5 ms·

Housing more people is an engineering problem: materials, construction techniques, density, cost. It’s the aesthetics and social justice crowd insisting that th

Housing more people is an engineering problem: materials, construction techniques, density, cost. It’s the aesthetics and social justice crowd insisting that the engineering techniques we have must not be used (for example demanding onsite union labor at prevailing local wages instead of trucking in prefab components from a cheaper labor market).

toomuchtodo 6y ago
No. Housing more people is a people/politics/wealth distribution problem. The engineering portion is trivial. Even if you truck in prefab, where will you put it if no one will zone or sell you the land to place it on? Everyone wants to be upwardly mobile, and many signal status with their housing. Would you live in a trailer park with your kids? Would you invite your coworkers over for game night to the double wide? No one wants to live next to trailer parks, I know because I try to buy and build them. Existing trailer parks are valuable because zoning for new ones is incredibly difficult, and the cap rates (return on investment) are higher than single family homes or smaller multi family. Perhaps you'll argue that prefab isn't a trailer. Fair. People still want to live in the best neighborhood with the best schools their money can buy, which is rarely a prefab or inexpensively constructed community (see: signaling, with a dash of entrenched interests such as taxing authorities and builder profits). Remember white flight? Very similar. Humans are tribal, will always seek status, and always measure themselves against others. These are deep rooted socioeconomic problems to solve. It's not just a matter of spitting housing out of a factory Gigafactory style.
- closeparen 6y ago
  I think we are in agreement here. The technical solutions exist but are excluded for emotional reasons.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Agreed.
darksaints 6y ago
It is a legal problem. 70% of my housing costs are due to land costs, construction and taxes accounting for the rest. When zoning prohibits dense building, everybody is forced to buy (or rent) more land than they need.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  > When zoning prohibits dense building, everybody is forced to buy (or rent) more land than they need. People don't mind. If you note, demand for suburban properties is still high. The more land you buy, the less density = better quality of life while also appreciating in value year over year. If people wanted dense city life, why are they fleeing metros now that they can work remote? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-update-people-flee-cities-to-live-in-suburbs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-update-people-fl... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-eyeing-homes-in-the-suburbs-as-pent-up-demand-hits-housing-market-2020-06-17 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-eyeing-homes... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exodus-suburbs-remote-working-pandemic-protests https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exo...
  - heavyset_go 6y ago
    > https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exodus-suburbs-remote-working-pandemic-protests https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exo... You're aware of how the pandemic uniquely impacted New York, causing 17,000+ deaths in the city alone, along with the massive lock down that accompanied them, right?
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      I am. If you want to have a longer look back period pre-COVID, here are the top 10 fastest growing counties in the US. Majority are sprawl (Texas, Florida, Arizona). https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estimates-county-metro.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estimate...
heavyset_go 6y ago
It doesn't cost much to build housing, it's the cost of land underneath it and the zoning that are problems.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

No. Housing more people is a people/politics/wealth distribution problem. The engineering portion is trivial. Even if you truck in prefab, where will you put it if no one will zone or sell you the land to place it on? Everyone wants to be upwardly mobile, and many signal status with their housing. Would you live in a trailer park with your kids? Would you invite your coworkers over for game night to the double wide? No one wants to live next to trailer parks, I know because I try to buy and build them. Existing trailer parks are valuable because zoning for new ones is incredibly difficult, and the cap rates (return on investment) are higher than single family homes or smaller multi family. Perhaps you'll argue that prefab isn't a trailer. Fair. People still want to live in the best neighborhood with the best schools their money can buy, which is rarely a prefab or inexpensively constructed community (see: signaling, with a dash of entrenched interests such as taxing authorities and builder profits). Remember white flight? Very similar. Humans are tribal, will always seek status, and always measure themselves against others. These are deep rooted socioeconomic problems to solve. It's not just a matter of spitting housing out of a factory Gigafactory style.

closeparen 6y ago
I think we are in agreement here. The technical solutions exist but are excluded for emotional reasons.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Agreed.

darksaints 6y ago

It is a legal problem. 70% of my housing costs are due to land costs, construction and taxes accounting for the rest. When zoning prohibits dense building, everybody is forced to buy (or rent) more land than they need.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
> When zoning prohibits dense building, everybody is forced to buy (or rent) more land than they need. People don't mind. If you note, demand for suburban properties is still high. The more land you buy, the less density = better quality of life while also appreciating in value year over year. If people wanted dense city life, why are they fleeing metros now that they can work remote? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-update-people-flee-cities-to-live-in-suburbs.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/18/coronavirus-update-people-fl... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-eyeing-homes-in-the-suburbs-as-pent-up-demand-hits-housing-market-2020-06-17 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-eyeing-homes... https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exodus-suburbs-remote-working-pandemic-protests https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exo...
- heavyset_go 6y ago
  > https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exodus-suburbs-remote-working-pandemic-protests https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exo... You're aware of how the pandemic uniquely impacted New York, causing 17,000+ deaths in the city alone, along with the massive lock down that accompanied them, right?
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    I am. If you want to have a longer look back period pre-COVID, here are the top 10 fastest growing counties in the US. Majority are sprawl (Texas, Florida, Arizona). https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estimates-county-metro.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/estimate...

heavyset_go 6y ago

It doesn't cost much to build housing, it's the cost of land underneath it and the zoning that are problems.