I don't buy the "we have GPT-3, therefore we may soon have artificial general intelligence" (AGI) notion. AGI might happen tomorrow; it might happen in decades

I don't buy the "we have GPT-3, therefore we may soon have artificial general intelligence" (AGI) notion. AGI might happen tomorrow; it might happen in decades, in centuries, or never. GPT-3 is basically a straightforward scaling of GPT-2, but I see no evidence that simply scaling GPT-2 or GPT-3 will lead to AGI. The problem is we don't know what else is needed.