5 ms·

They are complaining about "racial bias" in predictive policing products. This "racial bias" is composed of data collected from crime statistics. If reality doe

They are complaining about "racial bias" in predictive policing products. This "racial bias" is composed of data collected from crime statistics. If reality doesn't support the ideology, reality must be ignored. This is the sorry state of academia nowadays.

danharaj 6y ago
You are engaging in circular reasoning.
truculent 6y ago
Are you suggesting that data cannot be biased? If so, might I suggest you try reading an elementary guide to statistics? Heck, even a blog post would do.
josefresco 6y ago
"It is simply too easy to create a ‘scientific’ veneer for racism." It seems, law enforcement was using data to create their own reality.
- lazyjones 6y ago
  No, it seems certain mathematicians simply assume this to be the case without any scientific argument behind it. Perhaps it's just too easy to call something "racism" just because we don't like it?
psychometry 6y ago
Your asinine point was addressed in the article you're commenting. Evidently, you didn't read it.
wdevanny 6y ago
I think many of the mathematicians would agree with: >This "racial bias" is composed of data collected from crime statistics. They disagree that crime statistics are reflective of where crime occurs. They are more reflective of where police officers are and where crimes are most easily spotted. For example, the racial disparities in policing crack cocaine versus powder cocaine. Predictive systems that read in biased data will produce biased data.
- lazyjones 6y ago
  > They are more reflective of where police officers are and where crimes are most easily spotted. The article says: MacDonald argues that PredPol uses only crimes reported by victims, such as burglaries and robberies, to inform its software. “We never do predictions for crime types that have the possibility of officer-initiated bias, such as drug crimes or prostitution,” he says.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    That doesn't mean reports are completely independent. Isn't it obvious that the perception of whether the police will do anything is going to affect the reporting?
    - antepodius 6y ago
      Wouldn't that affect it in an inhibitory way, though? Black areas would be reporting less crime than actually occurs- so if reported crime rates there are still higher, that tells us something?
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        Just as a thought experiment, it could be that lesser crimes are not reported because the police don't take them seriously, which leads to more criminals committing major crimes, which are mostly reported. By lesser crimes I don't mean trivial things that provide an excuse to harass non-criminals and give "broken window" policing a bad name, but actual crimes which aren't major violent crimes.
- google234123 6y ago
  I would guess that the murder rate data is pretty complete.
krohling 6y ago
I don't think that's accurate at all. These algorithms are only as accurate as the data being input into them. The current system of policing is deeply flawed and as a result the "data collected from crime statistics" will be skewed by these inherent, systemic biases. Mathematical optimization against a flawed dataset of this kind is highly likely to create a feedback loop of increasing bias with terrible human consequences.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  This seems like a plausible criticism, but it also seems like a plausible criticism of all data and derivates about human beings (and probably other things).
  - chaps 6y ago
    Clearly you haven't seen crime or police data. It's truly, truly awful. That, and the people running analysis on it are just as bad: https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more-people-for-protesting-than-for-looting-in-early-days-of-unrest-contradicting-original-claims/ https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more... Garbage in crunched by garbage is still garbage out.
  - cvlasdkv 6y ago
    It _is_ a plausible criticism of all data and why we want such large (and diverse) sets of them. source: work with data and am not terrible at my job
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
ReticentVole 6y ago
African Americans are killed by police at the same or lesser rates than other races. However, they are killed at much higher absolute rates because they commit a significantly greater amount of crime. It doesn't take a PHD in mathematics to figure this out. Here is just one data source from NYC: http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/nypd_annual_firearms_discharge_report_2012.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_plan... Subjects firing on Police: 79% Black Subjects killed by Police gunfire: 69% Black If you want to tackle Black crime, start with decriminalising drugs, and then getting Black fathers back into marriage and raising their children. Destroy the idea that being law-abiding, studying hard, and being regularly employed is 'acting white'. Scale back welfare to make all these things more attractive, and restrict immigration to direct more job opportunities to African Americans instead of Latin American and Indian migrants.
- raarts 6y ago
  In support of your argument: Obama has said in his 'fatherhood speech': "We know the statistics - that children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime; nine times more likely to drop out of schools and 20 times more likely to end up in prison. They are more likely to have behavioral problems, or run away from home or become teenage parents themselves." Almost 65% of black children are raised without a father (white: 24%). Together these numbers imho give a much better explanation towards black crime and disadvantages than inherent bias.

