4 ms·

Will Facebook become one of the most profitable companies in the world?

17 points by Thomas_Kincaid 16y ago

faragon 16y ago
Shorm-term, may be. Mid-term, may be. Long-term, I hope not.
scottieh 16y ago
Yes -- when a single organization owns the connections, interests and geographical data of 600 million people -- it's inevitable. No other entity has amassed this amount of data before.
- olivercameron 16y ago
  Why is it inevitable? They already run an ad network and their revenue's are nowhere near, for example, Google's. How else can they monetize this data?
  - scottieh 16y ago
    They've barely scratched the surface. And it's not just an ad network... - virtual currency - daily deals - search integrated directly into the experience and that's just off the top of my head
    - olivercameron 16y ago
      Even with those three products, I still find it hard to believe they'd be one of the most profitable companies in the world. If you look at the top 50, it's filled with mainly oil companies, banks, and hardware producers (Microsoft being an exception). Google crept in at 47 due to AdSense, which I think Facebook could overtake. I'm not saying Facebook cannot be wildly profitable, I just don't think it'll come close to the top 10 (what I'd consider to be "the most profitable companies in the world").
- easp 16y ago
  How many of those 600M monthly active users are fake accounts created by webcam and dating site spammers, and mafia wars addicts?
mviamari 16y ago
if their ARPU has as much potential for growth as mentioned in the first comment of the conversation, they could easily surpass Google.
olivercameron 16y ago
I highly doubt they can get near the top 10. They'd first have to battle their way past the heavy weight technology companies, then the banking giants, then Wal-Mart and finally the the ridiculously lucrative oil companies (source: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/performers/companies/profits http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/perfor...). They have to figure out how to monetize a lot more $ per user to be very profitable in the long term.
marcamillion 16y ago
One of the most profitable, perhaps...but I predict that if Dropbox stays independent - it will easily become the most profitable.
- olivercameron 16y ago
  In the tech industry, maybe, but in the world?
  - marcamillion 16y ago
    Oh absolutely. Dropbox is reaching the point where now my father and mother use it. It hasn't reached Facebook levels yet (by that I mean, my grandmother ;)), but it is getting there. But with each incremental user, Dropbox's value increases in an e^x fashion. For more on why I think so, here is a more detailed breakdown: http://marcgayle.com/how-dropbox-is-printing-money http://marcgayle.com/how-dropbox-is-printing-money There is no reason that Dropbox's growth will slow any time soon. It is a fabulous product, and has the referral system built-in. It's the closest elixir to magic I have seen in recent times.
    - olivercameron 16y ago
      I hope it does like you say, it's an awesome product.
    - blhack 16y ago
      I don't think your parents are typical, honestly. I bet if I surveyed my office, nobody here would have any clue what it was. Honestly, the only reason I use dropbox is that it makes getting photos off of my iPhone easy.
      - marcamillion 16y ago
        Well they aren't especially tech-savvy, but I share files with them so they have it installed because of me. My point is that at the rate at which it is growing, it literally is just a matter of time before all your coworkers and parents are using it. It provides a peace of mind knowing that you can easily access your files - that is difficult to find elsewhere. As technology continues to proliferate and more lives move online, people will likely use dropbox. The more people that use Dropbox, is the more profitable they will be. That is to say, their profit margins increase with the number of users they use - and that's not just because their unit costs decrease. It's much more than that.
gnaritas 16y ago
No.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
Ainab 16y ago
It is unlikely they will ever get close to energy (oil) companies. and by the way they need to IPO so that we can know what their revenue and expenses are.

Shorm-term, may be. Mid-term, may be. Long-term, I hope not.

Yes -- when a single organization owns the connections, interests and geographical data of 600 million people -- it's inevitable. No other entity has amassed this amount of data before.

olivercameron 16y ago
Why is it inevitable? They already run an ad network and their revenue's are nowhere near, for example, Google's. How else can they monetize this data?
- scottieh 16y ago
  They've barely scratched the surface. And it's not just an ad network... - virtual currency - daily deals - search integrated directly into the experience and that's just off the top of my head
  - olivercameron 16y ago
    Even with those three products, I still find it hard to believe they'd be one of the most profitable companies in the world. If you look at the top 50, it's filled with mainly oil companies, banks, and hardware producers (Microsoft being an exception). Google crept in at 47 due to AdSense, which I think Facebook could overtake. I'm not saying Facebook cannot be wildly profitable, I just don't think it'll come close to the top 10 (what I'd consider to be "the most profitable companies in the world").
easp 16y ago
How many of those 600M monthly active users are fake accounts created by webcam and dating site spammers, and mafia wars addicts?

mviamari 16y ago

if their ARPU has as much potential for growth as mentioned in the first comment of the conversation, they could easily surpass Google.

olivercameron 16y ago

I highly doubt they can get near the top 10. They'd first have to battle their way past the heavy weight technology companies, then the banking giants, then Wal-Mart and finally the the ridiculously lucrative oil companies (source: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/performers/companies/profits http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2010/perfor...). They have to figure out how to monetize a lot more $ per user to be very profitable in the long term.

marcamillion 16y ago

One of the most profitable, perhaps...but I predict that if Dropbox stays independent - it will easily become the most profitable.

olivercameron 16y ago
In the tech industry, maybe, but in the world?
- marcamillion 16y ago
  Oh absolutely. Dropbox is reaching the point where now my father and mother use it. It hasn't reached Facebook levels yet (by that I mean, my grandmother ;)), but it is getting there. But with each incremental user, Dropbox's value increases in an e^x fashion. For more on why I think so, here is a more detailed breakdown: http://marcgayle.com/how-dropbox-is-printing-money http://marcgayle.com/how-dropbox-is-printing-money There is no reason that Dropbox's growth will slow any time soon. It is a fabulous product, and has the referral system built-in. It's the closest elixir to magic I have seen in recent times.
  - olivercameron 16y ago
    I hope it does like you say, it's an awesome product.
  - blhack 16y ago
    I don't think your parents are typical, honestly. I bet if I surveyed my office, nobody here would have any clue what it was. Honestly, the only reason I use dropbox is that it makes getting photos off of my iPhone easy.
    - marcamillion 16y ago
      Well they aren't especially tech-savvy, but I share files with them so they have it installed because of me. My point is that at the rate at which it is growing, it literally is just a matter of time before all your coworkers and parents are using it. It provides a peace of mind knowing that you can easily access your files - that is difficult to find elsewhere. As technology continues to proliferate and more lives move online, people will likely use dropbox. The more people that use Dropbox, is the more profitable they will be. That is to say, their profit margins increase with the number of users they use - and that's not just because their unit costs decrease. It's much more than that.

gnaritas 16y ago

No.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

Ainab 16y ago

It is unlikely they will ever get close to energy (oil) companies. and by the way they need to IPO so that we can know what their revenue and expenses are.