4 ms·
At this point every scientist in the world is throwing any random theory out there in the hope one sticks and they will be showered in new funding. The track re
by goatinaboat 6y ago
At this point every scientist in the world is throwing any random theory out there in the hope one sticks and they will be showered in new funding. The track record of Neil Ferguson‘s Group at Imperial is representative of this industry, however.
https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/176 https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/issues/176
- MattGaiser 6y agoDon’t models assume a lack of action? Given that an alarming model is going to alter our behaviour, it seems unrealistic to expect them to match what actually happens.
- WildParser 6y agoFrom infection date ~29.February till May the growthrate in Germany is behaving mathematically exact - following a Gompertz-Model. It's not really clear if actions and visible behaviour changes did much - all of them came way too late - and there is no sign of a trendbreak that indicates any improvement.
- WildParser 6y agoAnd they are ignoring scientists that have already found models that actually work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aHrx68IT7o https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157283645163015