degree. Compare London and Paris: both large, multicultural cities.In Paris, the separation between rich and poor is very clear when it comes to housing location.In London, social housing is often buit even in very expensive areas. London doesn't have no go zones, however, large,purpose built social housing estates sometimes become 'city within the city' and the bigger the estate,the bigger the problems.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

rgoddard 6y ago

The drop in crime happened nationwide during this same time in places which did not include NYC. [1] The timing of this seemed to have been more coincidental with the drop in crime. [1] https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/500104506/broken-windows-policing-and-the-origins-of-stop-and-frisk-and-how-it-went-wrong https://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/500104506/broken-windows-poli...

clawedjird 6y ago

Is there evidence for your claim? My impression was that the impact of those approaches/policies was found to be non-existent to relatively small (in terms of reducing crime, that is - they probably had a significant negative impact on the quality of life of the groups most affected by them).

wanderr 6y ago

I was under the impression that this is more likely related to the reduction in lead in the air. At first glance that seems plausible. See murders by year[1] and the presence of lead[2], the timelines seem to match. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_New_York_City#Murders_by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_New_York_City#Murders... [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/01/03/how-lead-caused-americas-violent-crime-epidemic/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2013/01/03/how-lead-c...

david422 6y ago

I believe Freakonomics ascribed this to abortion- an unwanted generation of people that never were, and subsequently a drop in crime.

basch 6y ago

Minneapolis. Seoul. “In the 1970s and early ’80s, we built 70 percent of our subsidized units in the wealthiest white districts,” Myron Orfield said. “The metro’s affordable-housing plan was one of the best in the country.” "Only three large metros where at least half the homes are within reach for young middle-class families also finish in the top 10 in the Harvard-Berkeley mobility study: Salt Lake City, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis–St. Paul. The last is particularly remarkable. The Minneapolis–St. Paul metro area is richer by median household income than Pittsburgh or Salt Lake City (or New York, or Chicago, or Los Angeles). Among residents under 35, the Twin Cities place in the top 10 for highest college-graduation rate, highest median earnings, and lowest poverty rate, according to the most recent census figures. And yet, according to the Center for Housing Policy, low-income families can rent a home and commute to work more affordably in Minneapolis–St. Paul than in all but one other major metro area (Washington, D.C.). Perhaps most impressive, the Twin Cities have the highest employment rate for 18-to-34-year-olds in the country." "In 2008, Seoul imported a version of Minneapolis’s tax-sharing scheme. Since then, the gap in funding for social services among the city’s districts has narrowed. According to a 2012 analysis by Sun Ki Kwon, then a graduate student at the University of Kentucky, this has helped Seoul’s poorest communities grow their tax bases while only minimally affecting the city’s richest districts." https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/the-miracle-of-minneapolis/384975/ https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/the-mir...

erichocean 6y ago
Are you suggesting Minneapolis is a…success story? I honestly can't tell, but if so, BLM would like a word…
- basch 6y ago
  Did you read the article. Minneapolis, for close to 50 years, has been an example of how to do low income housing better than everyone else. Policy within the last decade has eroded this gain. It has gotten worse since these policies have rolled back. Is it perfect? No. Does low income housing alone prevent police from fracturing families and communities by enforcing drug law? No.