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I’ve said this before, but I think that a lack of physical modeling might be the key barrier for AV technology. Human drivers have a mental model of physics tha

I’ve said this before, but I think that a lack of physical modeling might be the key barrier for AV technology. Human drivers have a mental model of physics that they’ve honed for 17-18 hours a day since they were born.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
CardenB 6y ago
You are likely correct. I think most researchers would agree, however. The bigger issue is actually learning how to form complex models. People want networks to just learn this implicitly, believing that we would likely impose counterproductive models. Other people simply struggle to incorporate models into the training process.
- piyh 6y ago
  2 minute papers has good videos on neural nets learning physical modeling https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bw5f4vYL98 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bw5f4vYL98
CyberDildonics 6y ago
This isn't something that has never been thought of. Jim Keller described many problems like changing lanes as a matter of ballistics.
mhh__ 6y ago
Vehicle dynamics is a fairly accurate science these days (50/50 for the tires)
- jefft255 6y ago
  I'm working on autonomous off-road vehicles, and while this is (probably) true for autonomous cars, dynamics modeling for wheeled robots on rough terrain is another beast where these approaches could very much help.
  - mhh__ 6y ago
    Is the issue in the surface modelling? I don't think I've ever seen a physical tire model for loose terrain
    - jefft255 6y ago
      People in space robotics have been working on that (moon and mars rovers need to deal with this). Perception is also a bottleneck; you have to see rocks, root, grass, mud and predict the effects on the dynamics.
- solotronics 6y ago
  Racing teams and big car manufacturers have incredibly accurate models of vehicle dynamics.
  - mhh__ 6y ago
    But not outside those teams. If you want to put something together in a few weeks your options are relatively limited in that collecting accurate data is fairly hard. The actual dynamics of the car is fairly simple but the forces applied to it are quite hard to model (I don't know how much Michelin charge to use TameTire but I'm guessing not cheap)
- keenmaster 6y ago
  Sure, but to be clear, I meant physical modeling which includes real-time modeling of all salient objects and surfaces in the immediate and foreseeable environment. I mean going as far as creating a physical model for deer, their range of behavior and speed, weight distribution, predictive modeling for subsequent behavior, etc...
Fricken 6y ago
Don't sell biology short like that. Human driver are born with a mental model of physics that's been honed 24 hours a day since before they were diatoms.
- mtgp1000 6y ago
  I don't think that's quite right. I believe that humans are essentially born as blank neural networks; it's the structure, and the graph of connections between brain structures and sensory inputs, that is effectively primed for learning certain tasks that we find to be intuitive. A baby is not born with the knowledge of body movement, for example, but through natural exploration of the body and environment, almost all physically capable humans learn to walk.
  - SamReidHughes 6y ago
    I disagree with this, sort of completely, after having been attacked by an animal. There is millions of years of evolution that will wake up and save you from getting hurt as it recognizes what's happening and instantly formulates a response to it.
  - redisman 6y ago
    > A baby is not born with the knowledge of body movement Anyone who's witnessed a birth can tell you this is wrong.
    - inetknght 6y ago
      Perhaps born is the wrong word. That freshly-born baby did have nine months of gestation during which it's undoubtedly been exploring how to move about and sense its very limited environment.
      - TechBro8615 6y ago
        “Pushed to prod”
      - 6y ago
MereInterest 6y ago
Side note, is "AV" to mean "autonomous vehicles" (assumed from context) a common usage? I've only ever heard it mean "audio/visual".
- keenmaster 6y ago
  Yes. That usage of the acronym works when there are enough context clues. I think it will supplant the "audio/visual" meaning as autonomous vehicles become more salient. Here is text from an old job posting at Ford quoted on TechCrunch: "We are seeking exceptional candidates to join our growing Autonomous Vehicle (AV) business team!" https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/13/ford-is-expanding-its-self-driving-vehicle-program-to-austin/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/13/ford-is-expanding-its-self...
- yongjik 6y ago
  > autonomous vehicles ...oh that makes so much more sense! -.-

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

CardenB 6y ago

You are likely correct. I think most researchers would agree, however. The bigger issue is actually learning how to form complex models. People want networks to just learn this implicitly, believing that we would likely impose counterproductive models. Other people simply struggle to incorporate models into the training process.

piyh 6y ago
2 minute papers has good videos on neural nets learning physical modeling https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bw5f4vYL98 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bw5f4vYL98

CyberDildonics 6y ago

This isn't something that has never been thought of. Jim Keller described many problems like changing lanes as a matter of ballistics.

mhh__ 6y ago

Vehicle dynamics is a fairly accurate science these days (50/50 for the tires)

jefft255 6y ago
I'm working on autonomous off-road vehicles, and while this is (probably) true for autonomous cars, dynamics modeling for wheeled robots on rough terrain is another beast where these approaches could very much help.
- mhh__ 6y ago
  Is the issue in the surface modelling? I don't think I've ever seen a physical tire model for loose terrain
  - jefft255 6y ago
    People in space robotics have been working on that (moon and mars rovers need to deal with this). Perception is also a bottleneck; you have to see rocks, root, grass, mud and predict the effects on the dynamics.
solotronics 6y ago
Racing teams and big car manufacturers have incredibly accurate models of vehicle dynamics.
- mhh__ 6y ago
  But not outside those teams. If you want to put something together in a few weeks your options are relatively limited in that collecting accurate data is fairly hard. The actual dynamics of the car is fairly simple but the forces applied to it are quite hard to model (I don't know how much Michelin charge to use TameTire but I'm guessing not cheap)
keenmaster 6y ago
Sure, but to be clear, I meant physical modeling which includes real-time modeling of all salient objects and surfaces in the immediate and foreseeable environment. I mean going as far as creating a physical model for deer, their range of behavior and speed, weight distribution, predictive modeling for subsequent behavior, etc...

Fricken 6y ago

Don't sell biology short like that. Human driver are born with a mental model of physics that's been honed 24 hours a day since before they were diatoms.

mtgp1000 6y ago
I don't think that's quite right. I believe that humans are essentially born as blank neural networks; it's the structure, and the graph of connections between brain structures and sensory inputs, that is effectively primed for learning certain tasks that we find to be intuitive. A baby is not born with the knowledge of body movement, for example, but through natural exploration of the body and environment, almost all physically capable humans learn to walk.
- SamReidHughes 6y ago
  I disagree with this, sort of completely, after having been attacked by an animal. There is millions of years of evolution that will wake up and save you from getting hurt as it recognizes what's happening and instantly formulates a response to it.
- redisman 6y ago
  > A baby is not born with the knowledge of body movement Anyone who's witnessed a birth can tell you this is wrong.
  - inetknght 6y ago
    Perhaps born is the wrong word. That freshly-born baby did have nine months of gestation during which it's undoubtedly been exploring how to move about and sense its very limited environment.
    - TechBro8615 6y ago
      “Pushed to prod”
    - 6y ago

MereInterest 6y ago

Side note, is "AV" to mean "autonomous vehicles" (assumed from context) a common usage? I've only ever heard it mean "audio/visual".

keenmaster 6y ago
Yes. That usage of the acronym works when there are enough context clues. I think it will supplant the "audio/visual" meaning as autonomous vehicles become more salient. Here is text from an old job posting at Ford quoted on TechCrunch: "We are seeking exceptional candidates to join our growing Autonomous Vehicle (AV) business team!" https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/13/ford-is-expanding-its-self-driving-vehicle-program-to-austin/ https://techcrunch.com/2019/03/13/ford-is-expanding-its-self...
yongjik 6y ago
> autonomous vehicles ...oh that makes so much more sense! -.-