5 ms·

When Covid-19 deaths are analysed by age, America is an outlier

25 points by mnm1 6y ago

didibus 6y ago
Is this article like under 100 words? Or is the rest paywalled and why I only see the first two paragraphs?
- jml7c5 6y ago
  Perhaps an ad-blocker is hiding the "you've hit a paywall" message? The article should be 386 words over four paragraphs.
- nkurz 6y ago
  It's short, but not that short. Pasted: IT IS NOW well-known that, although covid-19 can strike even the very young, older folk face the greatest risk. In hard-hit rich countries, about 60% of all deaths from the disease are among people aged 80 and over. America, however, is an exception. Data released on June 16th by the Centres for Disease Control (CDC) show that the country’s death toll skews significantly younger. There, people in their 80s account for less than half of all covid-19 deaths; people in their 40s, 50s and 60s, meanwhile, account for a significantly larger share of those who die. The median covid-19 sufferer in America is a 48-year-old; in Italy it is a 63-year-old. Why is America such an outlier? Part of the explanation surely lies in the fact that America has a younger population than Europe does. America’s median age is just 38; Italy’s is 45. Another reason, perhaps, is that middle-aged Americans may be less healthy than their European peers, eg, because they tend to be more obese. Whatever the cause, the relative youthfulness of America’s covid-19 victims means that the coronavirus is robbing Americans of more years of precious life. A recent study by a group of Scottish researchers estimated the number of years of life lost to covid-19 by age, taking account of the victims’ underlying health conditions. It found that in Italy, people who died in their 50s, 60s, and 70s typically lost 30, 21, and 12 years, respectively. Those in their 80s lost five years, on average. Applying these estimates to the victims of America’s outbreak, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that covid-19 has so far shortened the lives of its American victims by 11 years, on average, compared with about nine years in the hardest-hit European countries. America may not yet have reached the same rate of covid-19 deaths as the likes of Britain, Spain and Italy. But the contagion in America is far from contained. Anthony Fauci, one of the experts in charge of America’s response, has warned of a “disturbing surge” in new infections in parts of the country. And when the age profile is factored in, there is even more reason for Americans to be disturbed.
redis_mlc 6y ago
This video from UCSF explains the correlation of corn syrup, obesity and diabetes, which also explains the corona mortality age distribution in the US: Sugar: The Bitter Truth (2009) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM It's a 90 minute video, so to summarize: - US decreased fat in processed food, but compensated with HFCS (corn syrup) - HFCS contains fructose, which is poisonous in large quantities, which we are now eating (almost half a pound per day per person) - the additional calories in processed food caused Americans to gain 25 pounds in 20 years If you drink regular soda with HFCS, then you should switch to one can of cane sugar soda (from Mexico), or one diet can per day. Look at labels and avoid HFCS whenever possible. You can do a quick reality check on the above by comparing group photos from the 1960s and today - nobody was fat back then, except for Mama Cass.
- lookdangerous 6y ago
  Is corn syrup (instead of HF corn syrup) ok to consume, or is it too pretty darn bad fer ya?
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    The reporting says it's the fructose amount that's highest in importance, since the liver warehouses it, and that seems to cause metabolic diseases, followed lower in priority with large sucrose/glucose amounts. So fructose in a single fruit with natural fibers is ok, but half a kilo per week or more of raw fructose is toxic. This is a more watchable video with industry slides admitting there's a problem (similar to cigarette industry): The Secrets of Sugar - the fifth estate (2014) (42 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3ksKkCOgTw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3ksKkCOgTw I really encourage people to learn about this topic since it directly affects quality of life. If you get free soda at work, skip the HFCS containers.
jml7c5 6y ago
Be careful reading this graph. The x-axis is "share of total deaths, %", but these are relative measures, not absolute ones. One way for the US to match the other countries would be to intentionally kill a bunch of old people. A better graph would be "infection fatality rate, %", grouped by age, and compared across countries.
fallingfrog 6y ago
Many young people in America have no health care, and delay going to the doctor until they are on death’s doorstep. That might be part of it. Before I got my first desk job at the age of 32, my reality was that going to a doctor or dentist was as distant an idea as being an astronaut. I had never been, and had no idea how one would even go about trying, and had no money to pay for those kinds of services anyway. I’m sure that many people are stuck in that position for far longer (or indefinitely). After I got that first job the first thing I did was have 7 fillings and 2 root canals, saving several of my teeth.
glofish 6y ago
The graph on the left shows that America is doing much better than Europe as far as case fatality rate goes, about half that of Britain/Spain or Italy. Yet somehow that positive information is turned into a negative sentiment of look how much worse the situation is, our people are younger. Perhaps the explanation is that the two measures are fully correlated: Patients in the US are younger, hence die less often.
- Recurecur 6y ago
  The obvious interpretation of this is that in some places like Italy, the older population received much more exposure than it did in the US. In Italy, this was due to so many extended families living in the same home. In fact, things would have skewed even younger in the US except for the nursing home debacle in NY and NJ. It's worth pointing out that there's quite a disconnect between the US media coverage of the mortality rate here, versus the higher mortality rate in Britain, France, and other EU countries. There is also a good chance that COVID mortality in the US is being significantly overcounted. Regardless, there's little choice at this point - we need to keep the economy open as we wrestle with minimizing hospital visits and fatalities. Let's hope improved treatments are developed at a high rate!
  - ChrisLomont 6y ago
    >There is also a good chance that COVID mortality in the US is being significantly overcounted. It seems experts (CDC among other) suggest the mortality is quite a bit undercounted, since there are many deaths for which the person is not tested, since we lacked the testing capabilities. One interesting place to see it is expected death rates versus actual death rates while COVID is here, and note there is no other known thing that spiked at the same time to account for the excess deaths. What science groups or medical groups are claiming it's overcounted? For example, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deat... https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/13/854873605/fauci-says-u-s-death-toll-is-likely-higher-other-covid-stats-need-adjusting-too https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/13/8548736...

