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Except this proves the opposite. When we built, prices skyrocketed. When we stopped building (due to COVID), the prices began dropping. It's a combination of A

Except this proves the opposite. When we built, prices skyrocketed. When we stopped building (due to COVID), the prices began dropping. It's a combination of AirBNB being unable to illegally occupy housing, and the ultra-wealthy having a fear of urban density contagion. Demand is basically unchanged over the last 6 months, and the housing that exists is basically unchanged over the last 6 months, and yet prices are finally falling. It's got basically nothing to do with "supply and demand" for cities (unless your definition of "demand" is so loose as to include literally anything that might impact a pricetag).

TulliusCicero 6y ago
Your reasoning is the tail wagging the dog. Money flooding into an area is obviously going to cause rents to increase as well as incentivize developers to build more to capture some of that moolah as there's more demand for housing. Money flooding out of the area is going to cause both rents to immediately decrease, as well as decrease the incentive to build more housing, because the demand is gone.
hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
> Demand is basically unchanged over the last 6 months I'm calling major BS unless you can back that up with a source. This article talks about the major exodus in NYC: https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/02/new-yorkers-exodus-could-unravel-rent-regulation/ https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/02/new-yorkers-exodus-could-...
renewiltord 6y ago
Construction is still continuing and I don't think it ever stopped. I used to drive by 1550 mission and they were going at it hammer and tongs all through the entire period. So your premise is wrong: we didn't stop building. Most construction is covered as essential work.
tmh79 6y ago
demand has changed quite a bit, lots of people are leaving cities, and fewer people, especially new grads from undergrad and profession school like business/med, are moving in.
mullingitover 6y ago
> When we stopped building (due to COVID), the prices began dropping. Construction didn't stop due to the virus. What did happen was that all the employment gains of the last 12 years were lost. Fewer dollars chasing the same amount of real estate led to lower prices.

TulliusCicero 6y ago

Your reasoning is the tail wagging the dog. Money flooding into an area is obviously going to cause rents to increase as well as incentivize developers to build more to capture some of that moolah as there's more demand for housing. Money flooding out of the area is going to cause both rents to immediately decrease, as well as decrease the incentive to build more housing, because the demand is gone.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago

> Demand is basically unchanged over the last 6 months I'm calling major BS unless you can back that up with a source. This article talks about the major exodus in NYC: https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/02/new-yorkers-exodus-could-unravel-rent-regulation/ https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/02/new-yorkers-exodus-could-...

renewiltord 6y ago

Construction is still continuing and I don't think it ever stopped. I used to drive by 1550 mission and they were going at it hammer and tongs all through the entire period. So your premise is wrong: we didn't stop building. Most construction is covered as essential work.

tmh79 6y ago

demand has changed quite a bit, lots of people are leaving cities, and fewer people, especially new grads from undergrad and profession school like business/med, are moving in.

mullingitover 6y ago

> When we stopped building (due to COVID), the prices began dropping. Construction didn't stop due to the virus. What did happen was that all the employment gains of the last 12 years were lost. Fewer dollars chasing the same amount of real estate led to lower prices.