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>by force It was so forceful, that it was effectively bloodless and an overwhelming portion of the "annexed" populace has actively supported it. Meanwhile sit

by fuoqi 6y ago

>by force It was so forceful, that it was effectively bloodless and an overwhelming portion of the "annexed" populace has actively supported it. Meanwhile situation in Taiwan is drastically different. Pro-mainland faction is really weak and can not be used to provide sufficient support for quiet absorption. And since Taiwan has deep military connections with USA for many decades, any military intervention will inevitably escalate into a major military conflict. The only scenario in which something like that can happen is civil-war-level turmoil in USA. Probability of which, worryingly, is noticeably bigger than zero.

justinclift 6y ago
> It was so forceful, that it was effectively bloodless and an overwhelming portion of the "annexed" populace has actively supported it. That seems like an unusual perspective. If by "bloodless" you mean "lots of people died, but nowhere near as many as a world war" though, then sure. For the "actively supported", where are you getting that information? My impression (from friends in Kiev) is that it's universally condemned.
- fuoqi 6y ago
  By it I mean that only total 6 people have died from both sides, of which only 2 can be attributed to direct actions of Russian armed forces (well, if you trust Ukrainian version of events, which should be taken with a lot of salt, same as with the Russian one). Now compare it with number of deaths in Kiev, Odessa or Donbas. (note that majority of deaths in the latter case are Ukrainian citizens killed directly by Ukrainian army, so much for "war with Russia") >For the "actively supported", where are you getting that information? Directly from Crimeans. I have visited Crimea last year as a tourist and talked with them personally (in Massandra and Alushta, btw the wine is really great, recommend trying it). Try watching 2014 videos, for example this one is before Russian forces have became active: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atm0W5wA2y4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atm0W5wA2y4 If you don't trust my anecdotal experience, then how about "The Crimea conundrum: legitimacy and public opinion after annexation" published in the Eurasian Geography and Economics journal? Or how about "To Russia With Love" article published in Foreign Affairs? They both confirm strong local support in favor of the transfer. >My impression (from friends in Kiev) is that it's universally condemned. I hope you understand that your friend quite probably is really biased regarding this issue, right? Always try looking outside of the media narrative (one may call it soft propaganda), usually world issues are far more complex than the version painted by media.
  - yclept 6y ago
    I think you are purposely narrowly referring to 1 action of many in a crisis that has had >10,000 deaths.
    - fuoqi 6y ago
      Wat? We are discussing the "annexation of Crimea", not the larger context. I just provided examples for comparison to show that the "annexation" itself is indeed can be called "effectively bloodless".
  - kjs3 6y ago
    I hope you understand that your friend quite probably is really biased regarding this issue, right? The irony is strong with this one.
    - fuoqi 6y ago
      Sure, in this particular case my point of view is closer to the Russian narrative, than to the Western one. And some may call it a bias. This is why I've tried to provide sources supporting my position, which are independent from the Russian state.
- kjs3 6y ago
  "Effectively bloodless" and "actively supported" are missing the "as reported in Russian media" and "by the people left". The UN reports something like 13,000 people died and between the UNHCR and the IDMC says there's something like 1.5-2 million people internally displaced by the Crimean annexation. That's in a region with a 2014 population of around 2.3m.
  - fuoqi 6y ago
