4 ms·

You're betting that in the next roughly two-and-a-half years, the common sense problem will be solved well enough to fool me, despite not having been solved in

You're betting that in the next roughly two-and-a-half years, the common sense problem will be solved well enough to fool me, despite not having been solved in the entire history of AI up until now. I'll take that bet. How confident are you?

p1esk 6y ago
To fool you for 20 questions, yes. I'm ~70% confident, so I'll bet you $100 :) To clarify, the common sense problem is a hard one. It is similar to level 5 autonomy driving. That will take a while to solve. But what we are talking about here is kinda like Waymo cars which can drive themselves in ideal weather at slow speeds in Arizona. So in 2.5 years I think the best chatbots will be as far from having common sense as the current Waymo self driving cars are from level 5 autonomy. Which is to say they will be pretty good.
- inimino 6y ago
  You're on for $100. I'm > 99% confident that I won't be fooled by any AI before 2023, and would have bet any amount that I could afford to set aside. Ideal weather at slow speeds, with a professional human driver throwing road-condition curveballs at you and challenging your responses? I like my chances.
  - p1esk 6y ago
    Sounds good! My email is in my profile, if I'm wrong I'll pay up! :) Keep in mind that you would have to differentiate bot's responses from those of an old truck driver, a snobby philosophy student, a conspiracy theorist, a stoner, a bimbo following latest Kardashians news, etc. Lots of different personalities of real humans who can throw curveballs at you during a chat session. I hope you don't expect to only chat with bay area devs? :)
    - inimino 6y ago
      I'd be very disappointed if I only get bay area devs (since that's a miniscule fraction of the people I've had the pleasure of having interesting discussions with during my life). And indeed, "give me a few sentences about your background, schooling, and interests" is an excellent opening question ;)

p1esk 6y ago

To fool you for 20 questions, yes. I'm ~70% confident, so I'll bet you $100 :) To clarify, the common sense problem is a hard one. It is similar to level 5 autonomy driving. That will take a while to solve. But what we are talking about here is kinda like Waymo cars which can drive themselves in ideal weather at slow speeds in Arizona. So in 2.5 years I think the best chatbots will be as far from having common sense as the current Waymo self driving cars are from level 5 autonomy. Which is to say they will be pretty good.

inimino 6y ago
You're on for $100. I'm > 99% confident that I won't be fooled by any AI before 2023, and would have bet any amount that I could afford to set aside. Ideal weather at slow speeds, with a professional human driver throwing road-condition curveballs at you and challenging your responses? I like my chances.
- p1esk 6y ago
  Sounds good! My email is in my profile, if I'm wrong I'll pay up! :) Keep in mind that you would have to differentiate bot's responses from those of an old truck driver, a snobby philosophy student, a conspiracy theorist, a stoner, a bimbo following latest Kardashians news, etc. Lots of different personalities of real humans who can throw curveballs at you during a chat session. I hope you don't expect to only chat with bay area devs? :)
  - inimino 6y ago
    I'd be very disappointed if I only get bay area devs (since that's a miniscule fraction of the people I've had the pleasure of having interesting discussions with during my life). And indeed, "give me a few sentences about your background, schooling, and interests" is an excellent opening question ;)