4 ms·
The Johns Hopkins database implies that California's overall positivity rate (i.e. the percent of COVID-19 tests of Californians that are positive) remains roug
by reissbaker 6y ago
The Johns Hopkins database implies that California's overall positivity rate (i.e. the percent of COVID-19 tests of Californians that are positive) remains roughly flat at just under 5%. [1] While that's still a concerning number (and it seems like LA in particular is not doing as well as the rest of CA), California overall is doing reasonably well, as it has been throughout the outbreak, despite our dense cities and massive population. More tests mean more positive results, but doesn't necessarily indicate worsening conditions. Cumulative totals are especially meaningless; of course an area with a large population (e.g. the Bay Area) will have large cumulative totals.
The focus on absolute numbers of positive cases (without normalizing by testing rate or population) pretty dramatically distorts the national discourse on COVID-19. California has been slow to reopen — although it is reopening — and has been criticized by the right as experiencing surging cases regardless. But that's largely inaccurate: CA is just much, much larger than any other state, and it's been reliably ramping up testing. As counterexamples, Florida and Arizona are places where the surge in cases is actually reflective of significantly worsening community spread: Arizona's positivity rate has tripled from a low of 6.5% in May to nearly 20% today [2], and Florida's positivity rate has grown 5x from a low of 2.3% in May to over 12% today [3]. Texas, another state that reopened quickly, had its positivity rate double from a low of 4.7% — approximately similar to the rate CA has managed to keep itself at — to 11% today. [4]
1: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/california https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/califo...
2: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/arizona https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/arizon...
3: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florid...
4: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas
- Barrin92 6y ago>despite our dense cities Californian cities are actually not dense at all, which may explain why it isn't even worse. LA at 7.5k /mi2, San Diego 4.4k/mi2 etc.. compare that to New York at 27k/mi2, or even Paris 54k/mi2, Barcelona 41k/mi2
- reissbaker 6y agoSan Francisco is the fourth-most dense city in America (among cities with >75,000 residents). If you only count cities with >200,000 residents, it's the second-most dense city in America, behind NYC. Its overall density is 17k/mi2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b... And if you look at entire metropolitan areas, rather than just cities, LA is actually the second-most dense metropolitan area in the country. Meanwhile, Phoenix, Arizona has a population density of 2k/mi2, and is having a massive outbreak. Public policy appears to be the determining factor in flattening the curve of COVID outbreaks, not density.