4 ms·

> A better explanation for the leveling off is simply that social distancing and lockdowns have reduced the spread of the virus. You are probably correct, but

> A better explanation for the leveling off is simply that social distancing and lockdowns have reduced the spread of the virus. You are probably correct, but it still seems to be the case that the virus spread is slowing faster than expected even with relaxations of lockdown measures. I suspect the explanation is complex. It is probably a combination of factors: individual awareness in reducing social contact, northern hemisphere summer, and individual variability. It's probably not the case that a large proportion of people are immune, but there might be big differences in susceptibility. The examples you mention are either from early in the pandemic where social distancing rules were less habituated, or enclosed environments where transmission is harder to avoid. I'm just guessing, but this would support the European strategy of initial lockdown followed by moderate social controls if outbreaks become more controllable after the initial surge.

tomp 6y ago
Why do you think "northern hemisphere summer" would have any (positive) impact? I mean, just look at Brazil, an "eternal summer" country, they're not doing that well... Except if it's the combination of heat+low humidity, there might be counterexamples to that as well though (Iran?).
- tpm 6y ago
  People spend much more time outside and the school is off. Also the European summer is mostly not as hot as the Brazilian.
- chimprich 6y ago
  It's a guess, but a plausible one. We know the virus is destroyed quickly by UV light, which is stronger in summer. People spend more time outside in summer, and we know transmission is reduced outside. Other respiratory viruses spread poorly in summer. It's hard to compare with Brazil, because the stats coming out of there are poor and they're making less attempt at controlling the virus compared to almost any other country.
- dalore 6y ago
  It's not the heat but the UV exposure and people's ability to create vitamin D from it. People in countries that have "eternal summer" tend not to go out in the sun as it's hot. Also skin pigmentation is a big factor.
  - hcknwscommenter 6y ago
    "tend not to go out in the sun as it's hot" Is that really true? Most of these "hot" LATAM and asian countries do not have wide-spread central air conditioning. In those countries, staying inside is horrible in the hot months.

tomp 6y ago

Why do you think "northern hemisphere summer" would have any (positive) impact? I mean, just look at Brazil, an "eternal summer" country, they're not doing that well... Except if it's the combination of heat+low humidity, there might be counterexamples to that as well though (Iran?).

tpm 6y ago
People spend much more time outside and the school is off. Also the European summer is mostly not as hot as the Brazilian.
chimprich 6y ago
It's a guess, but a plausible one. We know the virus is destroyed quickly by UV light, which is stronger in summer. People spend more time outside in summer, and we know transmission is reduced outside. Other respiratory viruses spread poorly in summer. It's hard to compare with Brazil, because the stats coming out of there are poor and they're making less attempt at controlling the virus compared to almost any other country.
dalore 6y ago
It's not the heat but the UV exposure and people's ability to create vitamin D from it. People in countries that have "eternal summer" tend not to go out in the sun as it's hot. Also skin pigmentation is a big factor.
- hcknwscommenter 6y ago
  "tend not to go out in the sun as it's hot" Is that really true? Most of these "hot" LATAM and asian countries do not have wide-spread central air conditioning. In those countries, staying inside is horrible in the hot months.