Yeah exactly this. Luck is arguably the most important variable, so optimize for it. It's less like buying lottery tickets and more like betting on horses but

Yeah exactly this. Luck is arguably the most important variable, so optimize for it. It's less like buying lottery tickets and more like betting on horses but with outsized returns. If you bet on one horse, in one race, you'll probably lose and blame luck. But if you keep on betting, you're going to get lucky. 5% chance of success on a given attempt just means try 50 times. Which is also why it's important to test ideas fast and cheap, killing bad ideas quickly. Practically speaking, who you know, who knows you, where you are, and when seem to be the external factors, and the number of distinct attempts seems to be the internal factor. Do you have any other insights to add?