4 ms·

I was on a day hike up a mountain several years back with a group of friends and acquaintances. Some of the folks had really been wanting to get to the top of t

I was on a day hike up a mountain several years back with a group of friends and acquaintances. Some of the folks had really been wanting to get to the top of this particular mountain -- it's known for its views. It was late spring, and we had beautiful weather until we got maybe 3-4 miles in, closing in on the top. At that point there was thick snow still on the ground, it started to get foggy, and (I can't remember exactly why) the trail became harder to recognize. We were equipped for a quick afternoon hike, nothing more -- some of us I think just had t-shirts and shorts -- and some of us started to get nervous. Others really wanted to keep going to the top, especially since we knew we were close (though not how close). We did end up turning around and heading down after just a few hundred feet of walking in the snow. I wonder about our decision from time to time -- were we smart or overly cautious? Would it have been fine or a disaster? I guess there's no easy answer -- you can't know what would have happened.

acangiano 6y ago
It was the right call because even if you were overly cautious, you can always go back again.
- smabie 6y ago
  Not necessarily. You could die and never get the chance, or whatever. There's certainly a cost that you're assuming by not going forward. Not saying it's super high, but it's non-zero.
milesvp 6y ago
Most people have a blind spot in poker. They think they won simply because they took the pot, when in reality they lost because the pot odds were too low to give them a positive expected value. The problem extends to analyzing hands after the fact. It's too easy to see the final outcome, and say, oh, I knew I should have folded, when the reality might be, no calling was the right thing to do given the information you had at the time. Playing a lot of poker taught me to ignore the feeling that I played wrong simply because I lost the pot, and instead analyze what happened, and whether or not I missed some key piece of information, or misinterpreted some behavior. I would say, based on the information you had at the time. You made the smart play. Don't second guess based on possibly being closer than you realized, you were far enough that you couldn't see the end, that means (and most people don't realize this) that without any other information, you had even odds that you were at no more than the half way point (in terms of either time or distance). Maybe you can look back, and can say, "oh, I knew x at the time, I just forgot to take that into account, and it would have been enough to change the risk/reward equation. But any other analysis is dangerous to dwell on.
- wool_gather 6y ago
  Interesting perspective, thanks.
rsecora 6y ago
You do the right thing. Nature can be cruel and merciless. And hypothermia is not just for winter. There are countless histories in the Alps and the Pyrenees of weekend hikers that go up in t-shirts and shorts, and then suddenly the weather change... One of the members of the team fall with hypothermia and an heli need to be dispatched. Taking out resources for other rescues and putting the life of the rescuers at risk. There are discussions in some European countries if the rescued people shall pay in case of fragrant unpreparedness, because it has begun to be quite common.
im3w1l 6y ago
You said it's famous for its views, but I bet the view sucks when it's so foggy you can't see the trail.
- wool_gather 6y ago
  Absolutely true :) I'm sure this had some effect in convincing the eager ones to turn around.

acangiano 6y ago

It was the right call because even if you were overly cautious, you can always go back again.

smabie 6y ago
Not necessarily. You could die and never get the chance, or whatever. There's certainly a cost that you're assuming by not going forward. Not saying it's super high, but it's non-zero.

milesvp 6y ago

Most people have a blind spot in poker. They think they won simply because they took the pot, when in reality they lost because the pot odds were too low to give them a positive expected value. The problem extends to analyzing hands after the fact. It's too easy to see the final outcome, and say, oh, I knew I should have folded, when the reality might be, no calling was the right thing to do given the information you had at the time. Playing a lot of poker taught me to ignore the feeling that I played wrong simply because I lost the pot, and instead analyze what happened, and whether or not I missed some key piece of information, or misinterpreted some behavior. I would say, based on the information you had at the time. You made the smart play. Don't second guess based on possibly being closer than you realized, you were far enough that you couldn't see the end, that means (and most people don't realize this) that without any other information, you had even odds that you were at no more than the half way point (in terms of either time or distance). Maybe you can look back, and can say, "oh, I knew x at the time, I just forgot to take that into account, and it would have been enough to change the risk/reward equation. But any other analysis is dangerous to dwell on.

wool_gather 6y ago
Interesting perspective, thanks.

rsecora 6y ago

You do the right thing. Nature can be cruel and merciless. And hypothermia is not just for winter. There are countless histories in the Alps and the Pyrenees of weekend hikers that go up in t-shirts and shorts, and then suddenly the weather change... One of the members of the team fall with hypothermia and an heli need to be dispatched. Taking out resources for other rescues and putting the life of the rescuers at risk. There are discussions in some European countries if the rescued people shall pay in case of fragrant unpreparedness, because it has begun to be quite common.

im3w1l 6y ago

You said it's famous for its views, but I bet the view sucks when it's so foggy you can't see the trail.

wool_gather 6y ago
Absolutely true :) I'm sure this had some effect in convincing the eager ones to turn around.