4 ms·

Urban Living Might Just Survive Coronavirus

15 points by wallflower 6y ago

theklr 6y ago
Love our media’s finest in speculating that it was the “end of cities” in less than quarter. I despise how much our media depends on numbers that the blur between gossip and news is dwindling further
gringoDan 6y ago
Cities aren't dead. And a majority of people don't have the luxury of being able to work remote or move away from their jobs. There was never going to be a "mass exodus" from cities. Rather, a subset of the people who could afford to leave and can work remote would leave. That is driving down rents and attracting the young people who still want to live in cities like New York.
- BobbyJo 6y ago
  While I don't think cities are dead, I think COVID has changed the balance of how centralized society will be. It's added a cost that didn't exist previously, and higher cost means lower demand. As for the exodus, it is already happening to a degree in the Bay Area. People may come along and fill the gap eventually, but given the new cost I don't think demand will ever be what it used to be. Additionally, the Bay Areas growth in the last decade was driven almost entirely by an industry who's job are very easy to make remote, so there's an extra point against things bouncing back to before, at least here in SV. I know New York has benefitted from tech growth in the last decade as well, but it's still much more diversified than SV and will likely get off a little easier.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
DeonPenny 6y ago
Most of the people in urban places are young. Many are completely ignoring the lockdown orders or using parks as replacement bars. I don't believing the max exodus even for tech. The whole idea of random ideas sparking from random interactions is still an unappreciated benefit of offices.
omosubi 6y ago
The exodus idea always seemed off to me - cities have the best culture, the best services, the best educational institutions, and the best opportunities, among other things. There's no small or even midsize town that can replicate that.
- refurb 6y ago
  Agreed. If you're willing to put up with crazy expensive real estate, higher crime and every other problem SF has, you obviously value living here a lot!
- est31 6y ago
  Cities have a special kind of "city culture". It's not better or worse than the country side, but it rather depends on your tastes. Some cities have tons of artists, those have better cultures. But many cities don't. As for the services, in smaller or midsize towns they are usually much cheaper at the same quality because they don't have to pay 10s of thousands of USD in rent each month. If you have high standards and only want the high quality services, then the air gets admittedly thin quite quickly. As for educational institutions, it depends on your country. In my home country of Germany, they are pretty comparable between countryside and cities, but I've heard bad stories about the US. In fact, the city states Bremen and Berlin are renown for having low educational standards compared to the remainder of the country. As for opportunities, I agree that this has been the main pull factor for many people. You simply couldn't get a good job in small to mid size towns. But that might change as we transition into the post-Covid world. The core issue is that many middle class people (including non-FAANG-level earning tech folks) simply can't afford life in cities, or the life they can afford includes having roommates while they could easily buy a house with a garden in the countryside with a couple years worth of rent.
- parsimo2010 6y ago
  This is a very egocentric viewpoint. Just because you think something is clearly better doesn’t mean everyone agrees with you. Example: I’m in the middle of a move right now for work. I’m selling a 2,500 square foot house on a corner lot in suburbia with a nice porch and three car garage. I’m moving to an 850 square foot apartment in a big city and paying the same rent as my mortgage. I get one parking space so I have to sell two of my cars. I’m trading a ton of privacy and living space to get the benefits of a big city. A lot of people don’t think the trade is worth it, especially people with families.
giacaglia 6y ago
I was a bit skeptical at the beginning of people moving out of cities. But in my building the occupancy rate went from 100% to 70% during the pandemic and they are not going back. I've heard similar stories from friends that live in apartment buildings. It might just be anecdotal, but we will see
- goatlover 6y ago
  Pandemics are temporary, while the attraction of city life persists over millennia. If there any truth to such predictions, cities would have permanently dwindled after previous pandemics. Most of which were deadlier than Covid.
- refurb 6y ago
  I've heard from a few people that they aren't leaving permanently. Their attitude is if my company is work from home for the foreseeable future, why not work remote until they make me come back to the office?
vmception 6y ago
The reality is that people independently could observe that they simply don't live in a nursing home. The people that were [always] going to retreat to their at-risk parents house and chance infecting them already did so at the beginning of shelter-in-place. We are talking the most compliant people, the polar opposite from the "its just a the flu" folks, they all independently observe the risk profile after most of the vectors for dangerous spread left. Not an endorsement. Good luck!
FuckButtons 6y ago
If cities can survive the Black Death they will survive this.
kgin 6y ago
In my experience, “everyone” eventually leaves NYC. After 12 years, I have only one friend left from when I moved here. The average tour of duty in NYC is 5-6 years. Covid accelerated that timeline for many people, but they would have left anyhow, eventually.
- jshaqaw 6y ago
  Still here 24 years later. Not everyone leaves but yes you do see waves. A lot of people come for their 20s and then bail to go back where they came from to settle down. Then ten years later another wave leaves for the suburbs when their lifestyles no longer match up with urban living. And then there are lifers like me who love it here and hope to be here forever.
  - kgin 6y ago
    Definitely not everyone. But the percentages must be at least 90%. Maybe even 95%?

