2 ms·

No, because the "flatten the curve" crowd believed that the virus was in early stages; the lockdown was to prevent uncontrolled spreading. The virus looks supe

by gizmo 6y ago

No, because the "flatten the curve" crowd believed that the virus was in early stages; the lockdown was to prevent uncontrolled spreading. The virus looks super lethal when deaths are starting to pile up when only a tiny percentage of the country was believed to have been exposed. But in reality the virus had almost peaked by the time people started to panic, which made all those lockdown or flatten the curve measures pointless.

baxtr 6y ago
Got it thanks. This assumption is of course undermined by the fact that seroprevalence of antibodies is not that high even in countries like Sweden. At the same time I know a person who had minor symptoms, was then tested positive in PCR but negative in a later AB test. Combine this with studies on SARS1 and MERS where only half of all asymptomatic patients developed ABs and the assumption you presented seems suddenly quite possible. If it’s true however, the pandemic should be over in a couple of weeks?
- gizmo 6y ago
  Your immune system protects against millions of diseases, but does it continuously produce antibodies for all of them? Of course not. This means that testing positive for covid19 antibodies is strong evidence that person has been infected with covid19, but the inverse is not true. That's why we don't do antibody tests for the seasonal flu: there's just no point. Depends on what you mean by "over". Covid19 is trending down in the northern hemisphere and it will continue to trend down even after all countries stop with their ineffective lockdown measures, but the virus won't disappear completely. But life can go back to normal, except people should be a little more careful about washing their hands and not visit the elderly if they feel sick. But handwashing and consideration for the health of the vulnerable should be the default anyway, and we should do that regardless of covid.

by gizmo 6y ago

baxtr 6y ago

Got it thanks. This assumption is of course undermined by the fact that seroprevalence of antibodies is not that high even in countries like Sweden. At the same time I know a person who had minor symptoms, was then tested positive in PCR but negative in a later AB test. Combine this with studies on SARS1 and MERS where only half of all asymptomatic patients developed ABs and the assumption you presented seems suddenly quite possible. If it’s true however, the pandemic should be over in a couple of weeks?

gizmo 6y ago
Your immune system protects against millions of diseases, but does it continuously produce antibodies for all of them? Of course not. This means that testing positive for covid19 antibodies is strong evidence that person has been infected with covid19, but the inverse is not true. That's why we don't do antibody tests for the seasonal flu: there's just no point. Depends on what you mean by "over". Covid19 is trending down in the northern hemisphere and it will continue to trend down even after all countries stop with their ineffective lockdown measures, but the virus won't disappear completely. But life can go back to normal, except people should be a little more careful about washing their hands and not visit the elderly if they feel sick. But handwashing and consideration for the health of the vulnerable should be the default anyway, and we should do that regardless of covid.