6 ms·

That wouldn't explain the flat rates in NYC [0] or Minneapolis and St. Paul (Hennepin/Ramsey County) [1] [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-yo

by danso 6y ago

That wouldn't explain the flat rates in NYC [0] or Minneapolis and St. Paul (Hennepin/Ramsey County) [1] [0] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronav... [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-coronavirus-cases.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/minnesota-corona... edit: Also, Texas had a Phase 3 reopening on June 3, which is around the time of peak protest: https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-phase-iii-to-open-texas https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-ph...

dehrmann 6y ago
A few weeks ago, I remember Cuomo patting himself and New Yorkers on the back for continuing to see a decline in cases. It's a lot easier to do that when 20% of NYC residents have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and that was in May. I'm sure this limited spread during protests somewhat in NYC. That said, social distancing during protests, being outdoors, how many people had active infections (this varies wildly across the US), mask use, actions (positive and negative) by the police, and living situations of the protesters (alone in an apartment or four roommates) all have an effect.
- nostrademons 6y ago
  Only in the presence of social distancing or other countermeasures. 20% antibodies means that you could have an R = 1.25 and still get an effective R < 1.0, preventing further onwards transmission. R0 estimates for COVID-19 ranged from 2.5-6, so by itself 20% of the population with antibodies wouldn't do anything (it'd reduce R to 2-4.8, which is still pretty quick exponential spread, faster than the flu). However, R in the U.S. around the time of the protests was measured at about 1.07, because it wasn't fully opened up yet and many people are staying home out of fear. Under those conditions NYC gets an effective R = 0.85 (epidemic dies out), while a state with 2% antibodies has an effective R = 1.05, which is still positive (albeit slow) exponential spread. I suspect it's a combination of the lax social distancing requirements + lack of immunity. NYC would still be experiencing exponential spread without existing immunity, but it's only because they're still locked down that the level of immunity they have can prevent an epidemic.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

by danso 6y ago

dehrmann 6y ago

A few weeks ago, I remember Cuomo patting himself and New Yorkers on the back for continuing to see a decline in cases. It's a lot easier to do that when 20% of NYC residents have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and that was in May. I'm sure this limited spread during protests somewhat in NYC. That said, social distancing during protests, being outdoors, how many people had active infections (this varies wildly across the US), mask use, actions (positive and negative) by the police, and living situations of the protesters (alone in an apartment or four roommates) all have an effect.

nostrademons 6y ago
Only in the presence of social distancing or other countermeasures. 20% antibodies means that you could have an R = 1.25 and still get an effective R < 1.0, preventing further onwards transmission. R0 estimates for COVID-19 ranged from 2.5-6, so by itself 20% of the population with antibodies wouldn't do anything (it'd reduce R to 2-4.8, which is still pretty quick exponential spread, faster than the flu). However, R in the U.S. around the time of the protests was measured at about 1.07, because it wasn't fully opened up yet and many people are staying home out of fear. Under those conditions NYC gets an effective R = 0.85 (epidemic dies out), while a state with 2% antibodies has an effective R = 1.05, which is still positive (albeit slow) exponential spread. I suspect it's a combination of the lax social distancing requirements + lack of immunity. NYC would still be experiencing exponential spread without existing immunity, but it's only because they're still locked down that the level of immunity they have can prevent an epidemic.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]