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There's a good book called "The Drunkards Walk", that describes a woman who was jailed after having 2 children die from SIDS. They argued that the odds of this
by Buttons840 6y ago
There's a good book called "The Drunkards Walk", that describes a woman who was jailed after having 2 children die from SIDS. They argued that the odds of this happening is 1 in a million (or something like that), so probably the woman is a baby killer. The prosecution had statisticians argue this. The woman was found guilty.
She later won on appeal in part because the defense showed that the testimony and argument of the original statisticians were wrong.
This stuff is so easy to get wrong. A little knowledge of statistics can be dangerous.
- Polylactic_acid 6y agoAnd even if the original stats were right. A 1 in a million event happens to about 100 people per day in the US.
- microcolonel 6y ago> A 1 in a million event happens to about 100 people per day in the US. This is a meaningless statement, you could choose literally any number for this statement, because you are missing the denominator.
- PudgePacket 6y agoSure.. But the case being discussed has a maximum frequency of 1 in a million every 18 (2 terms of childbirth) months, further reduced by needing to be a woman of reproductive age, fertile, etc etc. This case of "one in a million" does not happen frequently.