5 ms·

The overruns happen due to red tape and the overall loss of the heavy industry capability/capacity brought on - and these are the specific problems federal subs

The overruns happen due to red tape and the overall loss of the heavy industry capability/capacity brought on - and these are the specific problems federal subsidies are supposed to tackle. Deaths per TWH for solar and wind have proven much higher than nuclear and that's before including their dependence on natural gas which is higher still. Utility scale batteries are so far still for peak shaving which is wonderful because the simple cycle plants they displace are super efficient, but won't be replacing combined cycle in our lifetimes. IIRC the issue in texas was due the the way they've separated generation vs distribution responsibilities for their market model but it's been a while since I've taken a close look.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
> The overruns happen due to red tape and the overall loss of the heavy industry capability/capacity brought on - and these are the specific problems federal subsidies are supposed to tackle. This might have mattered a decade or two ago, but that time has passed. Solar and wind have enormous momentum behind them, and they will only continue to scale up faster. [1] [2] > Deaths per TWH for solar and wind have proven much higher than nuclear and that's before including their dependence on natural gas which is higher still. Modern renewables are roughly as safe as nuclear [3]. > Utility scale batteries are so far still for peak shaving which is wonderful because the simple cycle plants they displace are super efficient, but won't be replacing combined cycle in our lifetimes. Enormous amounts of battery manufacturing capacity is coming online for EV production [4]. Elon said on Tesla's last earnings call that demand for batteries for utility scale storage is tremendous and they can't keep up with demand [5]. I'll take the other side of that bet: overbuilt renewables, hydro, HVDC transmission across long distances, and battery storage will be enough to deprecate natural gas from the grid. South Australia's grid operator is already nervously preparing for distributed renewables generating so much power, there will be times where there is no net demand on the grid ("But it’s the latest “first” that is putting the wind up the state government and the market operator: Within one to three years, they say, South Australia could become the first gigawatt scale grid in the world where the growing amount of rooftop solar effectively eliminates grid demand."). [6] [1] https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [2] https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/6/18/18681591/renewable-energy-china-solar-pv-jobs https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/6/18/1868159... [3] https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy#modern-renewables-are-about-as-safe-as-nuclear-energy https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy#modern-r... [4] https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/global-lithium-ion-battery-planned-capacity-update-9-growth-in-a-single-month-march-charts/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/global-lithium-ion-batt... [5] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/tremendous-demand-for-stationary-storage-outstrips-teslas-2020-supply-ca/577157/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/tremendous-demand-for-stati... [6] https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-the-first-big-grid-where-rooftop-solar-could-eliminate-all-demand-73229/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-the-first-big-gr...
- andromeduck 6y ago
  Your analysis wrt deaths completely ignores intermittency. Overbuilding is a good solution esp when combined with battery or pumped storage but note that that would also necessarily increase material costs and human costs vs nuclear and geothermal. The momentum for both is good but again until we get that be 3-4 orders of magnitude improvement in scale required to do without gas. Until then having a mixed portfolio with greater emphasis on nuclear and geothermal will be a better option. HVDC grids are also great but IMO less often considered are the risks of relying on continental grids so much such as the increased susceptibility to brittle failure at a system level and vulnerability as a soft target to economic terrorism/hybrid war. Again, blindly extrapolating from immediate is not helpful. The same logic caused half of HN to claim that datacenters wouldn't use HDD/Tape anymore because SSDs would be so much cheaper than everything else because moore's. And that's before considering Elon's egregious track record and obvious conflict of interest.
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    I am not an expert, but simply an enthusiast. The Center for Environmental Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley just released a report that arrives at a similar conclusion. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23580707 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23580707 https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-90-percent-clean-electricity-by-2035-dependably-and-without-increasing-consumer-bills https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-... > The United States can deliver 90 percent clean, carbon-free electricity nationwide by 2035, dependably, at no extra cost to consumer bills and without the need for new fossil fuel plants, according to a study released today from the Center for Environmental Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. The study also finds that without robust policy reforms, most of the potential to reduce emissions and increase jobs would not be realized. 2035 Report: Plummeting Solar, Wind, and Battery Costs Can Accelerate Our Clean Energy Future is the first study of its kind to show how recent cost declines for solar, wind, and battery storage allow the U.S. to dramatically reduce generation and emissions from existing fossil power plants, while retiring coal and reducing gas generation by 70 percent.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

