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I for one am ready and rarin' to go for a housing market crash (or "correction" if you wanna call it that) here in NYC, and strongly encourage everyone who does

I for one am ready and rarin' to go for a housing market crash (or "correction" if you wanna call it that) here in NYC, and strongly encourage everyone who doesn't feel like living here to strike out for the heartland. It'll be a better city all around with fewer people and lower rents.

nemo44x 6y ago
> It'll be a better city all around with fewer people and lower rents. Possibly. It depends who leaves. If it's mainly people that are decently high earners and provide a lot of the tax base, it will be dark days for the city for awhile. Budgets will be cut as a combination of the tourism collapse and loss of income taxes will compound to create a crisis for the city. These things domino quickly as shops close, real estate taxes aren't collected, etc. I think a lot of young people don't really understand how miserable the city was in many ways for about 25 years there before it had a renaissance the last 25 years. I agree that a correction is needed. The rent is too damn high, to be sure.
- ghaff 6y ago
  While I'm sure there are exceptions, I imagine a lot of the people who talk about gentrification or who toss out off-hand comments about the Disney-fication of Times Square never actually saw 42nd Street late at night in the 80s or have conveniently blocked it from their memories.
  - eternalban 6y ago
    I remember it. In fact, I even helped build models for the 42nd street renovations as a side gig in school. Time Square was as filthy and sleazy as one would expect from exposed underbelly of the beast. It is definitely cleaner now, but there is a different repelling aspect to it. But the fact remains that outside of 42nd Street New York City had a genuine character and energy that off the charts and far removed from an open air market mass tourism destintation. I sorely miss sitting in front of Fanneli's in Prince street and nursing a pint and chatting up _neighbors_; or catching the local music scene in Bowery or East Village; or walking gingerly past the 'made guys' on Mott Street while avoiding looking Gotti in the eye; or going to that run-down theatre on St. Marks or that other one near Kennedy Center. One could walk for hours those days without a single side-walk rage incident; and of course our brunch hangouts were accessible if we showed up reasonably early. (Brooklyn is kinda the Manhattan pre Guilliani Light and that is where I have self exiled.) I mean, for God's sake, we used to have a Kid Robbot right on Prince street. Now that store is selling nail polish and makeup. Yes it is cleaner now, but damn I miss that New York.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      Yeah, there are definitely downsides to gentrification without mythologizing 1970s/80s vintage 42nd Street.
mdorazio 6y ago
I've been thinking about this and the problem I keep circling around is that basically everyone I know says the exact same thing (waiting for a housing market drop so they can buy in). That implies that the latent demand in the market is huge and any price drops will immediately be gobbled up by an army of millennials who've been waiting for their chance. The question to me is if there are more homes existing owners can't afford anymore or more buyers with enough money to pick them up when they drop a few percent.
- chadlavi 6y ago
  This is an annoyingly good point, honestly. I'm mostly hoping that a lot of the other millennials who have been waiting their chance are planning to skip town for some cheaper suburbs.
- theflork 6y ago
  that's just one side of the possible story. if housing does drop, other sectors are probably dropping as well. supply might increase as over-leveraged "investors" need to get liquid. that "army of millennials" will feel much less secure at that point so a large portion may decide now is not the time.

nemo44x 6y ago

> It'll be a better city all around with fewer people and lower rents. Possibly. It depends who leaves. If it's mainly people that are decently high earners and provide a lot of the tax base, it will be dark days for the city for awhile. Budgets will be cut as a combination of the tourism collapse and loss of income taxes will compound to create a crisis for the city. These things domino quickly as shops close, real estate taxes aren't collected, etc. I think a lot of young people don't really understand how miserable the city was in many ways for about 25 years there before it had a renaissance the last 25 years. I agree that a correction is needed. The rent is too damn high, to be sure.

ghaff 6y ago
While I'm sure there are exceptions, I imagine a lot of the people who talk about gentrification or who toss out off-hand comments about the Disney-fication of Times Square never actually saw 42nd Street late at night in the 80s or have conveniently blocked it from their memories.
- eternalban 6y ago
  I remember it. In fact, I even helped build models for the 42nd street renovations as a side gig in school. Time Square was as filthy and sleazy as one would expect from exposed underbelly of the beast. It is definitely cleaner now, but there is a different repelling aspect to it. But the fact remains that outside of 42nd Street New York City had a genuine character and energy that off the charts and far removed from an open air market mass tourism destintation. I sorely miss sitting in front of Fanneli's in Prince street and nursing a pint and chatting up _neighbors_; or catching the local music scene in Bowery or East Village; or walking gingerly past the 'made guys' on Mott Street while avoiding looking Gotti in the eye; or going to that run-down theatre on St. Marks or that other one near Kennedy Center. One could walk for hours those days without a single side-walk rage incident; and of course our brunch hangouts were accessible if we showed up reasonably early. (Brooklyn is kinda the Manhattan pre Guilliani Light and that is where I have self exiled.) I mean, for God's sake, we used to have a Kid Robbot right on Prince street. Now that store is selling nail polish and makeup. Yes it is cleaner now, but damn I miss that New York.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Yeah, there are definitely downsides to gentrification without mythologizing 1970s/80s vintage 42nd Street.

mdorazio 6y ago

I've been thinking about this and the problem I keep circling around is that basically everyone I know says the exact same thing (waiting for a housing market drop so they can buy in). That implies that the latent demand in the market is huge and any price drops will immediately be gobbled up by an army of millennials who've been waiting for their chance. The question to me is if there are more homes existing owners can't afford anymore or more buyers with enough money to pick them up when they drop a few percent.

chadlavi 6y ago
This is an annoyingly good point, honestly. I'm mostly hoping that a lot of the other millennials who have been waiting their chance are planning to skip town for some cheaper suburbs.
theflork 6y ago
that's just one side of the possible story. if housing does drop, other sectors are probably dropping as well. supply might increase as over-leveraged "investors" need to get liquid. that "army of millennials" will feel much less secure at that point so a large portion may decide now is not the time.