danharaj 6y ago

You are engaging in circular reasoning.

truculent 6y ago

Are you suggesting that data cannot be biased? If so, might I suggest you try reading an elementary guide to statistics? Heck, even a blog post would do.

josefresco 6y ago

"It is simply too easy to create a ‘scientific’ veneer for racism." It seems, law enforcement was using data to create their own reality.

lazyjones 6y ago
No, it seems certain mathematicians simply assume this to be the case without any scientific argument behind it. Perhaps it's just too easy to call something "racism" just because we don't like it?

psychometry 6y ago

Your asinine point was addressed in the article you're commenting. Evidently, you didn't read it.

wdevanny 6y ago

I think many of the mathematicians would agree with: >This "racial bias" is composed of data collected from crime statistics. They disagree that crime statistics are reflective of where crime occurs. They are more reflective of where police officers are and where crimes are most easily spotted. For example, the racial disparities in policing crack cocaine versus powder cocaine. Predictive systems that read in biased data will produce biased data.

lazyjones 6y ago
> They are more reflective of where police officers are and where crimes are most easily spotted. The article says: MacDonald argues that PredPol uses only crimes reported by victims, such as burglaries and robberies, to inform its software. “We never do predictions for crime types that have the possibility of officer-initiated bias, such as drug crimes or prostitution,” he says.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  That doesn't mean reports are completely independent. Isn't it obvious that the perception of whether the police will do anything is going to affect the reporting?
  - antepodius 6y ago
    Wouldn't that affect it in an inhibitory way, though? Black areas would be reporting less crime than actually occurs- so if reported crime rates there are still higher, that tells us something?
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      Just as a thought experiment, it could be that lesser crimes are not reported because the police don't take them seriously, which leads to more criminals committing major crimes, which are mostly reported. By lesser crimes I don't mean trivial things that provide an excuse to harass non-criminals and give "broken window" policing a bad name, but actual crimes which aren't major violent crimes.
google234123 6y ago
I would guess that the murder rate data is pretty complete.

krohling 6y ago

I don't think that's accurate at all. These algorithms are only as accurate as the data being input into them. The current system of policing is deeply flawed and as a result the "data collected from crime statistics" will be skewed by these inherent, systemic biases. Mathematical optimization against a flawed dataset of this kind is highly likely to create a feedback loop of increasing bias with terrible human consequences.

perl4ever 6y ago
This seems like a plausible criticism, but it also seems like a plausible criticism of all data and derivates about human beings (and probably other things).
- chaps 6y ago
  Clearly you haven't seen crime or police data. It's truly, truly awful. That, and the people running analysis on it are just as bad: https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more-people-for-protesting-than-for-looting-in-early-days-of-unrest-contradicting-original-claims/ https://www.chicagoreporter.com/chicago-police-arrested-more... Garbage in crunched by garbage is still garbage out.
- cvlasdkv 6y ago
  It _is_ a plausible criticism of all data and why we want such large (and diverse) sets of them. source: work with data and am not terrible at my job

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

ReticentVole 6y ago

African Americans are killed by police at the same or lesser rates than other races. However, they are killed at much higher absolute rates because they commit a significantly greater amount of crime. It doesn't take a PHD in mathematics to figure this out. Here is just one data source from NYC: http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/nypd_annual_firearms_discharge_report_2012.pdf http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_plan... Subjects firing on Police: 79% Black Subjects killed by Police gunfire: 69% Black If you want to tackle Black crime, start with decriminalising drugs, and then getting Black fathers back into marriage and raising their children. Destroy the idea that being law-abiding, studying hard, and being regularly employed is 'acting white'. Scale back welfare to make all these things more attractive, and restrict immigration to direct more job opportunities to African Americans instead of Latin American and Indian migrants.

raarts 6y ago
In support of your argument: Obama has said in his 'fatherhood speech': "We know the statistics - that children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime; nine times more likely to drop out of schools and 20 times more likely to end up in prison. They are more likely to have behavioral problems, or run away from home or become teenage parents themselves." Almost 65% of black children are raised without a father (white: 24%). Together these numbers imho give a much better explanation towards black crime and disadvantages than inherent bias.