5 ms·

Where did 0.3% come from.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... > As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people. Note that the Crude Mortality Rate will continue to increase as more infections and deaths occur (see notes under the paragraph "Herd Immunity" below for details). From a Google search of “Covid mortality rate”. As a healthy person, I would remain comfortable even if the death rate is substantially higher under the assumption that one can’t self quarantine forever and infection is inevitable.
- throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
  From your own link: "Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover)" So 1.4%, about 4.67 times higher than what you say. That said I may have misunderstood so corrections welcome.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Not a domain expert, perhaps I misinterpreted the rate posted (CMR vs IFR). I’m still comfortable with those odds you commented with (1.4%). If I was twice my age or had underlying health issues, I might be more concerned, but this falls within my personal risk tolerance. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-risk-of-covid-19-in-perspective.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-ris... (New York Times: Putting the Risk of Covid-19 in Perspective)
    - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
      You're assuming rather a lot. I don't want to be alarming etc. but you're being a touch complacent. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52506669 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52506669 She said: "We are seeing that patients are suffering from moderate to severe acute kidney injury in about 20-30% of patients and 30% of patients who are admitted to intensive care for Covid infection are requiring dialysis so the numbers are much bigger than we envisaged based on the data coming out of China." (published May 2nd) It's not die-or-recover-completely.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        I’m being pragmatic with a touch of nihilism, although I can see how that would appear to be complacent or caviler to an observer. I’m unwilling to live in my home as if it’s a moon base until a vaccine is developed, which could be 6-18 months from now, but as I mention elsewhere in this thread I wear a mask whenever I’m in public (to prevent impacting others if I happen to be a carrier but am asymptomatic). If you’re concerned for my health, appreciate it, but we’re all dead eventually.
        deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Can you elaborate on what you mean by "remain comfortable"? You mention in another comment that you do wear a mask. Are there other things you would do if they were simple and were likely to, if done by a statistically substantial number of people, save lives? Getting people to wear masks (not even all the time everywhere, just in public buildings/crowds) and stay home when they are obviously sick will make a huge difference, but we as a country seem to have said "fuck it, that's too hard".
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Propose something else simple to do beyond wearing a mask, washing and sanitizing hands frequently, etc. Self quarantine is not simple, and it is unreasonable to request it indefinitely.
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      Fly less. Avoid dense crowds. Etc.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        We don’t fly at all (lot of miles expected on the EVs this year, single use nitrile gloves for handling Supercharger stall cabling). We avoid all crowds (requested refunds for upcoming concerts instead of electing to go). Anything else?
        maxerickson 6y ago
        Did you avoid crowds prior to Covid, or is that something you do differently but didn't acknowledge? How about temperature checks after potential exposure? I also think you are missing my point. I'm not trying to enumerate all the possibilities, I'm pointing to there being quite a lot of options between quarantine and going back to life the way it was. If we talk about things like concerts being choices, more people look at them that way. If we figure out the small mitigations that make the biggest difference and get them widely adopted, everybody wins.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... > As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people. Note that the Crude Mortality Rate will continue to increase as more infections and deaths occur (see notes under the paragraph "Herd Immunity" below for details). From a Google search of “Covid mortality rate”. As a healthy person, I would remain comfortable even if the death rate is substantially higher under the assumption that one can’t self quarantine forever and infection is inevitable.

throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
From your own link: "Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover)" So 1.4%, about 4.67 times higher than what you say. That said I may have misunderstood so corrections welcome.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Not a domain expert, perhaps I misinterpreted the rate posted (CMR vs IFR). I’m still comfortable with those odds you commented with (1.4%). If I was twice my age or had underlying health issues, I might be more concerned, but this falls within my personal risk tolerance. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-risk-of-covid-19-in-perspective.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/well/live/putting-the-ris... (New York Times: Putting the Risk of Covid-19 in Perspective)
  - throwaway_pdp09 6y ago
    You're assuming rather a lot. I don't want to be alarming etc. but you're being a touch complacent. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52506669 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52506669 She said: "We are seeing that patients are suffering from moderate to severe acute kidney injury in about 20-30% of patients and 30% of patients who are admitted to intensive care for Covid infection are requiring dialysis so the numbers are much bigger than we envisaged based on the data coming out of China." (published May 2nd) It's not die-or-recover-completely.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      I’m being pragmatic with a touch of nihilism, although I can see how that would appear to be complacent or caviler to an observer. I’m unwilling to live in my home as if it’s a moon base until a vaccine is developed, which could be 6-18 months from now, but as I mention elsewhere in this thread I wear a mask whenever I’m in public (to prevent impacting others if I happen to be a carrier but am asymptomatic). If you’re concerned for my health, appreciate it, but we’re all dead eventually.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
maxerickson 6y ago
Can you elaborate on what you mean by "remain comfortable"? You mention in another comment that you do wear a mask. Are there other things you would do if they were simple and were likely to, if done by a statistically substantial number of people, save lives? Getting people to wear masks (not even all the time everywhere, just in public buildings/crowds) and stay home when they are obviously sick will make a huge difference, but we as a country seem to have said "fuck it, that's too hard".
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Propose something else simple to do beyond wearing a mask, washing and sanitizing hands frequently, etc. Self quarantine is not simple, and it is unreasonable to request it indefinitely.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    Fly less. Avoid dense crowds. Etc.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      We don’t fly at all (lot of miles expected on the EVs this year, single use nitrile gloves for handling Supercharger stall cabling). We avoid all crowds (requested refunds for upcoming concerts instead of electing to go). Anything else?
      - maxerickson 6y ago
        Did you avoid crowds prior to Covid, or is that something you do differently but didn't acknowledge? How about temperature checks after potential exposure? I also think you are missing my point. I'm not trying to enumerate all the possibilities, I'm pointing to there being quite a lot of options between quarantine and going back to life the way it was. If we talk about things like concerts being choices, more people look at them that way. If we figure out the small mitigations that make the biggest difference and get them widely adopted, everybody wins.