3 ms·

> Impossible. Covid reached Europe by December, and has spread like wildfire since. Can you source this claim?

by arrrg 6y ago

gizmo 6y ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage/italy-sewage-study-suggests-covid-19-was-there-in-december-2019-idUSKBN23Q1J9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... That's one. And CDC data shows that Covid was already widespread in October 2019: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZNQ9arUEAAS9W9?format=png&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZNQ9arUEAAS9W9?format=png&name=... With a spike in abnormal deaths 24 days later in November. For covid deaths to be clearly visible in November it must have been widespread a month before that, and starting its spread around September.
- etabetapi 6y ago
  I have no idea where you get your graphs from - the chart you want is this one: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/images/NCHS23_small.gif https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/image... (pneumonia and influenza mortality, COVID kills via penumonia and as such is in that graph), the spike at 2019-50 is the normal flu reason (you can see we were having a slightly above normal one that started to decline out), the spike at week 10 onwards is COVID-19. Likewise, looking at ILI (influenza like illnesses), you can see the normal flu season spike near week 50, a decline towards baseline, and then a rise towards week 10 https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html (ILInet line graph), followed by a decline as stay at home orders began to come into effect. COVID emphatically was not circulating in numbers in november. We would have noticed, same as the chinese did, from the massive increase in pnuemonia clusters. Genetic analysis backs this up. You don't know what you're talking about, again.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
lbeltrame 6y ago
While this paper[1] doesn't attempt to provide exact dates, the phylogenetic data suggest that there were multiple seeding "events" in each country before outbreaks were actually noticeable. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7199730/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7199730/

> Impossible. Covid reached Europe by December, and has spread like wildfire since. Can you source this claim?

by arrrg 6y ago

> Impossible. Covid reached Europe by December, and has spread like wildfire since. Can you source this claim?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-sewage/italy-sewage-study-suggests-covid-19-was-there-in-december-2019-idUSKBN23Q1J9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-... That's one. And CDC data shows that Covid was already widespread in October 2019: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZNQ9arUEAAS9W9?format=png&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZNQ9arUEAAS9W9?format=png&name=... With a spike in abnormal deaths 24 days later in November. For covid deaths to be clearly visible in November it must have been widespread a month before that, and starting its spread around September.

etabetapi 6y ago
I have no idea where you get your graphs from - the chart you want is this one: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/images/NCHS23_small.gif https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/image... (pneumonia and influenza mortality, COVID kills via penumonia and as such is in that graph), the spike at 2019-50 is the normal flu reason (you can see we were having a slightly above normal one that started to decline out), the spike at week 10 onwards is COVID-19. Likewise, looking at ILI (influenza like illnesses), you can see the normal flu season spike near week 50, a decline towards baseline, and then a rise towards week 10 https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html (ILInet line graph), followed by a decline as stay at home orders began to come into effect. COVID emphatically was not circulating in numbers in november. We would have noticed, same as the chinese did, from the massive increase in pnuemonia clusters. Genetic analysis backs this up. You don't know what you're talking about, again.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

lbeltrame 6y ago

While this paper[1] doesn't attempt to provide exact dates, the phylogenetic data suggest that there were multiple seeding "events" in each country before outbreaks were actually noticeable. [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7199730/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7199730/