15 points by wallflower 6y ago

Love our media’s finest in speculating that it was the “end of cities” in less than quarter. I despise how much our media depends on numbers that the blur between gossip and news is dwindling further

gringoDan 6y ago

Cities aren't dead. And a majority of people don't have the luxury of being able to work remote or move away from their jobs. There was never going to be a "mass exodus" from cities. Rather, a subset of the people who could afford to leave and can work remote would leave. That is driving down rents and attracting the young people who still want to live in cities like New York.

BobbyJo 6y ago
While I don't think cities are dead, I think COVID has changed the balance of how centralized society will be. It's added a cost that didn't exist previously, and higher cost means lower demand. As for the exodus, it is already happening to a degree in the Bay Area. People may come along and fill the gap eventually, but given the new cost I don't think demand will ever be what it used to be. Additionally, the Bay Areas growth in the last decade was driven almost entirely by an industry who's job are very easy to make remote, so there's an extra point against things bouncing back to before, at least here in SV. I know New York has benefitted from tech growth in the last decade as well, but it's still much more diversified than SV and will likely get off a little easier.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

DeonPenny 6y ago

Most of the people in urban places are young. Many are completely ignoring the lockdown orders or using parks as replacement bars. I don't believing the max exodus even for tech. The whole idea of random ideas sparking from random interactions is still an unappreciated benefit of offices.

omosubi 6y ago

The exodus idea always seemed off to me - cities have the best culture, the best services, the best educational institutions, and the best opportunities, among other things. There's no small or even midsize town that can replicate that.

refurb 6y ago
Agreed. If you're willing to put up with crazy expensive real estate, higher crime and every other problem SF has, you obviously value living here a lot!
est31 6y ago
Cities have a special kind of "city culture". It's not better or worse than the country side, but it rather depends on your tastes. Some cities have tons of artists, those have better cultures. But many cities don't. As for the services, in smaller or midsize towns they are usually much cheaper at the same quality because they don't have to pay 10s of thousands of USD in rent each month. If you have high standards and only want the high quality services, then the air gets admittedly thin quite quickly. As for educational institutions, it depends on your country. In my home country of Germany, they are pretty comparable between countryside and cities, but I've heard bad stories about the US. In fact, the city states Bremen and Berlin are renown for having low educational standards compared to the remainder of the country. As for opportunities, I agree that this has been the main pull factor for many people. You simply couldn't get a good job in small to mid size towns. But that might change as we transition into the post-Covid world. The core issue is that many middle class people (including non-FAANG-level earning tech folks) simply can't afford life in cities, or the life they can afford includes having roommates while they could easily buy a house with a garden in the countryside with a couple years worth of rent.
parsimo2010 6y ago
This is a very egocentric viewpoint. Just because you think something is clearly better doesn’t mean everyone agrees with you. Example: I’m in the middle of a move right now for work. I’m selling a 2,500 square foot house on a corner lot in suburbia with a nice porch and three car garage. I’m moving to an 850 square foot apartment in a big city and paying the same rent as my mortgage. I get one parking space so I have to sell two of my cars. I’m trading a ton of privacy and living space to get the benefits of a big city. A lot of people don’t think the trade is worth it, especially people with families.

giacaglia 6y ago

I was a bit skeptical at the beginning of people moving out of cities. But in my building the occupancy rate went from 100% to 70% during the pandemic and they are not going back. I've heard similar stories from friends that live in apartment buildings. It might just be anecdotal, but we will see

goatlover 6y ago
Pandemics are temporary, while the attraction of city life persists over millennia. If there any truth to such predictions, cities would have permanently dwindled after previous pandemics. Most of which were deadlier than Covid.
refurb 6y ago
I've heard from a few people that they aren't leaving permanently. Their attitude is if my company is work from home for the foreseeable future, why not work remote until they make me come back to the office?

vmception 6y ago

The reality is that people independently could observe that they simply don't live in a nursing home. The people that were [always] going to retreat to their at-risk parents house and chance infecting them already did so at the beginning of shelter-in-place. We are talking the most compliant people, the polar opposite from the "its just a the flu" folks, they all independently observe the risk profile after most of the vectors for dangerous spread left. Not an endorsement. Good luck!

FuckButtons 6y ago

If cities can survive the Black Death they will survive this.

kgin 6y ago

In my experience, “everyone” eventually leaves NYC. After 12 years, I have only one friend left from when I moved here. The average tour of duty in NYC is 5-6 years. Covid accelerated that timeline for many people, but they would have left anyhow, eventually.

jshaqaw 6y ago
Still here 24 years later. Not everyone leaves but yes you do see waves. A lot of people come for their 20s and then bail to go back where they came from to settle down. Then ten years later another wave leaves for the suburbs when their lifestyles no longer match up with urban living. And then there are lifers like me who love it here and hope to be here forever.
- kgin 6y ago
  Definitely not everyone. But the percentages must be at least 90%. Maybe even 95%?