> The overruns happen due to red tape and the overall loss of the heavy industry capability/capacity brought on - and these are the specific problems federal subsidies are supposed to tackle. This might have mattered a decade or two ago, but that time has passed. Solar and wind have enormous momentum behind them, and they will only continue to scale up faster. [1] [2] > Deaths per TWH for solar and wind have proven much higher than nuclear and that's before including their dependence on natural gas which is higher still. Modern renewables are roughly as safe as nuclear [3]. > Utility scale batteries are so far still for peak shaving which is wonderful because the simple cycle plants they displace are super efficient, but won't be replacing combined cycle in our lifetimes. Enormous amounts of battery manufacturing capacity is coming online for EV production [4]. Elon said on Tesla's last earnings call that demand for batteries for utility scale storage is tremendous and they can't keep up with demand [5]. I'll take the other side of that bet: overbuilt renewables, hydro, HVDC transmission across long distances, and battery storage will be enough to deprecate natural gas from the grid. South Australia's grid operator is already nervously preparing for distributed renewables generating so much power, there will be times where there is no net demand on the grid ("But it’s the latest “first” that is putting the wind up the state government and the market operator: Within one to three years, they say, South Australia could become the first gigawatt scale grid in the world where the growing amount of rooftop solar effectively eliminates grid demand."). [6] [1] https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [2] https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/6/18/18681591/renewable-energy-china-solar-pv-jobs https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/6/18/1868159... [3] https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy#modern-renewables-are-about-as-safe-as-nuclear-energy https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy#modern-r... [4] https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/global-lithium-ion-battery-planned-capacity-update-9-growth-in-a-single-month-march-charts/ https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/global-lithium-ion-batt... [5] https://www.utilitydive.com/news/tremendous-demand-for-stationary-storage-outstrips-teslas-2020-supply-ca/577157/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/tremendous-demand-for-stati... [6] https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-the-first-big-grid-where-rooftop-solar-could-eliminate-all-demand-73229/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-the-first-big-gr...

andromeduck 6y ago
Your analysis wrt deaths completely ignores intermittency. Overbuilding is a good solution esp when combined with battery or pumped storage but note that that would also necessarily increase material costs and human costs vs nuclear and geothermal. The momentum for both is good but again until we get that be 3-4 orders of magnitude improvement in scale required to do without gas. Until then having a mixed portfolio with greater emphasis on nuclear and geothermal will be a better option. HVDC grids are also great but IMO less often considered are the risks of relying on continental grids so much such as the increased susceptibility to brittle failure at a system level and vulnerability as a soft target to economic terrorism/hybrid war. Again, blindly extrapolating from immediate is not helpful. The same logic caused half of HN to claim that datacenters wouldn't use HDD/Tape anymore because SSDs would be so much cheaper than everything else because moore's. And that's before considering Elon's egregious track record and obvious conflict of interest.
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  I am not an expert, but simply an enthusiast. The Center for Environmental Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley just released a report that arrives at a similar conclusion. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23580707 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23580707 https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-90-percent-clean-electricity-by-2035-dependably-and-without-increasing-consumer-bills https://gspp.berkeley.edu/news/news-center/the-us-can-reach-... > The United States can deliver 90 percent clean, carbon-free electricity nationwide by 2035, dependably, at no extra cost to consumer bills and without the need for new fossil fuel plants, according to a study released today from the Center for Environmental Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. The study also finds that without robust policy reforms, most of the potential to reduce emissions and increase jobs would not be realized. 2035 Report: Plummeting Solar, Wind, and Battery Costs Can Accelerate Our Clean Energy Future is the first study of its kind to show how recent cost declines for solar, wind, and battery storage allow the U.S. to dramatically reduce generation and emissions from existing fossil power plants, while retiring coal and reducing gas generation by 70 percent.