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>Self-driving tech may be close to cruise control 2.0 - that is highway exit to highway exit navigation This is why the main first application of autonomous dr

>Self-driving tech may be close to cruise control 2.0 - that is highway exit to highway exit navigation This is why the main first application of autonomous driving is going to be long haul trucking. The current regulations about duty time for humans in long haul trucking create inefficiencies. Now imagine that there are facilities just off of highway on- and off-ramps where truck drivers hang out. The autonomous vehicle pulls off the highway into a lot. A human then gets in and guides the truck to it's final destination. Truck drivers get an immediate lifestyle increase (no more multiple days on the road, having to sleep in the truck, etc), labor costs drop dramatically, and travel times for cross country trips also drop dramatically. The driver market for CDL truck drivers will turn into the "harbor pilot" model they have for large ships.

sailfast 6y ago
SOME truck drivers (the ones that keep their jobs) will get a lifestyle "increase" because it will be local, but demand will drop substantially. Even so, these "lifestyle increase" jobs would only exist until autonomous driving gets better. Even if that's two decades it's not something you'd want to rely on as an occupation. Not saying it's the wrong way to go - it absolutely is the right way to move logistics forward - but there will be significant impacts in a country where "Truck driver" is one of the top jobs in just about every state that can't be explained away with "lifestyle improvement"
- smilekzs 6y ago
  A truck driver's job is more than, uh, driving the truck. Inspection of the cargo and the conditions of the truck are things unlikely to be automated any time soon even if feasible (there will be regulation resistance at the very least). Yard maneuvers too, or you would have seen fully automated airport ground traffic management by now. The job would pay less, not sure by how much, but my take is that the job will not go away entirely. In fact there might be more drivers hired with each driver serving fewer hours per week. Disclaimer: I am waiting for my CDL Class-A test ;)
  - xxpor 6y ago
    I think that's what OP was basically saying though. All of the 'local' jobs (driving in a yard, dropping off trailers at customer warehouses, inspecting cargo, etc) will stick around. The bulk 'driving across the country' jobs might start to go away. So I'm imagining a truck driver, who lives in NJ, will still pick up a container at the Port of Elizabeth, do their inspection, load the container on the truck, and drive it out of the port. They'll get as far as the entrance to the NJ Turnpike, and then set the truck up for autonomous driving all the way to Nebraska on I-80. The truck drives to Nebraska, where it's headed to a warehouse. At the exit from the highway, a new driver will be waiting to hop in. He'll then drive it the rest of the way. In between, gas stations will have full service again for diesel. There will be some way to automatically charge the truck for fuel.
  - sailfast 6y ago
    Right. There will be fewer jobs that will be more commoditized, therefore driving down wages and reducing hours so the outcome of that CDL may not pay as much as it otherwise would with human drivers. Companies aren’t just going autonomous for safety benefits - they want labor gone, which is where the real costs are these days.
gregmac 6y ago
I was watching an interesting video about this the other day [1] which suggested that one approach might also be a convoy of trucks, where the first one has a driver (even though it may be driving autonomously on the highway) followed by several autonomous trucks. The human driver can handle bad road conditions, mechanical problems, etc. It seems like a logical step on the way to fully autonomous, and significantly increases the capacity of freight per driver. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlPrAKtegFQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlPrAKtegFQ

sailfast 6y ago

SOME truck drivers (the ones that keep their jobs) will get a lifestyle "increase" because it will be local, but demand will drop substantially. Even so, these "lifestyle increase" jobs would only exist until autonomous driving gets better. Even if that's two decades it's not something you'd want to rely on as an occupation. Not saying it's the wrong way to go - it absolutely is the right way to move logistics forward - but there will be significant impacts in a country where "Truck driver" is one of the top jobs in just about every state that can't be explained away with "lifestyle improvement"

smilekzs 6y ago
A truck driver's job is more than, uh, driving the truck. Inspection of the cargo and the conditions of the truck are things unlikely to be automated any time soon even if feasible (there will be regulation resistance at the very least). Yard maneuvers too, or you would have seen fully automated airport ground traffic management by now. The job would pay less, not sure by how much, but my take is that the job will not go away entirely. In fact there might be more drivers hired with each driver serving fewer hours per week. Disclaimer: I am waiting for my CDL Class-A test ;)
- xxpor 6y ago
  I think that's what OP was basically saying though. All of the 'local' jobs (driving in a yard, dropping off trailers at customer warehouses, inspecting cargo, etc) will stick around. The bulk 'driving across the country' jobs might start to go away. So I'm imagining a truck driver, who lives in NJ, will still pick up a container at the Port of Elizabeth, do their inspection, load the container on the truck, and drive it out of the port. They'll get as far as the entrance to the NJ Turnpike, and then set the truck up for autonomous driving all the way to Nebraska on I-80. The truck drives to Nebraska, where it's headed to a warehouse. At the exit from the highway, a new driver will be waiting to hop in. He'll then drive it the rest of the way. In between, gas stations will have full service again for diesel. There will be some way to automatically charge the truck for fuel.
- sailfast 6y ago
  Right. There will be fewer jobs that will be more commoditized, therefore driving down wages and reducing hours so the outcome of that CDL may not pay as much as it otherwise would with human drivers. Companies aren’t just going autonomous for safety benefits - they want labor gone, which is where the real costs are these days.

gregmac 6y ago

I was watching an interesting video about this the other day [1] which suggested that one approach might also be a convoy of trucks, where the first one has a driver (even though it may be driving autonomously on the highway) followed by several autonomous trucks. The human driver can handle bad road conditions, mechanical problems, etc. It seems like a logical step on the way to fully autonomous, and significantly increases the capacity of freight per driver. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlPrAKtegFQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlPrAKtegFQ