6 ms·

For 2.5 month now we are always two weeks away from a catastrophe with mass graves and hospital parking lots full of dead people. And then two weeks pass and no

by eiji 6y ago

For 2.5 month now we are always two weeks away from a catastrophe with mass graves and hospital parking lots full of dead people. And then two weeks pass and nothing really happens. Reality just doesn't seem to square up with the fearmongering.

HarryHirsch 6y ago
Go work at the nearest meat processing plant.
- eiji 6y ago
  That's just hyperbole and a statements to shut down a conversation. That statement has nothing to do with "one should absolutely be concerned about the number of total cases".
  - HarryHirsch 6y ago
    The fact that there are continuously new outbreaks in meat processing plants shows that indoors the disease is easily transmitted, and it's so serious that the workforce is off sick with high fever for weeks. The CFR for coronaplague is ~ 1 %, comparable to the Spanish Flu in Germany. The impact was catastrophic, the High Command had to decide between sending young men to the front or keeping them at work in coal and steel. In those days there was little automation, the infection would spread like wildfire through the workforce at any large employer. The only reason we aren't seeing the same now is that people adhere to some form of social distancing - work from home, no going out to bars, no gym, no church, kids are not in school, but as soon as guard is dropped infection rates jump up again. We are seeing this as well. Israel had new cases down to 1 per 100000 people until they opened up the schools and cases increased by two orders of magnitude.
Gibbon1 6y ago
Well that's not actually wrong. The number of cases can go up 20 fold in two weeks without social distancing measures and people wearing masks.
tunesmith 6y ago
The US has had around 8,000 deaths from COVID in the last two weeks.
- pbreit 6y ago
  And around 110,000 from other causes.
  - tunesmith 6y ago
    Which are still happening. Your point would have resonance if Covid were replacing a sufficient number of those deaths. But, it's additive.
    - aianus 6y ago
      The lockdown is causing deaths too which also need to be considered. We shut down cancer screening and gyms for 3 months in Ontario; that’s almost certainly going to kill more people than COVID did.
      - wonderwonder 6y ago
        How will shutting down gyms for 3 months kill more people that covid? ~2600 people died from covid in Ontario. Are you saying that they gyms being closed caused more than that?
        aianus 6y ago
        At ~10y of life lost per COVID death that's about 320,000 months of life lost to COVID in Ontario. If there are ~1 million gym patrons in Ontario, then the gym lockdown (which is still ongoing) only needs to decrease a gym patron's lifespan by 10 days on average to be worse than COVID. Also, I claimed cancer screenings + gyms combined. Hundreds of people get diagnosed with malignant tumors every day in Ontario and those tumors are now 3 months more advanced than they should be (and will be for a long time after the lockdown until the queues for medical care clear up).
catalogia 6y ago
Just wait until two weeks from now...
subsubzero 6y ago
On some points I agree, the disease is really terrible, the problem is elected officials are wildly unprepared for the job at hand. I'll never forget Gavin Newsom's dire proclamation that 25M Californians would have covid 19 in a few weeks(we have 174k currently), this was late march [1]. In addition in Santa Clara county I remember this statement saying 16k deaths from covid by end of May(we have 152 currently) - [2]. Don't get me started on Trumps statements! If I put out these insane numbers at my job I would have been fired, and if I wasn't fired I would have resigned in shame. These statements bring extreme anxiety and fear to people and I feel like there will be repercussions come Nov. [1] - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/newsom-california-25-million-coronavirus-cases-two-months https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/newsom-c... [2] - https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/san-jose-braces-for-2000-covid-19-deaths-over-next-two-months/ https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/san-jose-braces-for-2000-...
- sarah180 6y ago
  "They told us all that we shouldn't jump off a bridge into shallow water, so none of us did—and not one single person got hurt. I can't believe we all listened to such wild fearmongering." You've made a classic converse error.
- lutorm 6y ago
  Weren't those projections for the "business as usual" scenario? Isn't the fact that the number of actual cases are far lower just a reflection of the fact that society has, in fact, responded by changing the situation and thus lower transmission?
piva00 6y ago
For 2.5 months the cases (both in the US and worldwide) have climbed steadily, even with all the measures implemented worldwide to cooldown the rate of infection, we are beating day after day the record of infections and deaths in the world. The US didn't devolve into mass graves and people dying waiting for hospital care yet, it doesn't mean that the fearmongering is misplaced and the more you doubt it the more you will be part of the problem.
- anonyxyz 6y ago
  But it did in NYC. The freezer truck outside of my local funeral home only disappeared about 2 weeks ago.
- banads 6y ago
  >we are beating day after day the record of infections and deaths in the world. No, we are not setting death records day after day. Deaths worldwide have held steady since mid May; deaths in the US have been trending downwards since May.

by eiji 6y ago

HarryHirsch 6y ago

Go work at the nearest meat processing plant.

eiji 6y ago
That's just hyperbole and a statements to shut down a conversation. That statement has nothing to do with "one should absolutely be concerned about the number of total cases".
- HarryHirsch 6y ago
  The fact that there are continuously new outbreaks in meat processing plants shows that indoors the disease is easily transmitted, and it's so serious that the workforce is off sick with high fever for weeks. The CFR for coronaplague is ~ 1 %, comparable to the Spanish Flu in Germany. The impact was catastrophic, the High Command had to decide between sending young men to the front or keeping them at work in coal and steel. In those days there was little automation, the infection would spread like wildfire through the workforce at any large employer. The only reason we aren't seeing the same now is that people adhere to some form of social distancing - work from home, no going out to bars, no gym, no church, kids are not in school, but as soon as guard is dropped infection rates jump up again. We are seeing this as well. Israel had new cases down to 1 per 100000 people until they opened up the schools and cases increased by two orders of magnitude.

Gibbon1 6y ago

Well that's not actually wrong. The number of cases can go up 20 fold in two weeks without social distancing measures and people wearing masks.

tunesmith 6y ago

The US has had around 8,000 deaths from COVID in the last two weeks.

pbreit 6y ago
And around 110,000 from other causes.
- tunesmith 6y ago
  Which are still happening. Your point would have resonance if Covid were replacing a sufficient number of those deaths. But, it's additive.
  - aianus 6y ago
    The lockdown is causing deaths too which also need to be considered. We shut down cancer screening and gyms for 3 months in Ontario; that’s almost certainly going to kill more people than COVID did.
    - wonderwonder 6y ago
      How will shutting down gyms for 3 months kill more people that covid? ~2600 people died from covid in Ontario. Are you saying that they gyms being closed caused more than that?
      - aianus 6y ago
        At ~10y of life lost per COVID death that's about 320,000 months of life lost to COVID in Ontario. If there are ~1 million gym patrons in Ontario, then the gym lockdown (which is still ongoing) only needs to decrease a gym patron's lifespan by 10 days on average to be worse than COVID. Also, I claimed cancer screenings + gyms combined. Hundreds of people get diagnosed with malignant tumors every day in Ontario and those tumors are now 3 months more advanced than they should be (and will be for a long time after the lockdown until the queues for medical care clear up).

catalogia 6y ago

Just wait until two weeks from now...

subsubzero 6y ago

On some points I agree, the disease is really terrible, the problem is elected officials are wildly unprepared for the job at hand. I'll never forget Gavin Newsom's dire proclamation that 25M Californians would have covid 19 in a few weeks(we have 174k currently), this was late march [1]. In addition in Santa Clara county I remember this statement saying 16k deaths from covid by end of May(we have 152 currently) - [2]. Don't get me started on Trumps statements! If I put out these insane numbers at my job I would have been fired, and if I wasn't fired I would have resigned in shame. These statements bring extreme anxiety and fear to people and I feel like there will be repercussions come Nov. [1] - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/newsom-california-25-million-coronavirus-cases-two-months https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/newsom-c... [2] - https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/san-jose-braces-for-2000-covid-19-deaths-over-next-two-months/ https://www.sanjoseinside.com/news/san-jose-braces-for-2000-...

sarah180 6y ago
"They told us all that we shouldn't jump off a bridge into shallow water, so none of us did—and not one single person got hurt. I can't believe we all listened to such wild fearmongering." You've made a classic converse error.
lutorm 6y ago
Weren't those projections for the "business as usual" scenario? Isn't the fact that the number of actual cases are far lower just a reflection of the fact that society has, in fact, responded by changing the situation and thus lower transmission?

piva00 6y ago

For 2.5 months the cases (both in the US and worldwide) have climbed steadily, even with all the measures implemented worldwide to cooldown the rate of infection, we are beating day after day the record of infections and deaths in the world. The US didn't devolve into mass graves and people dying waiting for hospital care yet, it doesn't mean that the fearmongering is misplaced and the more you doubt it the more you will be part of the problem.

anonyxyz 6y ago
But it did in NYC. The freezer truck outside of my local funeral home only disappeared about 2 weeks ago.
banads 6y ago
>we are beating day after day the record of infections and deaths in the world. No, we are not setting death records day after day. Deaths worldwide have held steady since mid May; deaths in the US have been trending downwards since May.