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Please read the rest of the article. It discusses how China could force TSMC to stop producing chips. It even covers the US foundry, and why it won't make a dif

Please read the rest of the article. It discusses how China could force TSMC to stop producing chips. It even covers the US foundry, and why it won't make a difference.

riku_iki 6y ago
Options listed in article: - direct military invasion - disinformation campaign - trade war with Taiwan - nationalization of old fabs in China - missile strikes on TSMC facilities in Taiwan
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  - Encouraging NK to start the missile rain towards SK (bye bye Samsung)
  - joshuaissac 6y ago
    That does not really help China.
    - mywittyname 6y ago
      It provides cover. Between that, and racial tensions in the US, the US military will have their hands full.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
      I wrote that in reply to - missile strikes on TSMC facilities in Taiwan Wouldn't that be all out war? Then why stopping half way? If the goal is denial/disruption of chip production.
- jariel 6y ago
  Those are not really 'options' because they have existential consequences. 'Missiles'? Really? Anyone can theoretically use 'missiles' to knock out the production capacity of some competitor's fabs. It would be fatal to China's ambitions in everything because the world's reaction would be quite strong. China has a lot of people upset around the world, but a lot of voices are muted because of perceived repercussions, but something 'over the top' would encourage all of those voices to come out at once. Even Russia would have to 'think again' about their relationship.
  - riku_iki 6y ago
    Actually Iran used missiles strikes against Saudi Arabia oil facilities very recently as an argument in negotiation. No strong world reaction.
    - ardy42 6y ago
      > Actually Iran used missiles strikes against Saudi Arabia oil facilities very recently as an argument in negotiation. No strong world reaction. But didn't they do so through proxies, which gives them at least a little deniability?
      - riku_iki 6y ago
        They said it was proxies, but many signs say they executed attack themself.
    - selectodude 6y ago
      The US executed Iran’s top general three months later. While it wasn’t directly related, I would be stunned if it wasn’t at all related.
  - microcolonel 6y ago
    > 'Missiles'? Really? Anyone can theoretically use 'missiles' to knock out the production capacity of some competitor's fabs. Yeah but PRC would totally do it. They already gave the go-ahead to their allies to attack U.S. partners with missiles, a first-party strike is really not hard to imagine.
    - Synaesthesia 6y ago
      Looking at history and the strategic positioning of the forces I’d say the US is more likely to strike first.
  - akoster 6y ago
    You make a point but what I think the author is alluding to the fact that the US and allies have countered Chinese military actions (building bases in international territory) with words. If that track record holds, we may also use words to counter a missile strike on a TSMC fab.
ardy42 6y ago
> Please read the rest of the article. It discusses how China could force TSMC to stop producing chips. It even covers the US foundry, and why it won't make a difference. But all of realistic options listed entail the fatal political defeat of Taiwan, mostly through military action. Existential political threats usually end up as military conflicts, one way or another. The only option that doesn't involve military action is the disinformation campaign, but that's pretty far fetched.
- riku_iki 6y ago
  Trade war looks most promising: Taiwan has 150B trade with China comparing to 100B trade with US.
  - blackrock 6y ago
    What will happen to Taiwan, if China stops trading with Taiwan. Like, a full on boycott. Maybe Taiwan can sell their 150B in products to Americans?
    - throwanem 6y ago
      Sure. Just like farms can switch over from supplying restaurants to supplying grocery stores.
    - m-ee 6y ago
      What would happen to China? Foxconn alone employs hundreds of thousands of people
      - cltsang 6y ago
        We share the same direction of thinking. I think China's greatest threat comes from within. And the brinkmanship is at supply-side structural reform VS unemployment. The risk has never been this high, given 1. belt and road initiative is already half-busted 2. drastic drop of foreign demand due to pandemic 3. cry for decoupling from all wealthy nations And see this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q8oQGBcFdo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q8oQGBcFdo My point is: the Chinese government has been trying to tell people that they don't need to work in the city. They could work in a rural farm and lead a simple life, albeit earning close to nothing.