25 points by mnm1 6y ago

didibus 6y ago

Is this article like under 100 words? Or is the rest paywalled and why I only see the first two paragraphs?

jml7c5 6y ago
Perhaps an ad-blocker is hiding the "you've hit a paywall" message? The article should be 386 words over four paragraphs.
nkurz 6y ago
It's short, but not that short. Pasted: IT IS NOW well-known that, although covid-19 can strike even the very young, older folk face the greatest risk. In hard-hit rich countries, about 60% of all deaths from the disease are among people aged 80 and over. America, however, is an exception. Data released on June 16th by the Centres for Disease Control (CDC) show that the country’s death toll skews significantly younger. There, people in their 80s account for less than half of all covid-19 deaths; people in their 40s, 50s and 60s, meanwhile, account for a significantly larger share of those who die. The median covid-19 sufferer in America is a 48-year-old; in Italy it is a 63-year-old. Why is America such an outlier? Part of the explanation surely lies in the fact that America has a younger population than Europe does. America’s median age is just 38; Italy’s is 45. Another reason, perhaps, is that middle-aged Americans may be less healthy than their European peers, eg, because they tend to be more obese. Whatever the cause, the relative youthfulness of America’s covid-19 victims means that the coronavirus is robbing Americans of more years of precious life. A recent study by a group of Scottish researchers estimated the number of years of life lost to covid-19 by age, taking account of the victims’ underlying health conditions. It found that in Italy, people who died in their 50s, 60s, and 70s typically lost 30, 21, and 12 years, respectively. Those in their 80s lost five years, on average. Applying these estimates to the victims of America’s outbreak, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that covid-19 has so far shortened the lives of its American victims by 11 years, on average, compared with about nine years in the hardest-hit European countries. America may not yet have reached the same rate of covid-19 deaths as the likes of Britain, Spain and Italy. But the contagion in America is far from contained. Anthony Fauci, one of the experts in charge of America’s response, has warned of a “disturbing surge” in new infections in parts of the country. And when the age profile is factored in, there is even more reason for Americans to be disturbed.

