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China can bomb TSMC, no doubt. But landing troops (they can't march, it's an island, and the difference between amphibious and land based operations matters a
by mercutio2 6y ago
China can bomb TSMC, no doubt.
But landing troops (they can't march, it's an island, and the difference between amphibious and land based operations matters a lot) would be extremely difficult, and not obviously in the PLA's favor. See, for example:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
- kspacewalk2 6y agoChina's sheer scale means there aren't too many military shortcomings it can't address on a roughly 10-year timeframe.
- dmix 6y agoThe larger point is that it'd be way too messy for them to even try. Basically on the scale of US/SK invading NK. Besides that significant causalities and economic damage to both sides, which of course they'd eventually win, but it'd be a geopolitical disaster that won't end with the quelling of the armed forces. China has far more to gain not going this route.
- elcritch 6y agoI’d imagine China would more likely begin blockading Taiwan, at least until the US and the west responded. Given the strength of US naval power it’ll be a while before China consider even that.
- diroussel 6y agoIf China mearly wanted to destroy Taiwan's civilian society, they could do it. But to take out the defences and make an amphebious landing across a large and dangerous sea is extremely hard. Perhaps possibly only with cyber-warefare to disable the defenses.