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So far the best data we have shows that for people in their 60s covid-19 is killing them about ten years early. See eg this from Economist: https://www.economi

by DanBC 6y ago

So far the best data we have shows that for people in their 60s covid-19 is killing them about ten years early. See eg this from Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-mo... https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/headline_720672_en.html https://www.gla.ac.uk/news/headline_720672_en.html > “As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying chronic conditions, some have speculated that the impact of the condition may have been overstated, and that the actual number of years of life lost as a result of COVID-19 are relatively low,” said Dr McAllister. > “This new analysis found that death from COVID-19 results in over 10 years of life lost per person, even after taking account of the typical number and type of chronic conditions found in people dying of COVID-19. Among people dying of COVID-19, the number of years of life lost PER PERSON appear similar to diseases such as coronary heart disease. Information such as this is important to ensure governments and the public do not wrongly underestimate the effects of COVID-19 on individuals,” he added. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 > Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). > Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.

sershe 6y ago
So what this says, basically, that if comparing to the deaths and other effects from lockdowns on general population, given its age, covid deaths are to be divided by 5 or so, before even adjusting for age (I'd assume most would rather lose their 80ies than their 30ies). Then you can consider even trivial DALY adjustments for e.g. starvation (at some point, it was expected to affect 130 million extra people, by some relevant UN body), unemployment, lack of "non essential" medical care (see estimates for excess cancer deaths from the last financial crisis due to lack of care), etc., and multiply by numbers affected.

by DanBC 6y ago

sershe 6y ago

So what this says, basically, that if comparing to the deaths and other effects from lockdowns on general population, given its age, covid deaths are to be divided by 5 or so, before even adjusting for age (I'd assume most would rather lose their 80ies than their 30ies). Then you can consider even trivial DALY adjustments for e.g. starvation (at some point, it was expected to affect 130 million extra people, by some relevant UN body), unemployment, lack of "non essential" medical care (see estimates for excess cancer deaths from the last financial crisis due to lack of care), etc., and multiply by numbers affected.