Please read the rest of the article. It discusses how China could force TSMC to stop producing chips. It even covers the US foundry, and why it won't make a difference.

riku_iki 6y ago

Options listed in article: - direct military invasion - disinformation campaign - trade war with Taiwan - nationalization of old fabs in China - missile strikes on TSMC facilities in Taiwan

LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
- Encouraging NK to start the missile rain towards SK (bye bye Samsung)
- joshuaissac 6y ago
  That does not really help China.
  - mywittyname 6y ago
    It provides cover. Between that, and racial tensions in the US, the US military will have their hands full.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
    I wrote that in reply to - missile strikes on TSMC facilities in Taiwan Wouldn't that be all out war? Then why stopping half way? If the goal is denial/disruption of chip production.
jariel 6y ago
Those are not really 'options' because they have existential consequences. 'Missiles'? Really? Anyone can theoretically use 'missiles' to knock out the production capacity of some competitor's fabs. It would be fatal to China's ambitions in everything because the world's reaction would be quite strong. China has a lot of people upset around the world, but a lot of voices are muted because of perceived repercussions, but something 'over the top' would encourage all of those voices to come out at once. Even Russia would have to 'think again' about their relationship.
- riku_iki 6y ago
  Actually Iran used missiles strikes against Saudi Arabia oil facilities very recently as an argument in negotiation. No strong world reaction.
  - ardy42 6y ago
    > Actually Iran used missiles strikes against Saudi Arabia oil facilities very recently as an argument in negotiation. No strong world reaction. But didn't they do so through proxies, which gives them at least a little deniability?
    - riku_iki 6y ago
      They said it was proxies, but many signs say they executed attack themself.
  - selectodude 6y ago
    The US executed Iran’s top general three months later. While it wasn’t directly related, I would be stunned if it wasn’t at all related.
- microcolonel 6y ago
  > 'Missiles'? Really? Anyone can theoretically use 'missiles' to knock out the production capacity of some competitor's fabs. Yeah but PRC would totally do it. They already gave the go-ahead to their allies to attack U.S. partners with missiles, a first-party strike is really not hard to imagine.
  - Synaesthesia 6y ago
    Looking at history and the strategic positioning of the forces I’d say the US is more likely to strike first.
- akoster 6y ago
  You make a point but what I think the author is alluding to the fact that the US and allies have countered Chinese military actions (building bases in international territory) with words. If that track record holds, we may also use words to counter a missile strike on a TSMC fab.

ardy42 6y ago

> Please read the rest of the article. It discusses how China could force TSMC to stop producing chips. It even covers the US foundry, and why it won't make a difference. But all of realistic options listed entail the fatal political defeat of Taiwan, mostly through military action. Existential political threats usually end up as military conflicts, one way or another. The only option that doesn't involve military action is the disinformation campaign, but that's pretty far fetched.

riku_iki 6y ago
Trade war looks most promising: Taiwan has 150B trade with China comparing to 100B trade with US.
- blackrock 6y ago
  What will happen to Taiwan, if China stops trading with Taiwan. Like, a full on boycott. Maybe Taiwan can sell their 150B in products to Americans?
  - throwanem 6y ago
    Sure. Just like farms can switch over from supplying restaurants to supplying grocery stores.
  - m-ee 6y ago
    What would happen to China? Foxconn alone employs hundreds of thousands of people
    - cltsang 6y ago
      We share the same direction of thinking. I think China's greatest threat comes from within. And the brinkmanship is at supply-side structural reform VS unemployment. The risk has never been this high, given 1. belt and road initiative is already half-busted 2. drastic drop of foreign demand due to pandemic 3. cry for decoupling from all wealthy nations And see this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q8oQGBcFdo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q8oQGBcFdo My point is: the Chinese government has been trying to tell people that they don't need to work in the city. They could work in a rural farm and lead a simple life, albeit earning close to nothing.