redis_mlc 6y ago

This video from UCSF explains the correlation of corn syrup, obesity and diabetes, which also explains the corona mortality age distribution in the US: Sugar: The Bitter Truth (2009) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM It's a 90 minute video, so to summarize: - US decreased fat in processed food, but compensated with HFCS (corn syrup) - HFCS contains fructose, which is poisonous in large quantities, which we are now eating (almost half a pound per day per person) - the additional calories in processed food caused Americans to gain 25 pounds in 20 years If you drink regular soda with HFCS, then you should switch to one can of cane sugar soda (from Mexico), or one diet can per day. Look at labels and avoid HFCS whenever possible. You can do a quick reality check on the above by comparing group photos from the 1960s and today - nobody was fat back then, except for Mama Cass.

lookdangerous 6y ago
Is corn syrup (instead of HF corn syrup) ok to consume, or is it too pretty darn bad fer ya?
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  The reporting says it's the fructose amount that's highest in importance, since the liver warehouses it, and that seems to cause metabolic diseases, followed lower in priority with large sucrose/glucose amounts. So fructose in a single fruit with natural fibers is ok, but half a kilo per week or more of raw fructose is toxic. This is a more watchable video with industry slides admitting there's a problem (similar to cigarette industry): The Secrets of Sugar - the fifth estate (2014) (42 minutes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3ksKkCOgTw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3ksKkCOgTw I really encourage people to learn about this topic since it directly affects quality of life. If you get free soda at work, skip the HFCS containers.

jml7c5 6y ago

Be careful reading this graph. The x-axis is "share of total deaths, %", but these are relative measures, not absolute ones. One way for the US to match the other countries would be to intentionally kill a bunch of old people. A better graph would be "infection fatality rate, %", grouped by age, and compared across countries.

fallingfrog 6y ago

Many young people in America have no health care, and delay going to the doctor until they are on death’s doorstep. That might be part of it. Before I got my first desk job at the age of 32, my reality was that going to a doctor or dentist was as distant an idea as being an astronaut. I had never been, and had no idea how one would even go about trying, and had no money to pay for those kinds of services anyway. I’m sure that many people are stuck in that position for far longer (or indefinitely). After I got that first job the first thing I did was have 7 fillings and 2 root canals, saving several of my teeth.

glofish 6y ago

The graph on the left shows that America is doing much better than Europe as far as case fatality rate goes, about half that of Britain/Spain or Italy. Yet somehow that positive information is turned into a negative sentiment of look how much worse the situation is, our people are younger. Perhaps the explanation is that the two measures are fully correlated: Patients in the US are younger, hence die less often.

Recurecur 6y ago
The obvious interpretation of this is that in some places like Italy, the older population received much more exposure than it did in the US. In Italy, this was due to so many extended families living in the same home. In fact, things would have skewed even younger in the US except for the nursing home debacle in NY and NJ. It's worth pointing out that there's quite a disconnect between the US media coverage of the mortality rate here, versus the higher mortality rate in Britain, France, and other EU countries. There is also a good chance that COVID mortality in the US is being significantly overcounted. Regardless, there's little choice at this point - we need to keep the economy open as we wrestle with minimizing hospital visits and fatalities. Let's hope improved treatments are developed at a high rate!
- ChrisLomont 6y ago
  >There is also a good chance that COVID mortality in the US is being significantly overcounted. It seems experts (CDC among other) suggest the mortality is quite a bit undercounted, since there are many deaths for which the person is not tested, since we lacked the testing capabilities. One interesting place to see it is expected death rates versus actual death rates while COVID is here, and note there is no other known thing that spiked at the same time to account for the excess deaths. What science groups or medical groups are claiming it's overcounted? For example, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deat... https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/13/854873605/fauci-says-u-s-death-toll-is-likely-higher-other-covid-stats-need-adjusting-too https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/13/8548736...