That your analogy doesn't hold. We do know that infectious diseases with a median R0 of 5.7 will spread exponentially, as was the case with covid-19 in the Janu

That your analogy doesn't hold. We do know that infectious diseases with a median R0 of 5.7 will spread exponentially, as was the case with covid-19 in the January-March timeframe. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article