    Are you serious? Crimean population difference between 2001 and 2014 censuses is less than 5%. And considering that population was slowly dwindling since 90s, number of people who left from Crimea to Ukraine is even less than that. Can you provide any sources claiming that more than 6 people have died in Crimea during 2014 events? I think you are trying to confuse others with numbers describing the Donbas conflict, not the "annexation" as implied in your message. A really low effort fallacy I must say.
    - remarkEon 6y ago
      I think you're being downvoted for tone, but skimming wikipedia ... to my surprise it looks like you're right. 3 soldiers died (1 on the Russian side, 2 on the pro-Ukraine side) and 3 civilians were killed (2 pro-Russian, 1 pro-Ukrainian). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...
    - justinclift 6y ago
      > Can you provide any sources claiming that more than 6 people have died in Crimea during 2014 events? Wow. So, you going to claim this isn't relevant or somehow correct then either? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
- Udik 6y ago
  > lots of people died First time I hear this. Source?
- puppymaster 6y ago
  Correct me if I am wrong but OP was referring to actively supported by more than half of the population in Crimea (pro-russian) but widely condemned outside. I remember reading the same when the war broke out and was used by Russian as justification to invade. Whereas in Taiwan, recent survey shows only 4% identified as Chinese and 90% are willing to defend Taiwan if "China uses force against Taiwan for unification"
  - fuoqi 6y ago
    >I remember reading the same when the war broke out and was used by Russian as justification to invade. Small nitpick: has US invaded Syria in your opinion? Yes, Russia obviously supports Donbas republics, but most of those republics military consists of Ukrainian citizens. In a way it's similar to how US supports Kurds and "moderate opposition". Such situation is really common for civil wars, but I don't think "invasion" is a correct word to use here.
    - justinclift 6y ago
      > I don't think "invasion" is a correct word to use here. Russia literally claimed Ukrainian territory. How is "invasion" in any way the wrong word?
theflyinghorse 6y ago
Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian so that played a massive role ("These aren't invaders, these are our people" sort of take). I wonder if Taiwanese population identifies as strongly with China as Crimeans do with Russia
- tartoran 6y ago
  They don’t but in an event of forceful takeover the PRC propaganda machine could make it look like TW are are willingly joining the larger China.
- riku_iki 6y ago
  > Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian so that played a massive role Per latest census not under Russia control, it was 60% for Russians, and rest were Ukranians and Tatars. It is not overwhelmingly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnicities_and_languages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnici...
  - fuoqi 6y ago
    "Russian" is not only an ethnicity, but also a language (which is a proxy to culture and society values). According to the same Ukrainian census for 77% of Crimeans Russian was a native language. Rejection of forceful ukrainazization was one of the major driving forces behind protests in Crimea and Donbas. I am more than certain that if Russian language was a second official language in Ukraine and rights of minorities were properly respected, then Crimea would have been still part of Ukraine and war in Donbas wouldn't have happened. Plus note, that a significant number of people in Crimea (and in Ukraine) are of mixed blood, so they can easily change their ethnicity based on the current political situation.
    - riku_iki 6y ago
      Russian language had status of official regional language in Crimea by the law: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B_%C2%AB%D0%9E%D0%B1_%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D1%8F%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%C2%BB https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD... I think protests and exodus were result of TV propaganda, amount of disinformation was tremendeus, though Crimeans probably got better life within richer Russia.
iorrus 6y ago
I don’t see a war effort supporting Taiwan playing well in the US domestically. It would be very bloody.

