7 ms·

I don't understand the military implications. The US has had long range missiles and defenses that are effective with stuff from the 80's and 90's. If China som

I don't understand the military implications. The US has had long range missiles and defenses that are effective with stuff from the 80's and 90's. If China somehow got complete control over TSMC to the point they no longer supplied the US, it doesn't take much to sabotage the factories. If not missiles, then using spies, or attacking the systems that run the factories. This seems like a fragile advantage. Advanced chips don't even give you advantages in cyberwar. Even if this triggered a longer conflict, the US could just buy through other countries that can buy from TSMC. Or just start using consumer off-the-shelf stuff. I'm fairly certain my gaming PC could guide a missile. There's lots of data centers in the US to pull from too. If we lose all access to buying chips tomorrow, how does that affect our weapons?

sneak 6y ago
> If China somehow got complete control over TSMC to the point they no longer supplied the US, it doesn't take much to sabotage the factories. I am told that TSMC has a poison pill setup for their fab(s) for the case where the PLA takes Taiwan by force, which makes sense in the same way that a "driver carries less than $20 in cash" window sticker does.
- Aperocky 6y ago
  That's the point though? Now firms in China can't get it because of arbitrary sanctions from the US. How about nobody gets it, say bye bye to your supply AMD/Apple. That's the stake China is putting on the table.
throwawaygh 6y ago
The USSR lost a war and collapsed. War is about more than just hard power.
- vsareto 6y ago
  Right but the author is saying the world just got a lot more dangerous and I'm wondering how with respect to the military.
openasocket 6y ago
> The US has had long range missiles and defenses that are effective with stuff from the 80's and 90's All of our weapons systems have undergone significant modifications and upgrades since then, which make heavy use of modern computing. Missile seekers can take advantage of this increased computing power to better track targets, especially when being jammed. We could probably develop replacements for these that used less high-end chips, but that will take time and would probably still result in worse performance, and there will likely be certain features that would have to be dropped. > If China somehow got complete control over TSMC to the point they no longer supplied the US, it doesn't take much to sabotage the factories This is true, but it isn't guaranteed, and the PLA could stockpile a whole bunch of chips pre-war to satisfy their wartime production ordnance needs for a least a little while. While this is viable, it becomes a race to the bottom where neither side has access to advanced chips, and is stuck with whatever the advanced weapons they had stockpiled. > I'm fairly certain my gaming PC could guide a missile They need some custom chips, for a couple regions. First is they need to do some digital signal processing stuff that is implemented in hardware. Second is that the chip needs to be rugged: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_computers#MIL_standards_and_specifications https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_computers#MIL_standar...
- mywittyname 6y ago
  I thought the military sourced chips domestically for such applications.
  - openasocket 6y ago
    Not always. TSMC, for example, is one of the only sources of chips for parts of the F-35. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/technology/pentagon-taiwan-tsmc-chipmaker.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/technology/pentagon-taiwa...
kube-system 6y ago
> Advanced chips don't even give you advantages in cyberwar. > If we lose all access to buying chips tomorrow, how does that affect our weapons? Communication is a critical component of war. More processing power can enable better cryptoanalysis used in offence, and to a degree, better ciphers used in defense. Advanced chips definitely give advantages in cyberwar.

sneak 6y ago

> If China somehow got complete control over TSMC to the point they no longer supplied the US, it doesn't take much to sabotage the factories. I am told that TSMC has a poison pill setup for their fab(s) for the case where the PLA takes Taiwan by force, which makes sense in the same way that a "driver carries less than $20 in cash" window sticker does.

Aperocky 6y ago
That's the point though? Now firms in China can't get it because of arbitrary sanctions from the US. How about nobody gets it, say bye bye to your supply AMD/Apple. That's the stake China is putting on the table.

throwawaygh 6y ago

The USSR lost a war and collapsed. War is about more than just hard power.

vsareto 6y ago
Right but the author is saying the world just got a lot more dangerous and I'm wondering how with respect to the military.

openasocket 6y ago

> The US has had long range missiles and defenses that are effective with stuff from the 80's and 90's All of our weapons systems have undergone significant modifications and upgrades since then, which make heavy use of modern computing. Missile seekers can take advantage of this increased computing power to better track targets, especially when being jammed. We could probably develop replacements for these that used less high-end chips, but that will take time and would probably still result in worse performance, and there will likely be certain features that would have to be dropped. > If China somehow got complete control over TSMC to the point they no longer supplied the US, it doesn't take much to sabotage the factories This is true, but it isn't guaranteed, and the PLA could stockpile a whole bunch of chips pre-war to satisfy their wartime production ordnance needs for a least a little while. While this is viable, it becomes a race to the bottom where neither side has access to advanced chips, and is stuck with whatever the advanced weapons they had stockpiled. > I'm fairly certain my gaming PC could guide a missile They need some custom chips, for a couple regions. First is they need to do some digital signal processing stuff that is implemented in hardware. Second is that the chip needs to be rugged: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_computers#MIL_standards_and_specifications https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_computers#MIL_standar...

mywittyname 6y ago
I thought the military sourced chips domestically for such applications.
- openasocket 6y ago
  Not always. TSMC, for example, is one of the only sources of chips for parts of the F-35. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/technology/pentagon-taiwan-tsmc-chipmaker.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/technology/pentagon-taiwa...

kube-system 6y ago

> Advanced chips don't even give you advantages in cyberwar. > If we lose all access to buying chips tomorrow, how does that affect our weapons? Communication is a critical component of war. More processing power can enable better cryptoanalysis used in offence, and to a degree, better ciphers used in defense. Advanced chips definitely give advantages in cyberwar.