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It takes a while for people to die after infection. Give states like Georgia time to catch up. Their hospitals will be overwhelmed and the numbers of deaths wil

by aedocw 6y ago

It takes a while for people to die after infection. Give states like Georgia time to catch up. Their hospitals will be overwhelmed and the numbers of deaths will get there. There is no "less deadly version of the virus". Treatment protocols have improved but that has not dramatically changed the odds of at-risk folks dying.

joshuahughes 6y ago
Honestly curious... what is there to gain from pessimistic fear-mongering if the data is stubbornly telling a different story?
chrisco255 6y ago
People have been saying that now for almost two months. Georgia started to reopen April 24th. It's not registering in the data.
- eanzenberg 6y ago
  They’ll keep saying it all the way to November.
  - Loughla 6y ago
    Are you really making a global pandemic into an american political issue? Seriously? How far in the sand is your head? It's right there in the title global pandemic.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  What isn't registering in what data? Reopening takes time to result in new cases recorded, and new cases take time to result in new deaths recorded. Reasonable estimates for the latter are about a month, and maybe the first part also took a month. Georgia now has about 1,200 new cases daily compared to ~700 in New York. Only a month ago, New York had more like 2,000 per day. Is it controversial that it takes about a month for new cases to turn into new deaths? Do you believe that isn't happening or won't happen in Georgia?
jmchuster 6y ago
The China strain that people get on the west coast has been shown to be less deadly than the Italy strain that people get on the east coast.
- nostrademons 6y ago
  It's been shown to be less infectious. Mortality rates are the same for both strains.
  - jmchuster 6y ago
    No idea what original article I read now that compared mortality rates, but I'd suspect it used this analysis as it's source: https://www.cato.org/blog/two-supertypes-coronavirus-east-asian-european https://www.cato.org/blog/two-supertypes-coronavirus-east-as... which led me to conclude that the mortality rate differed.
    - nostrademons 6y ago
      Here's the Twitter thread from Trevor Bedford (head of the NextStrain project cited in your link) reviewing the work that discovered the spike protein mutation in the European strain that may affect transmissibility: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825352660877313 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825352660877313 "Both Korber et al and our analysis show no measurable effect on patient outcome. Hence, the hypothesis at this point is entirely in terms of transmissibility rather than severity. 14/16" The conclusion that mortality is higher comes from the higher death rates in European countries. However, there's a major confounder: when the epidemic exceeds testing capacity, only the most severe cases are tested and counted, and so the denominator in mortality rates (total cases) is inaccurately small. We know this is the case in much of Europe (and NYC): follow-up antibody tests put the number of total infections at ~10x the number of detected cases. That brings the mortality rate back in line with the ~0.5-1% that's been found in populations where everyone was tested.
      - jmchuster 6y ago

by aedocw 6y ago

joshuahughes 6y ago

Honestly curious... what is there to gain from pessimistic fear-mongering if the data is stubbornly telling a different story?

chrisco255 6y ago

People have been saying that now for almost two months. Georgia started to reopen April 24th. It's not registering in the data.

eanzenberg 6y ago
They’ll keep saying it all the way to November.
- Loughla 6y ago
  Are you really making a global pandemic into an american political issue? Seriously? How far in the sand is your head? It's right there in the title global pandemic.
perl4ever 6y ago
What isn't registering in what data? Reopening takes time to result in new cases recorded, and new cases take time to result in new deaths recorded. Reasonable estimates for the latter are about a month, and maybe the first part also took a month. Georgia now has about 1,200 new cases daily compared to ~700 in New York. Only a month ago, New York had more like 2,000 per day. Is it controversial that it takes about a month for new cases to turn into new deaths? Do you believe that isn't happening or won't happen in Georgia?

jmchuster 6y ago

The China strain that people get on the west coast has been shown to be less deadly than the Italy strain that people get on the east coast.

nostrademons 6y ago
It's been shown to be less infectious. Mortality rates are the same for both strains.
- jmchuster 6y ago
  No idea what original article I read now that compared mortality rates, but I'd suspect it used this analysis as it's source: https://www.cato.org/blog/two-supertypes-coronavirus-east-asian-european https://www.cato.org/blog/two-supertypes-coronavirus-east-as... which led me to conclude that the mortality rate differed.
  - nostrademons 6y ago
    Here's the Twitter thread from Trevor Bedford (head of the NextStrain project cited in your link) reviewing the work that discovered the spike protein mutation in the European strain that may affect transmissibility: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825352660877313 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1257825352660877313 "Both Korber et al and our analysis show no measurable effect on patient outcome. Hence, the hypothesis at this point is entirely in terms of transmissibility rather than severity. 14/16" The conclusion that mortality is higher comes from the higher death rates in European countries. However, there's a major confounder: when the epidemic exceeds testing capacity, only the most severe cases are tested and counted, and so the denominator in mortality rates (total cases) is inaccurately small. We know this is the case in much of Europe (and NYC): follow-up antibody tests put the number of total infections at ~10x the number of detected cases. That brings the mortality rate back in line with the ~0.5-1% that's been found in populations where everyone was tested.
    - jmchuster 6y ago