by fuoqi 6y ago

justinclift 6y ago

> It was so forceful, that it was effectively bloodless and an overwhelming portion of the "annexed" populace has actively supported it. That seems like an unusual perspective. If by "bloodless" you mean "lots of people died, but nowhere near as many as a world war" though, then sure. For the "actively supported", where are you getting that information? My impression (from friends in Kiev) is that it's universally condemned.

fuoqi 6y ago
By it I mean that only total 6 people have died from both sides, of which only 2 can be attributed to direct actions of Russian armed forces (well, if you trust Ukrainian version of events, which should be taken with a lot of salt, same as with the Russian one). Now compare it with number of deaths in Kiev, Odessa or Donbas. (note that majority of deaths in the latter case are Ukrainian citizens killed directly by Ukrainian army, so much for "war with Russia") >For the "actively supported", where are you getting that information? Directly from Crimeans. I have visited Crimea last year as a tourist and talked with them personally (in Massandra and Alushta, btw the wine is really great, recommend trying it). Try watching 2014 videos, for example this one is before Russian forces have became active: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atm0W5wA2y4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atm0W5wA2y4 If you don't trust my anecdotal experience, then how about "The Crimea conundrum: legitimacy and public opinion after annexation" published in the Eurasian Geography and Economics journal? Or how about "To Russia With Love" article published in Foreign Affairs? They both confirm strong local support in favor of the transfer. >My impression (from friends in Kiev) is that it's universally condemned. I hope you understand that your friend quite probably is really biased regarding this issue, right? Always try looking outside of the media narrative (one may call it soft propaganda), usually world issues are far more complex than the version painted by media.
- yclept 6y ago
  I think you are purposely narrowly referring to 1 action of many in a crisis that has had >10,000 deaths.
  - fuoqi 6y ago
    Wat? We are discussing the "annexation of Crimea", not the larger context. I just provided examples for comparison to show that the "annexation" itself is indeed can be called "effectively bloodless".
- kjs3 6y ago
  I hope you understand that your friend quite probably is really biased regarding this issue, right? The irony is strong with this one.
  - fuoqi 6y ago
    Sure, in this particular case my point of view is closer to the Russian narrative, than to the Western one. And some may call it a bias. This is why I've tried to provide sources supporting my position, which are independent from the Russian state.
kjs3 6y ago
"Effectively bloodless" and "actively supported" are missing the "as reported in Russian media" and "by the people left". The UN reports something like 13,000 people died and between the UNHCR and the IDMC says there's something like 1.5-2 million people internally displaced by the Crimean annexation. That's in a region with a 2014 population of around 2.3m.
- fuoqi 6y ago
  Are you serious? Crimean population difference between 2001 and 2014 censuses is less than 5%. And considering that population was slowly dwindling since 90s, number of people who left from Crimea to Ukraine is even less than that. Can you provide any sources claiming that more than 6 people have died in Crimea during 2014 events? I think you are trying to confuse others with numbers describing the Donbas conflict, not the "annexation" as implied in your message. A really low effort fallacy I must say.
  - remarkEon 6y ago
    I think you're being downvoted for tone, but skimming wikipedia ... to my surprise it looks like you're right. 3 soldiers died (1 on the Russian side, 2 on the pro-Ukraine side) and 3 civilians were killed (2 pro-Russian, 1 pro-Ukrainian). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...
  - justinclift 6y ago
    > Can you provide any sources claiming that more than 6 people have died in Crimea during 2014 events? Wow. So, you going to claim this isn't relevant or somehow correct then either? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
Udik 6y ago
> lots of people died First time I hear this. Source?
puppymaster 6y ago
Correct me if I am wrong but OP was referring to actively supported by more than half of the population in Crimea (pro-russian) but widely condemned outside. I remember reading the same when the war broke out and was used by Russian as justification to invade. Whereas in Taiwan, recent survey shows only 4% identified as Chinese and 90% are willing to defend Taiwan if "China uses force against Taiwan for unification"
- fuoqi 6y ago
  >I remember reading the same when the war broke out and was used by Russian as justification to invade. Small nitpick: has US invaded Syria in your opinion? Yes, Russia obviously supports Donbas republics, but most of those republics military consists of Ukrainian citizens. In a way it's similar to how US supports Kurds and "moderate opposition". Such situation is really common for civil wars, but I don't think "invasion" is a correct word to use here.
  - justinclift 6y ago
    > I don't think "invasion" is a correct word to use here. Russia literally claimed Ukrainian territory. How is "invasion" in any way the wrong word?

theflyinghorse 6y ago

Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian so that played a massive role ("These aren't invaders, these are our people" sort of take). I wonder if Taiwanese population identifies as strongly with China as Crimeans do with Russia

tartoran 6y ago
They don’t but in an event of forceful takeover the PRC propaganda machine could make it look like TW are are willingly joining the larger China.
riku_iki 6y ago
> Crimean population is overwhelmingly Russian so that played a massive role Per latest census not under Russia control, it was 60% for Russians, and rest were Ukranians and Tatars. It is not overwhelmingly. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnicities_and_languages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea#Ethnici...
- fuoqi 6y ago
  "Russian" is not only an ethnicity, but also a language (which is a proxy to culture and society values). According to the same Ukrainian census for 77% of Crimeans Russian was a native language. Rejection of forceful ukrainazization was one of the major driving forces behind protests in Crimea and Donbas. I am more than certain that if Russian language was a second official language in Ukraine and rights of minorities were properly respected, then Crimea would have been still part of Ukraine and war in Donbas wouldn't have happened. Plus note, that a significant number of people in Crimea (and in Ukraine) are of mixed blood, so they can easily change their ethnicity based on the current political situation.
  - riku_iki 6y ago
    Russian language had status of official regional language in Crimea by the law: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%8B_%C2%AB%D0%9E%D0%B1_%D0%BE%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D1%8F%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%C2%BB https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD... I think protests and exodus were result of TV propaganda, amount of disinformation was tremendeus, though Crimeans probably got better life within richer Russia.

iorrus 6y ago

I don’t see a war effort supporting Taiwan playing well in the US domestically. It would be very bloody.