4 ms·

Success is more random than we'd like to believe Perhaps, but I think a lot of people tend to say that, then conclude that they should just wait around for luc

Success is more random than we'd like to believe Perhaps, but I think a lot of people tend to say that, then conclude that they should just wait around for luck (not saying you're doing this, though). Another approach is to do everything you can (podcast appearances, for example!) to increase your "luck surface area".

cvlasdkv 6y ago
> Perhaps, but I think a lot of people tend to say that, then conclude that they should just wait around for luck (not saying you're doing this, though). I'm curious as to why you think that? It could be cultural differences but I have never seen that behaviour except from those that are already depressed and have given up. IMO the simplest analogy for success is poker. You make the best decisions you can given the information you have. You adjust as new information is revealed. Ultimately, success or failure is less relevant than the process.
- gbacon 6y ago
  Yet the same faces seem to show up over and over at the final table because some are better than others at executing the process, maintaining control of emotions, bankroll management, and so on.
  - cvlasdkv 6y ago
    Of course given a large enough sample size process wins out! People's capabilities and knowledge differ. The issue is in determining _what_ good process _is_ given the vast environment that is a globalized economy. That is why socioeconomic status is so important with respect to success. There's a difference when you can play a thousand hands vs. ten.
jlbnjmn 6y ago
Yeah exactly this. Luck is arguably the most important variable, so optimize for it. It's less like buying lottery tickets and more like betting on horses but with outsized returns. If you bet on one horse, in one race, you'll probably lose and blame luck. But if you keep on betting, you're going to get lucky. 5% chance of success on a given attempt just means try 50 times. Which is also why it's important to test ideas fast and cheap, killing bad ideas quickly. Practically speaking, who you know, who knows you, where you are, and when seem to be the external factors, and the number of distinct attempts seems to be the internal factor. Do you have any other insights to add?
mavsman 6y ago
There's a saying: "Pray like it all depends on God. Work like it all depends on you." Adapt that to your belief system.
- jessaustin 6y ago
  Work and prayer are not enough. While one's nose is to the grindstone, beavering away at whatever task, someone slightly wiser will notice some shortcut worth a year of diligent labor and prayer. The leisure time that shortcut buys will enable the identification of other valuable knowledge... It may be better yet to join such ingenuity with the labor you're talking about.
  - gbacon 6y ago
    But ingenuity is part of work. Granted, knowing when to take a step back from brute force is a skill that must be developed and one at which some seem to have stronger natural aptitude than others.

cvlasdkv 6y ago

> Perhaps, but I think a lot of people tend to say that, then conclude that they should just wait around for luck (not saying you're doing this, though). I'm curious as to why you think that? It could be cultural differences but I have never seen that behaviour except from those that are already depressed and have given up. IMO the simplest analogy for success is poker. You make the best decisions you can given the information you have. You adjust as new information is revealed. Ultimately, success or failure is less relevant than the process.

gbacon 6y ago
Yet the same faces seem to show up over and over at the final table because some are better than others at executing the process, maintaining control of emotions, bankroll management, and so on.
- cvlasdkv 6y ago
  Of course given a large enough sample size process wins out! People's capabilities and knowledge differ. The issue is in determining _what_ good process _is_ given the vast environment that is a globalized economy. That is why socioeconomic status is so important with respect to success. There's a difference when you can play a thousand hands vs. ten.

jlbnjmn 6y ago

Yeah exactly this. Luck is arguably the most important variable, so optimize for it. It's less like buying lottery tickets and more like betting on horses but with outsized returns. If you bet on one horse, in one race, you'll probably lose and blame luck. But if you keep on betting, you're going to get lucky. 5% chance of success on a given attempt just means try 50 times. Which is also why it's important to test ideas fast and cheap, killing bad ideas quickly. Practically speaking, who you know, who knows you, where you are, and when seem to be the external factors, and the number of distinct attempts seems to be the internal factor. Do you have any other insights to add?

mavsman 6y ago

There's a saying: "Pray like it all depends on God. Work like it all depends on you." Adapt that to your belief system.

jessaustin 6y ago
Work and prayer are not enough. While one's nose is to the grindstone, beavering away at whatever task, someone slightly wiser will notice some shortcut worth a year of diligent labor and prayer. The leisure time that shortcut buys will enable the identification of other valuable knowledge... It may be better yet to join such ingenuity with the labor you're talking about.
- gbacon 6y ago
  But ingenuity is part of work. Granted, knowing when to take a step back from brute force is a skill that must be developed and one at which some seem to have stronger natural aptitude than others.