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I'm all for discussing how to best deal with the virus and which measures best contain the spread. Sweden is an interesting experiment. But your sources are lo-

by lolc 6y ago

I'm all for discussing how to best deal with the virus and which measures best contain the spread. Sweden is an interesting experiment. But your sources are lo-fi. I was unable to read the second picture. Check out https://euromomo.eu https://euromomo.eu for a good source. > For instance we see that Sweden that didn't lock down has practically indistinguishable All Cause Deaths outcomes as the neighboring Nordics[1]. Sweden had very high excess mortality compared to its neighbors and is still showing abnormally high. For Norway and Finland the numbers remained flat. Your plot sums up the entire winter and stops at week 18! It's decidedly not fine-grained enough to judge lock-down effects. > New coronavirus just like other known coronaviruses. Even for younger people we haven't seen a peak in deaths like that in a while. Looking at Euromomo the age bracket 15-44 years saw a 15% increase in deaths during a whole month. An unprecedented increase in the last five years. We don't know how much worse the numbers would be without lock-down. And it's not over yet. Please don't say that the virus is "just like other coronaviruses". Most of them are benign and not even tracked that much. So we know little about them. SARS-Cov2 can well be compared to SARS-Cov which is extinct. Luckily.

gizmo 6y ago
If you're just going to ignore the charts I posted what's the point? I already provided you with a chart that shows that, in fact, Sweden does not have exceptional all cause mortality. Not compared to its neighbors and not compared to previous years in Sweden. Yes, the chart is a month old, but if nothing exceptional is going on by May and covid deaths have steadily declined since[1] there really isn't a story here. Euromomo data is preprocessed data and not suitable for analysis. Get the raw all cause mortality statistics (by age group if possible) directly from each country health agency, and use that instead. [1] https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
- lolc 6y ago
  Of course I'm ignoring your charts! After explaining that the first of your charts is too broad, and the other I can't read the labels of. I was giving you the benefit of doubt but after your answer I must presume you're picky with your sources to protect your story. I'm not aware of a flaw in the Euromomo collection. Why discount it? I think they're more competent at collecting death-tolls than I am. What would be the benefit of me collecting the numbers myself? Do you disagree with my estimate of 15% excess mortality in the 15-44 age-bracket? Or do you know of a Coronavirus epidemic in the past that had a comparable effect?

by lolc 6y ago

gizmo 6y ago

If you're just going to ignore the charts I posted what's the point? I already provided you with a chart that shows that, in fact, Sweden does not have exceptional all cause mortality. Not compared to its neighbors and not compared to previous years in Sweden. Yes, the chart is a month old, but if nothing exceptional is going on by May and covid deaths have steadily declined since[1] there really isn't a story here. Euromomo data is preprocessed data and not suitable for analysis. Get the raw all cause mortality statistics (by age group if possible) directly from each country health agency, and use that instead. [1] https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/ https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/

lolc 6y ago
Of course I'm ignoring your charts! After explaining that the first of your charts is too broad, and the other I can't read the labels of. I was giving you the benefit of doubt but after your answer I must presume you're picky with your sources to protect your story. I'm not aware of a flaw in the Euromomo collection. Why discount it? I think they're more competent at collecting death-tolls than I am. What would be the benefit of me collecting the numbers myself? Do you disagree with my estimate of 15% excess mortality in the 15-44 age-bracket? Or do you know of a Coronavirus epidemic in the past that had a comparable effect?