5 ms·
As a stupid, but determined person this gives me hope :D
by clistctrl 16y ago
As a stupid, but determined person this gives me hope :D
- rokhayakebe 16y agoWell you need to be a bit stupid to want to start a business. You would be considered stupid if someone told you you have a 5% chance at every kissing this girl, yet you decide to spend the next 3 years of your life pursuing her and her only. This is exactly what we do.
- cperciva 16y agoYou would be considered stupid if someone told you you have a 5% chance at every kissing this girl, yet you decide to spend the next 3 years of your life pursuing her and her only. If that girl is worth more than 20x as much to you as any other girl, a 5% chance is worth it.
- jacoblyles 16y agoMost people have some risk aversion. For example, few people would trade $10 million for a 10% chance at $100 million.
- rokhayakebe 16y agoInteresting. I am assuming you would. Can you briefly explain your reasoning?
- marvin 16y agoUnless you really, really need 100 million, no reasoning will make that a good bet. The expected value is 10 million, and since that's what you're putting at stake, you have nothing to gain. Whereas the utility value of a guaranteed 10 million, assuming you're not very rich already, is huge. It's more than an average lifetime of hard work.
- cperciva 16y agoTrue, but it's probably not a good idea to tell your girlfriend that.
- nwilkens 16y agoIf determination could increase your chance, then you may be better going for $100 million. Otherwise take $10m.
- rokhayakebe 16y agoI think like you, but I know it is still irrational.
- vecter 16y agoThat's true assuming a linear or convex utility function. Most people have concave risk functions, so they would rather spend their time with the girl who's 5x better than the average girl, but have a 50% shot with.
- chrisaycock 16y agoProgress in life often comes through a healthy dose of foolishness.